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The 2022 Caulfield Cup Preview

Geez this is a tough rendition of the Caulfield Cup. Read this knowing I could see 10 horses winning and my opinion is worth a grain of salt but maybe I can help you out.

1 - Gold Trip

A class galloper who was 4th in the Arc. Was caught 3 wide last start but was also off speed. gets wetter ground here and can win but with 57.5kgs, giving weight to every horse, I find it hard to see happening.

2 - Duais

At her best, is good enough to win and win well. Problem is, she may not be going that well to actually figure. I find the Turnbull run hard to rate. When she won the Australia Cup, they went very quick and she powered but the crawled in the Turnbull. This is leading me to deem her as a forgive. She was lame second up and did everything right first up but I still need to see more. Very appealing at current odds though.

3 - Knights Order

Liked him a lot at 18s but has been backed in hard. Subsequently, the track is now soft and he will likely drift because of that but the horse is going very nicely with strong form. The front running style helps but wide draw could make things difficult. Incentivise did it but he is not Incentivise so will need an easier run.

4 - Montefilia

Copy and paste Duais. I just believe she is slightly less brilliant. Her best is good enough but a plan second up run is leaving me wondering.

5 - Numerian

I do not rate him. Big weight and Queensland Winter form is not holding up as well this year. Not without a place chance but like others more.

6 - Nonconformist

Going as well as last time and no Incentivise this time around. Every bit of a winning chance but wide draw like many here stinks. Surface is not of concern and can win.

7 - Vow & Declare

Is flying under the radar with three super runs this prep. I think he is a better 2400m horse than 3200 as well. Track of slight issue but he is far from inept on soft ground.

8 - No Compromise

Was a good winner in the metrop, beating horses with good form IMO. Gets in light here again and can win.

9 - Alegron

Also going very well. Think he is every bit a two miler but could win here as well. Track of no concern.

10 - Benaud

Copy and paste above. Think Nonconformist was slightly better at latest outing.

11 - Great House

Another flying under the radar. Was super first up and flew home second up off a slow tempo. Drying ground helps him out.

12 - Inspirational Girl

Not sure she is going well. Every chance latest and did not fire. Not very keen but market seems to like her far more than others I like.

14 - Sound

Could win on dry but would want better than soft 7. 2400m is pet trip and just a seasoned galloper. Not going great this prep though.

15 - Chapada

Only has won the three career starts which has shocked me. This to me seems above him and not going as well compared to this time last year.

16 - Crystal Pegasus

Qualified for this race earlier in the year but has not shown anything since. Big avoid.

17 - Smokin Romans

I did not like him for this after the Turnbull. It was a serious sit and sprint however, once barriers came out, it was hard not to like as basically every other chance has drawn wide. He goes forward, soft 7 suits and the 51.5kgs is insane. Current odds are poison but should be fav (id price him around 7). Just maps and weighs well but hard to be confident.

18 - Tralee Rose

On a Melbourne Cup preparation. To be honest, I think this is her trip, not the two mile however, first two runs have been uninspired.

19 - Durston

Was going really well in Sydney but I do not buy into the hype. Not disgraced in a metrop though and gets in light. Could win and I would not be surprised.

Likely do not figure

18th. Chapada

17th. Crystal Pegasus

16th. Inspirational Girl

15th. Sound (Would give him a chance on a good surface)

14th. Tralee Rose

13th. Numerian

Place Chances, winning hopes

12th. Gold Trip

11th. Durston

Also Winning chances, but less than above

10th. Benaud

9th. No Compromise

8th. Alegron

Good enough at their best but how are they actually going (hard to rate)

7th. Montefilia

6th. Duais

Winning Chances

5th. Vow & Declare

4th. Knights Order

3rd. Great House

2nd. No Compromise

1st. Smokin Romans

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