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The Racing Rundown - 01/10/2022

Welcome to the Racing Rundown for the biggest day of the season so far with 4 group 1s occurring. Spring was certainly in the air with no footy, good racing and plenty to talk about so without further adieu, lets jump right into it.

G1 Turnbull Stakes

Wowza that was a weird race. Knights Order led from the front and geez they went slow (for a good 3 group 1). No one pressured him and it became a sit and sprint with Smokin Romans of all horses taking it out. It is not like it was a Metrop, he now joins a recent honour role of horses of Incentivise, Verry Elleegant, Winx x2 and Hartnell. Some absolutely class gallopers. He won convincingly as well and will get even better weights for the Caulfield Cup. He should be favourite which is crazy to say but I will look elsewhere. Maximal was good in second, as was Young Werther in 3rd. Knights Order is on track for the cup. Gold Trip was wide but a little plain. LUncies put in a sneaky good run. Inspirational Girl only fair. Duais was disappointing but was giving rivals weight at WFA ranging from 2-5kgs. She needs a fast tempo over 2000m so I have not given up on her yet but this prep has looked seriously plain. Maybe she is an autumn horse. Profondo probably is not good enough. The rest were eh.

G1 Epsom Hcp

A once great race with a disappointing field but a strong top end and a finish to be remembered. Ellsberg ducked to the inside and managed to dead heat Top Ranked. Top Ranked continues to impress and they should consider the Cox Plate. As for Ellsberg, they may press onto the Craven and Five Diamonds. Hinged was more than solid in third and is starting to become a noted wet tracker. Icebath is an enigma, running well when no one thinks she will but never doing well when expected to do so. Still came 4th though. Fangirl should avoid the wet at all costs by this point. Nimalee game enough in 5th. Nothing much to discuss with the rest.

G1 The Metropolitan

Gee this was a tight finish. No Compromise was unlucky in the run and still managed to get them on the line. Could have won by a little more. Le Don De Vie was a very good run in second and seems to enjoy the 2400m on the heavy. Realm of Flowers was huge in 3rd and the one I want to follow from this run. She kept powering on even after covering the most ground in the race. She seems to peak late into her prep and I see her as a genuine Melbourne Cup chance as she screams genuine two miler. Stockman the best horse in the race and wins at WFA but this was a Hcp. Sacramento with a far improved run for 5th. Durston maybe a touch down but still beat all the others he beat last start. Think we were getting carried away with Wyong Gold Cup form. Carif stuck on gamely and is a 3200m horse. Araphao, Hameron, Grove Ferry and Mankayan disappointing. What has happened to Kukeracha as well?

G1 Flight Stakes

I was well wrong here. Was very much in the Fireburn camp but she was awfully plain there. She got further back than her rivals did in the run but did not show the finishing burst she did last week. Jockey felt action was off but stewards found nothing. Maybe she just does not quite see out the mile and peaks at 1400m. Maybe it was the back up but hindsight is a wonderful thing. Zougotcha continues to impress me winning 3 of the 4 3yo Fillies features in Sydney. The girls this year definitely seem stronger than the boys. She's Extreme looked good in second and she ran very well at the mile again. North Star Lass is another class galloper who ran well for 3rd. Wolverine was slightly disappointing.

G2 Hill Stakes

Cascadian proved me wrong, seeing out the 2000m in the heavy. (seemed more like soft to me on the day personally). He is a class galloper who I continuously underrate. Likely to do what Think It Over did last year and at least in the Craven Plate, what can beat him? Numerian ran to his best in second. Montefilia very disappointing but maybe the 2 week back up after her first up run did not have her in the best order. Should have won though based on previous form but looked plain. Not much to talk about with the others.

G2 Premiere Stakes

Can any horse realistically challenge the Strip? Thought Lost & Running and Masked Crusader were good there but both probably fill the placings only. Mazu not up to them. Do Godolphin select Kementari or Paulele. Personally, soft 5 or worse, I am going Kementari and keeping Paulele in the Manikato. Overpass marginally disappointing but sometimes happens off a huge first up run. Apache Chase was good in 5th. Think it is fair to say Shelby Sixtysix should have ended his last prep after pulling up lame in the TJ. Spell him and give him some time off.

G3 Bart Cummings Hcp

The only other race besides the group 1 I wanted to analyse at Flemington was this one. Usually, this race proves to be a great indicator for the Melbourne Cup with the winner running well but I cannot help but feel this year is different. Yes, the Cup is weaker this year but I did not see a stack to be excited about with a super bunched finish. Grand Promenade looked better winning this last year. Lunar Flare did carry weight compared to rivals though and has been progressing nicely. She also has form around Floating Artist, last years fourth placed horse so I see her as an outside the box top 4 chance. Francesco Guardi was huge almost falling over and running on strongly. He will need to win a race to qualify for the cup, whether it be a Geelong Cup, Moonee Valley Gold Cup or a Hotham Hcp. Interpretation probably lost that race on the back of Midnight Blue crossing him. Midnight Blue had all chances but could only manage a 4th. Looked a likely winner at the 300m. Vow and Declare was huge in 5th, powering through with weight and lacking room but is still yet to pass the first ballot clause. Seems interesting they are now heading to the Caulfield Cup although, that race does seem weak. High Emocean only fair in 6th. The brothers ran 7-9 and personally, thought this was Serpentine's best showing on Australian soil but he still has a ways to go if he is to ever reach his best again. Daqainsweet Junior was a little plain but did not receive a great ride, forgive. Stuck on gamely sitting 3-4 wide on speed the run for a horse that normally goes back. San Huberto also wide. Fr

Rest of Flemington

Not sure anything of note ran in that 2yo race. Visinari was not a pretty watch but got the job done. She's Licketysplit received a far better ride from Lane this time around and got the chocolates. Shame Typhoon Titmus could not have won for Ariane Titmus who was there on raceday. Exceldia looked good winning that and Argentia got warm too late. Giga Kick just edged out Buenos Noches. Not sure if this is the best form for the Coolmore. The Gilgai was more interesting. Surely Private Eye is offered an Everest Slot from James Harron off of that. I was wrong in my assessment that he was a 1400-1600m horse, he might be more of a 1200-1400m horse (yes I know about his Epsom win). Roch n Horse was game again in second, as was Baller in 3rd. The Astrologist good in 4th and Zoutori improved in 5th.Swats That a bit more plain in 6th. Sirius Suspect is not up to this level. Athleric disappointing after showing so much promise.

Rest of Randwick

Empire Of Japan looked very good winning that race. Hard to get excited about early 2yo form but he looked good winning that. They were very similar to the fillies up to the 600m but he worked home around a length quicker. He looked to do it easy though. Platinum Jubilee also looked quite handy there and Perfect Proposal was far from disgraced. Hosier is a terrific miler, carrying weight over rivals and putting them away. Group class wins are far from out of the question but first stop is winning the Big Dance. Not sure if that was the race that Lloyd thought he would win on the first Tuesday of November with this horse but here we are. Williamsburg loves the slop and won that race very well. Worked home nicely to the eye but think this was a weak field. A Spring Champion is not out of the question, particularly if wet. Remarque is now starting to look like a good horse since his gelding operation. Group winner in waiting. Bacchanalia was good in second. Zoushack is one who has now run two sneaky good races since his return from injury.

Around the grounds

I will just focus on one worldwide issue. Verry Elleegant was unplaced in her 3rd French run. Yes, the race was not run to suit where the went at a slow tempo and she got stuck behind failing horses but she did not finish that well. She has not had a race run to suit this prep and I am sure if she got one (quick tempo where she settles midfeld), she can show us what she was capable of in Australia (Melbourne Cup, Caulfield Cup, Tancred Stakes etc) but it shows the standard gap of our 1600m+ racing compared with Europes where here, she could get an unfavourable race and still win a G1 only having to beat a Star of The Seas, She's Ideel or an Angel of Truth whereas to demonstrate her ability over there and win a G1, she needs a lot to go right.

Betting Strategy

Flem R2: Visinari 2.5 Units Win (1st)[$77.5 Return]

Flem R3: She's Licketysplit 1.5 Units Win (1st)[$96 return]

Rand R2: Perfect Proposal 1.5 Units Win (2nd)

Rand R3: Hosier 1 Unit Win (1st)[$100 return]

Rand R4: Montefilia 2.5 Units Win (3rd)

Rand R6: Fireburn 2 Units Win (4th)

Rand R9: Realm Of Flowers 0.25 Units Win, 0.75 Units Place (3rd)[$90 Return]

12 units outlayed. $20 units would be $240 outlaid. Was confident this would be a good week and my confidence was correct. Hopefully we get back into the positives sooner rather than later.

Weekly Outlay: $240

Weekly Return: $363.5

Weekly Profit/Loss: +$123.5

Seasonal Outlay: $1,060

Seasonal Return: $1,005.50

Seasonal Profit/Loss: -$54.5

Seasonal ROI%: -5.1%

Tipping Results:

Flemington: 3/9 (21/97)

Randwick: 4/10 (19/90)

I must say since I started, I made the right decision to drop the states I focus less on.

Lessons From The Meet

- Bigger stakes on horses you are confident in.

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