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The Everest 2022 Preview

Welcome to the 2022 Everest Preview. After 4 sets of power rankings, barrier draws and final fields, I present my preview. I will only do write-ups for select big races, such as The Everest, Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, Melbourne Cup, All-Star Mile and Golden Slippers (and maybe some races in the NSW Championships). I will be going through each runner as to why they can or cannot win as well as a where horses may settle and who I believe has drawn well.


1 - Nature Strip

The horse they all have to beat. The best horse in Australia, the best sprinter in the world and arguably the best horse in the world. Surface is perfect for him. At his best, he will not lose this however, barrier 12 is of concern and I do not care what anyone says. The rail was out last week and that ground has been saved so I doubt you would want to be four lanes wide on the straight but it likely will not matter. The best chance of beating him was scratched and 1.60 is a fair price. People look to his 2/9 record second up but I believe that is just his 2 week break record, only better. He gets 4 weeks off here which is what he likes and is in prime condition to become Australia's highest ever earner.


2 - Eduardo

Has a 4/11 record against Nature Strip which is definitely the best of any horse ever however, he has failed at every grand final opportunity. He would have wanted it heavy to have the best chance of beating him and to be honest, I cannot see how he turns the tables. He does not seem to be the same horse as he was in 2021 but he may ruin Nature Strips race for another horse to benefit.


4 - Masked Crusader

Has been progressing nicely here. Showed clear improvement first to second up and looks ready to peak here. Seems to be very similar to last year where he was moderate in the shorts, improved in the premier and almost stole the race. Soft 7 is fine but the drier, the better. Will need a hot speed but in my opinion, is the best chance to beat the worlds best sprinter.


5 - Mazu

A very consistent type who may produce a 5th here, a position he is quite fond of and is his number. Drawn out with the speed so does he follow them or take a sit. I would go the latter. Would want it wetter to be a winning chance I think but is a place chance.


6 - Private Eye

Reminds me a bit of Haut Brion Her. Likely better slightly further but if they go hard, can absorb a hot tempo and run a drum. First up win was a career best performance for mine, equal with his Stradbroke run. If it is a sit and sprint though, he finishes closer to last. Actually has drawn well to make others lives difficult.


7 - Overpass

Bit suprised at the 61/1 on offer, considering Giga Kick is 18s and Shades of Rose is 34s. His first up run was excellent but how will a gut buster of a 1200m go, I do not know. Should be shorter but probably top 6 at best here, maybe top 4 but quite unlikely I would have thought.


8 - Ingratiating

Godolphins 3rd best sprinter gets their number 1 slot. Will go back and run home well but cannot see any scenario he wins. Might run top 4 if the tempo is really hot but in my opinion, he is clearly the worst of all the backmarkers. Might also prefer it shorter.


9 - Joyful Fortune

I do not mind this as a selection but soft 7 is the driest you would want it. Provides X-Factor but happy to miss. Last trial was only moderate.


10 - Shades Of Rose

Same as above. Looked good at lower grades but does not look up to these. Does like it wet.


11 - Jacquinot

Okay, here is the other intriguing runner. Stormed home in the Golden Rose and is easily the best credentialled 3yo beating home Fireburn and In Secret which ties into Zougotcha and beat Aft Cabin. Will drop back but will provide a savage finishing burst. One of the best to beat Nature Strip as he brings a different form line. Or, he runs 8th.


12 - Giga Kick

In my opinion should be 100/1. Alpha One form looks worse now and should be winning by more to measure up. My 12th chance, same as his number.


13 - Kementari

Justice. Should have received the Everest spot as Paulele is G1 hunting and was not far off some ones closer in the market. Likes the wet, will settle in a great spot and very well may run top 4.


Tiers

Top 6 chances

12th. Giga Kick

11th. Joyful Fortune

10th. Shades of Rose

9th Ingratiating

8th. Overpass



Outside Place Chances

7th. Private Eye

6th. Kementari

5th. Mazu



Decent Place Chance, outside winning shot

4th. Eduardo


The best chances to knock off WBS

3rd. Jacquinot

2nd. Masked Crusader


Worlds Best Sprinter

1st. Nature Strip

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