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Cup Day Preview - 01/11/22

Welcome to the Cup Day preview, the best race day on the Australian calendar in the best carnival in the world. Not from a quality perspective, but a 3200m G1 Hcp with 24 runners is beyond a fascinating event. Will be preparing for a Heavy 8. Before we preview the day (I will only write up Melbourne and just tip NSW races), we will review Saturday's racing.


Flemington Review

Perfect Thought has always looked a promising type and finally delivered on that. Not keen on Tijuana off that. Surefire looked handy there, as did Serpentine but cannot see him measuring up in the Cup. Argentia is a serious punters enemy. Triple Missile savaged the line and weight probably got the better of The Astrologist. Beau Rossa good in 4th. Sack Generation over any trip not 1000m. Zennzella received the ride of the day from JMac. After being caught 3 wide, he made his move on the back straight and hit the lead before the bend to save energy. More jockeys need to this as opposed to waiting until the sweeping bend. Poland losing hurts a lot. Thought I had it but Old Flame ran it down. The 3yo crop is nowhere near as bad as first thought. In Secret was huge there. C'Est Magique posted a career best figure here. Buenos Noches was unlucky not to finish closer. Lofty Strike seems to be in great order and will appreciate the dry a lot more. Coolangatta best of the front runners, gallant effort. Economics and Best of Bordeaux good. Jacquinot got warm too late. Manzoice came from the clouds. He hit the line fine in the Spring Champ but was not expecting this. Like how this means an Almanzor colt will likely be at stud. Sharp N Smart admirable again but think 2000m is more his go. Mr Maestro did not receive the easiest run. Berkeley Square a tad unlucky. Icebath was the horse that deserves a group 1 most (up there with Dalasan) and now finally got hers. Mirra Vision almost caused a boilover at odd. I am willing to forgive La Crique. I know what I saw in NZ and she has ability. Asfoora did very well first go at the straight. She is not Marabi but does not have to be to win the Oakleigh Plate.


Rosehill Review

The wrong girl jockey won on the Godolphin but received a great ride from King. Waterford is good but think we are approaching his level. Pale King won again this prep and Pink Ivory ran well. Another win in close. Zac Lloyd rides his first metro winner. Hezashocka was seriously unlucky here, missing a run at the start. Stockman was just here to tick the legs over. Not sure on the 3 day back up into another state. Private Eye is now a top 5 horse in the country and very well is the second best sprinter behind Nature Strip. What a huge horse. Mazu is a serious money spinner for connections now. Kementari did not receive the best ride and likely finishes second if he does not side 3 wide no cover, even if it was off-speed. Lost & Running disappointing. I would spell Eduardo and target the Galaxy. Masked Crusader appears to be done. Everyone jumped off I Wish I Win, myself included. In hindsight, we should have realised last start was a write off as he did not have a good run. Fangirl huge in second. Her and Hinged are polar opposites. She wants it dry whereas Hinged wants it wet. Gypsy Goddess awesome in 3rd and has a big future. Light Infantry no luck on the straight at all. In The Congo fine in 7th but better at lower trips. Oakfield Arrow won the midway with Zac Lloyd picking up his second on the same silks. Kah landed a winner with her final ride at Rosehill.


Betting Strategy

Flem R6: Jacquinot 0.5 units win

Flem R8: La Crique 2 units win

Flem R9: Asfoora 1 unit win

Rose R2: Va Via 1 unit win

Rose R4: Pink Ivory 0.5 units win

Rose R6: Hezashocka 0.25 units win

Rose R8: Light Infantry 1.5 units win

Disaster of a day with only Asfoora getting up. Light Infantry never saw the light of day. Jacquinot likely is a 1400m horse. La Crique too poor to explain. Va Via hopeless. Pink Ivory close, as was Hezashocka (seriously unlucky to not win). Unfortunately, this means back into the negatives but we had to run into a speedbump after the late run of form.


Weekly Outlay: $175

Weekly Return: $58

Weekly Profit/Loss: -$117


Seasonal Outlay: $1,480

Seasonal Return: $1,430.5

Seasonal Profit/Loss: $49.5

Seasonal ROI%: -3.4%


Tipping

Flemington: 2/9 (33/150)

Rosehill: 1/10 (29/117)


Flemington

Race 1 - G3 Maribyrnong Plate 1000m 2yo SW

Very tough race to assess. Zulfiqar is 1/1 but did not rate highly last start from the experts however, worked home well enough. I will be siding with Diabelli, who worked well alongside Zulfiqar and was not far off Coincide in a trial. They are the top 2. The other Godolphin slides into my top 3 here, working home behind the two Godolphins here. Little Brose in 4th here but realistically, any could surprise. Especially, the fillies here as they could have targeted the Ottawa Stakes. Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 2 - BM96 2800m Hcp

White Marlin should win. Beat Manzoice but was better off at the WFA scale but looks to be very progressive. A tad short to bet though. Caboche beat home Verimli when both chasing Port Phillip in the latest. Team Captain has been going under the radar. Do not think he wins but one for the exotics. Plus Blake Shinn on.

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Race 3 - BM90 1400m Greys Hcp

I have a top 4 here but I am not sold on the order at all. Those are Love Tap, The Cunning Fox, Kooled and Criminal Code. I like all for various reasons but I cannot settle on one (even though I technically have in the tips). Boxed tri we go.

Betting Strategy: Boxed Tri 1,3,9,10 0.25 units.


Race 4 - LR TAB Trophy 1800m 3yo SW+P

Have a top 3 here and feel I have settled on an order. Quang Tri looked good resuming last start. Query around 1800m. Dashing has been running against better horses and I think the drop back in trip helps but probably counteracted by a longer straight. Zoe's Promise keeps winning, always at decent odds. Dream Hour probably did not see the trip latest but looked handy enough winning a class 1. Weary of JMac on a Coolmore but form is disastrous.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 5 - 1000m 3yo SW+P

A tough race but I believe I have the answer. It should be one of Alpha Fight or Field of Flutes. Alpha Fight seems to like the soft ground. Field of Flutes probably went too early latest. Plenty of other threats though, such as Lascars, Crosswinds, Shalaman and Xtravagant Star. Even others.

Betting Strategy: No bet but if the day is going well, I might be on Alpha Fight or Field of Flutes myself.


Race 6 - LR Furphy Plate 1800m Hcp

Love the look of Noname Lane here. Loves the wet, good in the Toorak and somehow, only carrying 55.5kgs. The market is very keen on Dynasties and I admittedly can see why. Just Folk best horse and will want rain but a fair bit of weight. Bermadez my distant 4th, similar level to Sir Davy and Regal Lion, all of which have queries about trip or ground.

Betting Strategy: Noname Lane 0.5 units win


Race 7 - G1 Melbourne Cup 3200m Hcp

See write up.

Betting Strategy: 6,14,24 0.5 units boxed quinella.


Race 8 - BM90 1400m Hcp

The Garden and Field of Flutes form appears to be the right form around this grade and both will be my top 2 here. Very open race though. Munhamek has been running well. Nugget is a decent international but did not rate his trial on heavy.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 9 - G3 HKJC Stakes

Another open race which will make the quaddie tough. Find Roots and Literary Magnate hard to split here. Decent Raine Heresy next two. Even Promise of Success, Finepoint, She's All Class, Larkspur Run, Adele Armour and Another Award all have to be considered.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 10 - LR MSS Security Sprint

A lot of horses here that ran on the Saturday, not sure how many are going to accept though. Assuming both the Astrologist and General Beau do not. Zethus on top here. Running well but Nicolini Vito does meet him better at the weights. My clear top 2. (Astrologist would be 3rd). Chassis loves the track and her best is good enough. If it rains enough, can Shelby figure. I just hope he can find his best, what a story but it is more hope than anything. Hi Stranger could surprise at odds.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Tipping

Flemington

R1: 3 Diabelli - 1 Zulfiqar - 7 Parade Ground - 6 Little Brose R2: 7 White Marlin - 9 Caboche - 8 Verimli - 3 Team Captain

R3: 1 Love Tap - 10 The Cunning Fox - 3 Criminal Code - 9 Kooled

R4: 12 Quang Tri - 3 Dashing - 1 Zoe's Promise - 4 Dream Hour

R5: 5 Alpha Flight - 11 Field of Flutes - 16 Xtravagant Star - 1 Crosswinds

R6: 4 Noname Lane - 1 Just Folk - 15 Dynasties - 8 Bermadez

R7: 24 Realm Of Flowers - 6 Without A Fight - 14 Daqiansweet Junior - 19 Smokin Romans

R8: 2 The Garden - 19 Field of Roses - 10 Munhamek - 5 Nugget

R9: 19 Roots - 3 Literary Magnate - 5 Heresy - 10 Decent Raine R10: 11 Zethus - 10 Nicolini Vito - 13 Chassis - 8 Hi Stranger


Randwick

R1: 13 Nautical Miss - 4 Loving Cilla - 2 Onemore Sapphire - 5 Acceber

R2: 8 Salire - 9 Miss Kirribilli - 11 Oakeys Choice - 3 Mystery Lad

R3: 3 Tristate - 1 The Bopper - 9 Capital Reign - 12 Key Lago

R4: 8 Saturn Star - 2 Manderboss - 5 Deep Snow - 14 Vivid Flash

R5: 5 Hosier - 14 Casino Kid - 7 Siqaap - 2 Surf Dancer

R6: 11 Two Big Fari - 6 Phillipsburg - 1 Dr Drill - 9 Ita

R7: 10 Clemenceau - 6 Dragonstone - 7 Sky Command - 1 Malkovich

R8: 1 Far Too Easy - 9 Cavalier Charles - 2 Fender - 8 Banju

R9: 3 Zoushack - 1 Turn on the Charm - 6 Military Mission - 5 Bullfinch

R10: 2 Norwegian Bliss - 4 Munitions - 11 Bullet Rider - 7 Mach Schnell


Betting Strategy

Flem R3: Boxed Tri 1,3,9,10 0.25 units

Flem R6: Noname Lane 0.5 units win

Flem R7: Boxed Quin 6,14,24 0.5 units

Rand R7: Clemenceau 1.25 units win

2.5 units for 50 outlay.


Best of luck on this great day of racing.


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