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The Everest Power Rankings 2022 Edition 3 - Post the Shorts.

Welcome to the third instalment of the power rankings for the 2022 Everest. The picture has become far clearer but not solved after the conclusion of the Shorts. By the next one, the Premiere and Moir should help further. I use TAB for all futures markets but when doing your punting, look around for the best price. Sportsbet are doing if your horse does not run, money back.

10. Best of Bordeaux ($34){Shortened}

Previous Ranking: Unranked

Only gets in due to having a likely shot at a Coolmore slot. His start in the Heritage will be very telling and you'd have to imagine he wins to be any shot at running a decent race here. Not as talented as Home Affairs either.

Previous Start: 2nd in the G2 Run to the Rose

9. In The Congo ($34){Drifted}

Previous Ranking: 10th (+1)

Gains a spot due to Classique Legend slipping out. Nothing happened since. One of the best options of horses that are yet to receive a slot but probably will not do much better than 6th. Just a money back for their slot kind of thing.

Previous Start: 6th in the G2 McEwen Stakes

8. Paulele ($15){Held}

Previous Ranking: 8th (+0)

Nothing happened since but resumes in the Moir Stakes tonight (where by the time this is published, he may have already ran. Trialling only moderately, Mazu going moderate does not help him but 8th is more than fair. Feel he is above whatever is below but below whatever is above. Godolphin's likely slot holder.

Previous Start: 2nd in the G1 Kingsford Smith Cup

7. Snapdancer [Slot]($15){Held}

Previous Ranking: 6th (-1)

No fault of her own for the drop, just two horses below where 1 of which I did not rate correctly (Lost & Running) and the other showing serious improvement (Overpass). Nothing since last ranking and looks as if she will go into the Everest without another run. Said previously she reminds me of Haut Brion Her and I would say this Everest is weaker.

Previous Start: 1st in the G1 Memsie Stakes

6. Mazu [Slot]($13){Drifted}

Previous Ranking: 5th (-1)

Really tossed up between the order for 6th and 7th and elected to go with Mazu at 6th. Was 5th the whole way in the Shorts and did not have the easiest run (but also not the hardest). Seems to be a very consistent galloper but I suspect his level is below the top liners. Maybe I am wrong but I do not believe he is that good and his G1 Doomben 10,000 margin would suggest that. Can still figure in the top 4 though.

Previous Start: 5th in the G2 Shorts

5. Eduardo [Slot]($13)[Drifted]

Previous Ranking: 2nd (-3)

While I still believe he is the second best sprinter in the world, I cannot for the life of me see how he can beat Nature Strip over 1200m. I can below but not at. He had the lead but did draw wide and had to work hard for it so I do expect he will bounce back after four weeks off but again, he just cannot beat him at the trip so how can he win the race?

Last Start: 4th in the G2 Shorts

4. Overpass ($13)[Shortened]

Previous Ranking: 9th (+5) Was trialling incredibly well and translated to race day with a second behind Nature Strip. He has scope to improve as well due to being a 4yo but I would say he is also better at 1100m as opposed to 1200m. I am glad I got some at 51/1 I must say even though I would be shocked if he wins. The hottest horse to not have a slot.

Last Start: 2nd in the G2 Shorts

3. Masked Crusader [Slot]($15)[Held]

Previous Ranking: 3rd (+1)

This horse is flying under the radar and can genuinely win the Everest. After all, he was unlucky to not have won last year. His run here was superior to his run last year and he was first up here storming home from 9th at the 400 up the rail. The extra 100m helps as well. Had an underrated Newmarket Run on the bad side with a big weight. Just seems to seriously be going under the radar.

Last Start: 6th in the G2 Shorts

2. Lost & Running [Slot]($6)[Shortened]

Previous Ranking: 7th (+5)

Was huge in his latest run where he closed quite well and

Last Start: 3rd in the G2 Shorts

1. Nature Strip [Slot]($2.10)[Shortened]

Previous Ranking: 1st (+0)

He looks close to unbeatable here and it is easy to see why. He settled in a spot he has not had to do in some time after a poor jump and managed to win. He gets 4 weeks into the Everest now which is what he likes and looks to be in as good of an order heading into this race. I do believe he is beatable as he is more effective over 1000-1100m and if the speed is quick and he draws wide, he will have to work hard but he does settle better nowadays.

Last Start: 1st in the G2 Shorts

Classique Legend is out due to pulling up 3/5ths lame. A shame what has happened to that horse. I would not pull the pin on his prep though. I would run him in 4 weeks in the weaker Sydney Stakes if the injury is not prep ending as the horse may just need some fitness or work him hard at the trials because the horse very well may be pulling up with issues due to contesting too hot of races first up the past two goes.

Shades of Rose ($34) is a close 11th due to not having as clean view at a slot as Best of Bordeaux has. Won last start but only just got over them at mares G3 level suggesting she needs to improve further and how much more can she improve realistically? I would chance he with a slot though. Athelric ($51) is the 12th horse I believe should get a slot. Already been running in Sydney and has been strong behind both Eduardo and Nature Strip. Might not win but is improving and could run 6th maybe. The Moir Stakes might not actually have a stack of relevance for this as the horses from it are likely to stay in Melbourne.

The way I see these rankings is Nature Strip on top. Masked Crusader and Lost & Running are the next best chances and the only horses I believe that can beat him. Eduardo and Overpass are strong place chances but unlikely they win. Snapdancer and Mazu a similar level for 6th and 7th and can run top 4 on the day. Paulele is a clear 8th and might run top 4 but unlikely. In The Congo, Best of Bordeaux and whoever remains (unless a horse that I did not think would contest this race come in at the bottom tier and maybe could run top 6 but unlikely.

I have again avoided horses such as Coolangatta ($51), In Secret ($15)[the most likely of these], Rothfire ($26) and The Inferno ($101) who I believe are all slot holder worthy but are all unlikely to contest this race. Rothfire especially would be in this.

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