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The Melbourne Cup 2022 Power Rankings Edition 3 - Start of October

Welcome to the Melbourne Cup Power Rankings Edition 3, the start of October or more precisely, post 01/10/2022 with key races such as The Metropolitan, Bart Cummings Hcp and Turnbull Stakes going down. Since the last ranking, we have had other races such as the Naturalism & JRA Cup occur and the picture has became no clearer but still plenty to talk about. Spanish Mission has dropped out as well as a few of the internationals.

10. Knights Order ($26)[Held]

Previous Ranking: Unranked

Knights Order comes into the top 10 after quashing my concerns about running anti-clockwise and some very consistent runs this prep. So far, his prep reads 1st in a G2 1600m WFA race, 3rd in a G2 2000m SW+P race and now 4th in a G1 2000m SW+P race. He is very consistent and if he can get an uncontested lead in a Melbourne Cup, a top 4 finish is far from out of the question. Just depends how much speed is in the race. Another genuine 2 miler.

Last Start: 4th in the G1 Turnbull Stakes

9: Montefilia ($21)[Shortened]

Previous Ranking: 4th (-5)

Montefilia drops a few as well. She was awesome 1st up behind Anamoe but was very average behind Cascadian 2nd up. That can sometimes happen though if a horse puts up a tough first up run, often they need an extra week. She seems to very much enjoy the 2400m, especially if the ground is rain affected but queries around 3200m. The similarities between her and Duais are uncanny and are very interchangeable here.

Last Start: 3rd in the G2 Hill Stakes

8: Duais ($15)[Drifted]

Previous Ranking: 2nd (-6)

Duais drops down due to producing another plain run. Yes, she is probably better over 2400m. Yes, she carried weight compared to rivals at WFA and normalised for weights, probably was the best performing horse in that field and yes, it was a slow tempo when she seems to produce her best off a fast tempo but, she had a gun run in transit and was third up but did not work home as well as others. I can definitely see improvement but a lot of the horses she faced in that run, she will meet worse off at the weights come the Melbourne Cup. Still in my top 4 for the Caulfield Cup however.

Last Start: 8th in the G1 Turnbull Stakes

7: Alegron ($15)[Shortened]

Previous Ranking: Unranked

Alegron jumps into this list due to his sensational performance in the Kingston Town. That was a strong form race having Benaud who was running very well at WFA against good horses the prior two starts (Hitotsu form is good form) and previous Sydney Cup winner Knights Order in third. He seems to get better over the 2400m and while he is untested over further, he seems to me to be a horse that really will enjoy the two miles. Godolphin have a good one.

Last Start: 1st in the G2 Kingston Town Stakes

6: Deauville Legend ($8)[Held]

Previous Ranking: 10th (+4)

Deauville Legend jumps for two reasons, the first being other horses originally above him lowering my opinion of them. The second was due to the form around him continuing to stack up as it seems to get better and better. The weight is still a major concern though, as is the trip somewhat if the tempo is fast.

Last Start: 1st in the G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes

5: Sheraz ($34)[Shortened]

Previous Ranking: 1st (-4)

Sheraz drops slightly due to producing only a moderate run second up and the three others slightly elevating my opinions of them. He has no incentive to win but I would have still liked him to have shown some more dash like he did first up. I have noticed however stayers can be prone to that though. Once again, a proven two miler and a faster than average tempo in the race would suit. Wet track no concern.

Last Start: 9th in the G3 Naturalism Stakes

4. Daqiansweet Junior ($26)[Shortened]

Previous Ranking: 9th (+5)

Daqiansweet Junior jumps 5 spots. His naturalism run was the run of the race for mine from a going forward perspective and build very nicely on his first up run. His Bart Cummings run was disappointing at face value however, he sat 3 wide no cover on speed which is something he normally does not do so a complete forgive. He also still was under 3L off them plus he had 0 incentive to actually win the race. A proven two miler again but is typically a get back and run on type so hopefully, he draws a gate like 8 and can settle inside the first half of the field.

Last Start: 9th in the G3 Bart Cummings Hcp

3: Loft ($8)[Shortened]

Previous Ranking: 8th (+5)

Loft rises here due to most of the Aussies that were above him not performing to the expectations I had for them. Nothing has happened since we last checked in but he is a proven two miler and a serious chance in this race.

Last Start: 2nd in the LR Chester Stakes

2: Realm of Flowers ($34)[Shortened]

Previous Ranking: 5th (+3)

A huge Metrop run rewarding my faith in her. Sat 3 wide no cover albeit off speed, covered the most ground and did not have the most luck at the top of the straight and could consider herself hard done by in that race (albeit No Compromise did not have it super easy either). She kept going though and that last 200m suggests she is a true stayer which was already known if you look at the best two runs in her career. She peaks typically 4th up and later which is what she will be heading into this race. The only reason I do not have her number one is because she theoretically may not make the field. As it stands, she is 31st in the order of entry and with races like the Geelong Cup, Moonee Valley Gold Cup & Hotham Hcp along for horses to either boost their rating or if a horse is outside the ballot, to run top 3 in, she might need 10 or more horses above her to drop out. There is a world I could see this happening with horses like Gold Trip, Young Werther, Stockman, Le Don De Vie, Great House, Grand Promenade, Tralee Rose, Arapaho, Mankayan, Crystal Pegasus & Milford all having queries in my eyes but she will need a lot to go right between now and then to go straight into the cup. Otherwise, she will need to win a Geelong Cup or something.

Last Start: 3rd in the G1 Metropolitan

1: Without A Fight ($15)[Shortened]

Previous Ranking: 3rd (+2)

Now, I know he did not go overly well at his latest losing to Siskany but he did carry over 2kgs more. What I really like about him is that he is the only international horse this year without an Australian connection (as of my understanding). Loft was purchased by Kheir I believe, Hoo Ya Mal trained by Waterhouse, Deauville Legend owned by Bon Ho, Rodrigo Diaz Aus Bloodstock, Camorra trained by the Hayes boys but what I love is that he is not. This means they must have serious faith in his ability although, I think you need to be beating Siskany to pose a threat. This was 2400m though and he is normally better over further with his best runs coming over 2800m.

Last Start: 2nd in the LR Godolphin Stakes

I want to give my thoughts on how I currently see it. Feel I am currently happy enough with my orders for the race, especially the top 2 and to a lesser extent, the top 3. 4 & 5 are the same level with 6 behind them. 7 just ahead of 8 & 9 who are the same level and 10 just gets in over some of the rest. The great race is not so great this year though and to be honest, a horse that is not G1 quality could very well take it out.

Grand Promenade ($51) showed very little first up and was close to putrid. My fears were correct that he simply is not ready but the Valley was playing poorly that night. I do not know where he goes to second up but I suspect the pin may be pulled on the campaign as there is not a lot of time to get him fit. This is one team though that does know best. If he replicates the form he has last year, he is good enough for the top 5, maybe even better but felt I have seen enough to assume otherwise. Spanish Mission drops out due to obvious reasons.

Lets discuss some honourable mentions. Lunar Flare ($26) looked good in her latest and while I do not think this Bart Cummings was strong at all, the race typically has reasonable form in the race and I like the way she hits the line and was only penalised 0.5kgs. Young Werther ($18) went very well in the Turnbull but I am convinced he is more of a 2000-2400m horse and 3200m will be a bridge too far. Camorra ($15) is a proven stayer which I like but last run left a bad taste in my mouth. Smokin Romans ($18) can also consider himself hard done by but I am not sure he is a 3200m horse and I want a proven two miler as I assume this race will have its fair share that roll forward. A great chance in the Caulfield Cup though. Hoo Ya Mal ($18) still hangs around the mark but nothing more to comment on this time around. Vow & Declare did not run overly well in the Bart Cummings and is still yet to pass the ballot clause but his run 2nd up was intriguing and was not too far away today. Needs to place in a Geelong Cup though (the race I see as the best chance for him to succeed). Rodrigo Diaz ($51) may surprise, presents a bit of value but unlikely.

I want to discuss some others that are not going well but could still figure. May regret this by edition 4 which will be posted after the Caulfield Cup. Persan ($34) was improved 3rd up but again, not great, need to see more in what might be either a Herbert Power or Caulfield Cup. Point Nepean ($26) at the time seemed like a suspect winner of the Andrew Ramsden and will need to show me something more. I thought Serpentine ($51) was improved in the Bart Cummings but will need to take further improvements to be properly considered. Will need to head to the Geelong Cup. Gold Trip ($15) is carrying serious weight and cannot be considered in this (if he runs) unless it is a slop. I do not rate No Compromise highly but is now a G1 winner. Will likely get 1-2kgs for his win in the Metrop, albeit it was miniscule margin which does not benefit him. Le Don De Vie ($34) was also good today but I am not sure 3200m is his go but a 2400m Caulfield Cup (if it is wet) might be. Durston ($34) probably better on top of the ground which he should get in the Cup but queries around 3200m. Interpretation ($18) was excellent in the Bart Cummings but needs to find a win to make the ballot. Regal Lion ($51) looked good resuming but surprised no penalty. Numerian ($51) may have passed the first ballot clause I believe but I doubt they head this way.

A theoretical 11-20

20. Young Werther ($18)

19. Nerve Not Verve ($101)

18. Rodrigo Diaz ($51)

17. Persan ($34)

16. Point Nepean ($26)

15. Hoo Ya Mal ($18)

14. Lunar Flare ($26)

13. Vow & Declare ($26)

12. Smokin Romans ($18)

11. Camorra ($15)

The next power rankings will not arrive until after the Cox Plate, so after key races such as the Herbert Power, Caulfield Cup, Geelong Cup, Moonee Valley Gold Cup and of course the Cox Plate have occurred. A the picture should be far clearer by then.

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