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The Cox Plate Power Rankings 2022 Edition 4 - Post Might & Power Stakes

Welcome to the final power rankings for the 2022 Cox Plate. The Might & Power Stakes certainly cleared up the picture for me at least, The top 3 are still the clear top 3 in my eyes and are easily the top 3 chances in this race. Gold Trip drops out due to both a poor run in the Turnbull (excuses) and them deciding to go the Caulfield Cup which could very well be the smart as it seems as if there will be a lot of rain which suits him. My Oberon is also now listed as doubtful for this race.

10 - Eliptical ($34 on Sportsbet)[Shortened]

Previous Ranking: Unranked

The only reason he makes this list as I believe this race may be a 10 horse field and I am not confident in any horses I have left out actually running. It seems as if they will pay up and they like including a 2yo. Cannot compete though.

Last Start: 2nd in the G1 Caulfield Guineas

9 - Mo'Unga ($26)[Drifted]

Previous Ranking: 9th (+0)

Mo'Unga held his ranking. What I do find intriguing is no one is questioning if he can get the trip, yet Alligator Blood has every query. To me, they are one of the same, better at 1600m but I think Alligator Blood is better or so by 0.5-1L in general plus has a more favourable running style. His best runs all come off a slow tempo and I know he is a G1 winner at the 2000m but in 3yo group 1 races, the talent is less and class can go a long way. Where he was pushed by poor horses outside of Montefilia who was still developing and worked home well. They did run a decent time for a soft 7 though.

Last Start: 8th in the G1 Might & Power Stakes

8 - El Bodegon ($13)[Drifted]

Previous Ranking: 5th (-3)

Why the drop? I was praising the form overseas and I drop him three? It is very simple. Bowman rode him in trackwork and picked Top Ranked. He clearly did not like what he felt underneath him. He becomes a bigger chance on the wet though and I very well could be overreacting but I do believe jockey choices are telling, even if they do not often get it right.

Last Start: 3rd in the G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes

7 - Cascadian ($51)[Unsure]

Previous Ranking: Unranked

Stable appear to want to target this race as opposed to Sydney and I do not blame them. He looked mightily impressive defeating Numerian who ran to his peak and Montefilia who likely was not. However, I believe he is 1-2L below the best here and with how he normally settles, he likely gets back on a track it is hard to swoop on.

Last Start: 1st in the G2 Hill Stakes

6 - Top Ranked ($13)[Shortened]

Previous Ranking: Unranked

At 6 we have Top Ranked. I am not sure why I did not have him in the previous rankings. He was a better chance than I Wish I Win at latest rankings. His Epsom win was very impressive I though, drawing equal with a high quality wet tracker. He is probably a standard below this and his get back style may not help but if a few perform below their best, he is a chance.

Last Start: 1st in the G1 Epsom Hcp

5 - Mr Brightside ($15)[Held]

Previous Ranking: 8th (+3)

He is another that can also win given the right circumstance. He has shown 2000m is an appropriate trip even if he is more effective at the mile. His best chance of winning comes if there is rain and if he can settle closer as I still believe he is better on the wet, although, proved to me he can compete at WFA level on the dry.

Last Start: 4th in the G1 Might & Power Stakes

4 - Alligator Blood ($18)[Drifted]

Previous Ranking: 7th (+3)

An interesting horse. Everyone is writing him off at the trip which is another thing I find hilarious. Leaders always have this query on them but they always do it tougher. I do believe over 2000m, he will need a lot to go right to beat the above three but in saying that, the Valley is the best track in Victoria for his running style. I agree he is better at the mile but he could honestly win this race if he gets the following two things. An inside draw and inside of Zaaki and either a slower tempo or a leader biased track. A good deck is also helpful. Outside of that, if they go too fast, he likely cannot compete. He also lost his off fore plate. At this price, I kind of want some and hope it is leaderish.

Last Start: 5th in the G1 Might & Power Stakes

3 - I'm Thunderstruck ($7)[Shortened]

Previous Ranking: 2nd (-1)

Over 2000m, I find it hard to see how I'm Thunderstruck can turn the tables on Anamoe, especially at Moonee Valley as he typically does not settle handy. He will need to be right off the speed to win this but he definitely can win if things go right which would be settling handy off a moderate to fast tempo.

Last Start: 2nd in the G1 Might & Power Stakes

2 - Zaaki ($5)[Shortened]

Previous Ranking: 3rd (+1)

While I'm Thunderstruck and Anamoe, both ran past him, how does Zaaki jump up a spot you may ask? Well for one, he has drawn outside Alligator Blood both runs so he has had to cover more ground both times but also do it tough on the speed. I could be wrong but I believe they are not trying to push harder for the lead and try run the others into the ground as he is yet to race in his grand final. If he draws inside Alligator Blood, I believe he should be the favourite if Anamoe draws wider.

Last Start: 3rd in the G1 Might & Power Stakes

1 - Anamoe ($2.10)[Shortened]

Previous Ranking: 1st (+0)

A deserving favourite beating a very high quality Might & Power field. He is the best horse in this race but he is way too short. He drew perfectly here to sit right off the pace and still needed every bit of that straight to win. Yes, he went a little wider than necessary but, what if he draws wide and has to go back in at the Valley. The Valley has a shorter home straight and a more devastating bend to sit wide on which can really shoot wide at the turn. However, he is class and jumps and settles incredibly well for a stallion. I personally, will not be taking anything at that price.

Last Start: 1st in the G1 Might & Power Stakes

As for the remaining horses, it does not appear it will be a field of 14 which I personally do not like as if 14 horses accept, all 14 should run. The only other horses I could see contesting this are Young Werther but is also more likely to contest the Caulfield Cup (I do think he is a better 2000m horse). Profondo may as well but was poor last start and I would consider other options like the Craven Plate as I do not believe he is up to this but the Valley could suit him more if he draws closer to the speed. Eliptical is probably the token 3yo but I feel Bank Maur is a better horse and should be considered. If both want to run, put both in. Gold Trip and Duais likely do not back up and progress to the Melbourne Cup instead.

I do not mean to rag on this race as it actually has depth unlike last year and appears to be a better field. I do however feel disappointed that this field could have been a lot better. Incentivise beat Nonconformist in the Caulfield Cup by 4L sitting wide and eased down in what could have been 5. The Hitotsu form has proved to be very strong with Benaud and Alegron performing strongly this spring. Think It Over is class and would have made this an even better field as well but all three are not here. It is still a quality field though but it could have been a great field.

My tiers of chances for the race

Cannot compete (10)

- Eliptical

May challenge the placings but queries (8-9)

- Mo'Unga

- El Bodegon

Probably just a standard below (6-7)

- Cascadian

- Top Ranked

Can win if conditions suit (4-5)

- Mr Brightside

- Alligator Blood

Most likely winning chances (1-3)

- I'm Thunderstruck

- Zaaki

- Anamoe

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