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The 2022 Cox Plate Preview

(Disclaimer: Did not realise that I did not publish this yesterday)

Welcome to the 2022 Cox Plate Preview which looks to be a cracking rendition of Australian WFA gallopers with an intriguing international, along with an intriguing international and some making up the numbers.

1 - Zaaki

Drawn well until the rain came but even still, would rather barrier 1 then barrier 10. Wet is not an issue for him though. Just feel however he has always had his chance in the past few runs and could not beat Anamoe. Will be in the finish though. Also, I am starting to think Zaaki may actually be a miler-1800m horse as his best distances.

2 - I'm Thunderstruck

If this was Flemington on a good track, I would have him potentially above Anamoe to take out this race. Unfortunately for I'm Thunderstruck, he has drawn wide so will likely have to settle last unless Zahra can slot him midfield. He also will only have a short straight to reel him down and while I do not think he is bad on soft, I certainly think he is better on top of the ground.

3 - Alligator Blood

Barrier draw has hurt him somewhat. Likely to hit the first bend 3 wide. Wet track does not suit. If he drew inside and was dry, I would actually think he would be a chance to win. 2000m is of no concern to me, while he may not be able to beat them over this trip, plenty cannot. Could place under the right circumstances but needs a good ride.

4 - Mr Brightside

Loves the track and loves the conditions. I do still question if he has the quality of these however, the barrier seriously hurts him as while he normally settles midfield or just off the pace, I cannot see that happening and he will be close to last. Think he can run a drum though and maybe place but lost the chance of winning once the barrier draw came out.

5 - Mo'Unga

Just not up to these. No doubt Nash will give a good steer. I am very torn on if he is a miler or not. Probably equally good at 1600-2000m but just 1-2L off them at their best here. Surface is of no issue but will probably have to settle near the rear. Going well though.

6 - Gold Trip

The best chance to knock off Anamoe. Drawn well to settle top 6 and loves it wet. Would want a faster tempo which I think we may get with Alligator Blood drawing wider. Run in the Caulfield Cup was super with weight and to me, is the best chance to beat Anamoe. Still do not think he beats him though.

7 - Laws of Indices

Super run in the Toorak Hcp but not up to these.

8 - Young Werther

Going quite well but the Turnbull is a weaker race. Not up to these.

9 - Maximal

Should be 200/1 with these track conditions. Not up to these even on a good deck.

10 - Anamoe

The clear one to beat. Barrier draw made everything easier for two reasons. 1, he himself drew perfectly to sit right behind the leader and with his jumping and ability to settle with only two natural leaders, I would say that is likely. 2, nearly all the main chances to beat him have drawn wide. Surface is no issue. Will take a very good thing to beat him.

11 - Profondo

Would want it dry to be any chance. On wet, not up to them.

12 - El Bodegon

Brings some intrigue into this race. Likes it wet and I think some of his flops in Europe were due to him not seeing out 2400m. Is 5L off Vadeni good enough to beat Anamoe though? I hope not for the sake of our racing, regardless of how good Vadeni is. This will also prove to be a guide for Deauville Legend in the Melbourne Cup.


Will not figure 12th. Maximal

11th. Young Werther

10th. Laws of Indices

9th. Profondo

Outside Place Chances

8th. Mo'Unga

7th. Alligator Blood

Barrier did not suit what otherwise could've had them higher

6th. I'm Thunderstruck

5th. Mr Brightside

The International

4th. El Bodegon

Best upset chances

3rd. Zaaki

2nd. Gold Trip

The best middle distance horse in Australia

1st. Anamoe

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