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  • thecouchcritic1

2022 Melbourne Cup Weights Prediction

Welcome to something I would only be psycho enough to attempt. An entire 2022 Melbourne Cup weights prediction before weights come out tomorrow. Some clarification points before we start. Minimum weight is 58kgs however, I believe this is before allowances are taken into account. Certain horses receive allowances due to certain characteristics. Females always carry 1.5kgs under their ballot position. Northern hemisphere 3yos carry 3kgs less. Southern hemisphere 4yos carry 1.5kgs less. Allowances stack so a 4yo mare will carry 3kg less. Southern hemisphere 3yos carry a lot less, not sure on the figure. Believe the minimum weight regardless of allowance is 50kgs (except 3yos who I believe carry 49kgs at minimum). I have also ignored the ballot clauses as I do not have the best understanding as to how they all work.


Duais and Montefilia are both neck and neck in my eyes for top weight. Both picked up 2 G1s at open grade this year and looked very impressive in doing so. Gold Trip maintains 57kgs as he was 4th in an Arc. Spanish Mission almost got 56.5kgs but figured he had not done quite enough since arriving in Australia. Knights Order gets 55kgs as he is Australias 2nd most proven traditional stayer. Alegron is our top 4yo with 54kgs before allowances. Vow & Declare carries 53kgs but from my understanding, has not passed the first ballot clause yet. Point Nepean carries 52kgs for his Andrew Ramsden win. A hard one to rate was Fengarada who only won a BM64 but did so by 7L. I need to see more before I move him off the bottom weight though. Is Buckhurst rated too low. Serpentine carries 54.5kgs due to his English Derby win but the horse looks gone. If the handicap was based on how they were going (speculative, He would be a fair bit lower). Persan could be argued for 53kgs due to his placing in the Caulfield Cup but his runs since have not been strong. I had no clue how to rate King Of The Castle. His 5L finish behind Sonnyboyliston and Twilight Payment reads very well but had not done a stack before or after. The 52kgs is far higher than his handicap rating would warrant but that run cannot be overlooked.


As for the international ratings, I have given Eldar Eldarov 57kgs before allowances. Deauville Legend gets 56kgs. I am willing to overlook the flops of Camorra and Hoo Ya Mal over the weekend due to strong form prior, each carrying 55.5kgs. In The Fight may be a bit overrated based on accomplishments but certainly not on ability. I do not rate the Ebor form as it typically does not perform well down here in Australia and this race seemed to be no different with Earl of Tyrone not performing well last start. Point King actually received a 1.5kg drop after his last start as the rating was purely speculative at the time and now is more aligned with what his achievements actually suggest.


Now I want to highlight three gallopers that may run in the Caulfield Cup and what their ratings might be. Mr Brightside carries 56.5kgs. He is a 1 time G1 winner at Hcp level but looked dominant in early runs this prep. Could see an argument for less. Nonconformist would be 55.5kgs, having pushed Probabeel at WFA while running second in last years rendition. El Bodegon would carry 55.5kgs. I am already regretting putting him 10th on my Cox Plate list. The Onesto form held up and he beat home Eldar Eldarov who won the St Leger. The reason he only gets 55.5kgs as he is yet to build a proper resume at 3yo level with close finishes at the top level but yet to break through.


Name - Weight - Allowances (if the horse has any) - Best Result (preferably since July 2021)

  1. Point Nepean - 52kgs - 1st 2022 LR Andrew Ramsden 2800m WFA {Qualified}

  2. Duais - 58kgs - 1.5kgs - 1st 2022 G1 Tancred Stakes 2400m WFA

  3. Montefilia - 58kgs - 1.5kgs - 1st 2022 G1 Ranvet Stakes 2000m WFA

  4. Eldar Eldarov - 57kgs - 3kgs - 1st 2022 G1 Queens Vase 2800m 3yo

  5. Gold Trip - 57kgs - 4th 2020 G1 Arc De Triomphe 2400m WFA (Outside Range)

  6. Deauville Legend - 56kgs - 3kgs - 1st 2022 G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes 2400m 3yoC&G

  7. Regal Power - 56kgs - 1st - 2021 G1 Kingston Town Classic 1800m WFA

  8. Spanish Mission - 56kgs - 3rd 2021 G1 Melbourne Cup 3200m Hcp

  9. Camorra - 55.5kgs - 1st 2022 G2 Curragh Cup 2800m WFA

  10. Hoo Ya Mal - 55.5kgs - 3kgs - 2nd 2022 G1 English Derby 2400m 3yo

  11. Without a Fight - 55.5kgs - 1st 2022 G3 Silver Cup Stakes 2800m WFA

  12. Knights Order - 55kgs - 1st 2022 G1 Sydney Cup 3200m Hcp

  13. Loft - 55kgs - 1st 2022 G2 Belmont Gold Cup Stakes 3200m Hcp

  14. Inspirational Girl - 54.5kgs - 1.5kgs - 1st 2022 G2 Blamey Stakes 1600m SW+P

  15. Serpentine - 54.5kgs - 6th 2021 G1 Goodwood Cup 3200m WFA

  16. Western Empire - 54.5kgs - 1st 2022 G1 Railway Stakes 1600m Hcp

  17. Alegron - 54kgs - 1.5kgs - 2nd 2022 G1 ATC Derby 2400m 3yo

  18. Numerian - 54kgs - 1st 2022 G2 Eva Air Q22 2200m WFA

  19. Young Werther - 54kgs - 2nd 2021 G1 Turnbull Stakes 2000m SW+P

  20. Dark Destroyer - 53.5kgs - 1.5kgs - 1st 2022 G1 Tarzino Trophy 1400m WFA

  21. Glint of Hope - 53.5kgs - 3kgs - 1st 2022 G1 SA Oaks 2000m 3yoF

  22. Grand Promenade - 53.5kgs - 6th 2021 G1 Melbourne Cup 3200m Hcp

  23. Hinged - 53.5kgs - 3kgs - 2nd 2022 G1 Vinery Stud Stakes 1850m 3yoF

  24. Sheraz - 53.5kgs - 2nd 2022 G1 Sydney Cup 3200m Hcp

  25. Stockman - 53.5kgs - 2nd 2022 G1 Tancred Stakes 2400m WFA

  26. Alfred Boucher - 53kgs - 1st 2022 C2 Ebor Hcp 3300m Hcp

  27. Chapada - 53kgs - 3rd 2021 G1 Turnbull Stakes 2000m SW+P

  28. Daiquansweet Junior - 53kgs - 3rd 2022 G1 Sydney Cup 3200m Hcp

  29. Earl of Tyrone - 53kgs - 1st 2022 LR Martin Moloney Stakes 2500m Hcp

  30. Sound - 53kgs - 1st 2021 G2 Zipping Classic 2400m WFA

  31. Tralee Rose - 53kgs - 1.5kgs - 1st 2021 G3 Geelong Cup 2400m Hcp

  32. Vow & Declare - 53kgs - 1st 2019 G1 Melbourne Cup 3200m Hcp (Outside Range)

  33. Earlswood - 52.5kgs - 1st 2022 G3 Carlyon Cup 1600m SW+P

  34. Nerve Not Verve - 52.5kgs - 1.5kgs - 1st 2022 G2 Chairmans Hcp 2600m Hcp

  35. Persan - 52.5kgs - 3rd 2021 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m Hcp

  36. Realm Of Flowers - 52.5kgs - 1.5kgs - 1st 2021 LR Andrew Ramsden 2800m WFA (Outside Range)

  37. Regal Lion - 52.5kgs - 1.5kgs - 3rd 2022 G1 NZ Derby 2400m 3yo

  38. Rodrigo Diaz - 52.5kgs - 3rd 2022 G3 Coral Henry Stakes 3200m WFA

  39. Angel of Truth - 52kgs - 3rd 2022 G1 Chipping Norton Stakes 1600m WFA

  40. Buckhurst - 52kgs - 7th 2020 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m Hcp (Outside Range)

  41. Crystal Pegasus - 52kgs - 1st 2022 G3 Mornington Cup 2400m Hcp

  42. Great House - 52kgs - 1st 2021 G3 Hotham Hcp 2500m Hcp

  43. King of the Castle - 52kgs - 4th 2022 G1 Curragh Cup 2800m WFA

  44. Lunar Flare - 52kgs - 1.5kgs - 1st 2022 G2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup 2500m Hcp

  45. Midnight Blue - 52kgs - 1st 2022 G2 Perth Cup 2400m Hcp

  46. Paternal - 52kgs - 1.5kgs - 2nd 2022 G1 Queensland Derby 2400m 3yo

  47. Araphao - 51.5kgs - 1st 2022 G3 Premiers Cup 2000m Hcp

  48. Emissary - 51.5kgs - 1st 2022 LR Heatherlie Hcp 1700m Hcp

  49. High Emocean - 51.5kgs - 1.5kgs - 1st 2022 Open Flemington 2500m Hcp

  50. La Dragontea - 51.5kgs - 1.5kgs - 1st 2021 G2 Canadian Stakes 1810m WFA

  51. Le Don De Vie - 51.5kgs - 1st 2022 LR Caloundra Cup 2400m Hcp

  52. Luncies - 51.5kgs - 3rd 2022 G2 NSW Chairmans Stakes 2600m Hcp

  53. Milford - 51.5kgs - 1st 2022 G3 Easter Cup 2000m Hcp

  54. Point King - 51.5kgs - 3kgs - 1st 2022 LR Vinnie Roe Stakes 2800m 3yo

  55. San Huberto - 51.5kgs - 3rd 2022 LR Sandown Cup 3200m Hcp (Outside Range)

  56. Surefire - 51.5kgs - 2nd 2022 G3 NE Manion Cup 2400m Hcp

  57. Dawn Patrol - 51kgs - 2nd 2021 G3 International Stakes 2000m (Outside Range)

  58. Horrifying - 51kgs - 1st 2022 Open Flemington Cup 2800m Hcp

  59. Interpretation - 51kgs - 1st 2021 LR Vinnie Roe 2800m 3yo

  60. Makram - 51kgs - 1st 2022 Open Flemington 1700m Hcp

  61. Mankayan - 51kgs - 2nd 2021 G3 Hotham Hcp 2000m Hcp

  62. Night Endeavor - 51kgs - 3kgs* - 1st 2022 LR Derby Du Languedoc 2400m 3yo

  63. No Compromise - 51kgs - 1st 2022 G3 NE Manion Cup 2400m Hcp

  64. Sharp N Smart - 51kgs - A lot* - 4th 2022 G1 JJ Atkins Stakes 1600m 2yo

  65. Supernova - 51kgs - 2nd 2019 G2 Bart Cummings Hcp 2500m Hcp

  66. Temple of Artemis - 51kgs - 3kgs*1st 2022 Irish: Chester Hcp 2500m Hcp

  67. Through Irish Eyes - 51kgs - 2nd 2022 G2 Brisbane Cup 3200m Hcp

  68. Durston - 50.5kgs - 1st 2022 LR Wyong Cup 2100m Hcp

  69. English King - 50.5kgs - 2nd 2022 Open Flemington Qlty 2600m Hcp

  70. Francesco Guardi - 50.5kgs - 2nd 2022 G3 Premiers Cup 2000m Hcp

  71. Hezashocka - 50.5kgs - 1st 2022 Open Flemington 2000m Hcp

  72. Le Villi - 50.5kgs - 3kgs* - 3rd 2022 G1 Qld Oaks 2200m 3yoF

  73. Schabau - 50.5kgs - 1st 2021 Open Flemington 2500m Hcp

  74. Smokin Romans - 50.5kgs - 1st 2021 LR Pakenham Cup 2500m Hcp

  75. Team Captain - 50.5kgs - 3rd 2022 LR Pakenham Cup 2500m Hcp

  76. The Amazonian - 50.5kgs - 1st 2022 G3 SA Fillies Classic 2500m 3yoF

  77. The Good Fight - 50.5kgs - 1st 2021 Open Flemington Cup 2800m Hcp

  78. Tigertiger - 50.5kgs - 2nd 2022 G2 Adelaide Cup 3200m Hcp

  79. Uncle Bryn - 50.5kgs - 6th 2022 G2 Lawrence Stakes 1400m WFA

  80. Wyclif - 50.5kgs - 1st 2022 LR Premiers Plate 2037m Hcp

  81. Zeyrek -50.5kgs - 1st 2022 LR Randwick City Cup 2000m Hcp

  82. Attorney - 50kgs - 3rd 2022 LR January Cup 2000m Hcp

  83. Corncrake - 50kgs - 6th 2022 BM90 Doomben 2200m Hcp

  84. Dadoozdart - 50kgs - 2nd 2022 LR Canberra Cup 2000m Hcp

  85. Fengarada - 50kgs - 1st 2022 BM64 Sandown 2100m Hcp

  86. Harmysian - 50kgs - 3rd 2022 Open Moonee Valley 2040m Hcp

  87. Impulsar - 50kgs - 1st 2022 BM78 Randwick 2400m Hcp

  88. Irish Flame - 50kgs - 3rd 2022 Open Moonee Valley 2040m Hcp

  89. Jekyll'n'hyde - 50kgs - 6th 2022 G2 Adelaide Cup 3200m Hcp

  90. Kalapour - 50kgs - 1st 2022 BM78 Hawkesbury 1500m Hcp

  91. Pale King - 50kgs - 3rd 2022 Bm84 Caulfield 2000m Hcp

  92. Skyphios - 50kgs - A lot* - 1st 2022 2yo Flemington 1800m Hcp

  93. Sound of Cannons - 50kgs - 1st 2022 BM70 Sandown 2400m Hcp

  94. Southern France - 50kgs - 1st 2019 G2 Zipping Classic 2400m WFA (Outside Range)

  95. Teewaters - 50kgs - 1st 2022 Open 3yo Caulfield 2400m Hcp

  96. Ting Tong - 50kgs - 6th 2022 G1 Qld Derby 2400m 3yo

  97. Waterville - 50kgs - 1st 2022 Limerick 85 rating 3300m Hcp

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