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The Racing Rundown - 06/08/2022

Updated: Aug 27, 2022

Welcome to the weekend in review where we will be reviewing the weekends racing with a write up on select race, capturing the highs and the lows, and how we went with our betting strategy/tipping. We will also be creating the Couch Critics Blackbook and a never again list.


Flemington:

Race 1 - Winner: Berkeley Square

Berkeley Square proved me wrong and established himself as a 3yo who will be competitive in group races in the spring with a 1.85L win over his rivals. After jumping much better than his previous start, he never looked like losing. Time will tell if he can be competitive in a Caulfield Guineas but he did himself little wrong there. Blakmax, did not fire a shot and was comprehensively beaten.


Race 3 - Winner: Veranskova

Veranskova could be a group class mare in the making with a dominant 2.25L win in the waiting. It was only a Benchmark 70 but the way she won was seriously impressive. The two horses with strong country form came in at second and third respectively. Few others such as Lord Paramount, Grand Pope and Big Apple were all disappointing.


Race 5 - Winner: Sirius Suspect

Sirius Suspect continued to show how much he loves the Flemington straight, with a 1L victory in the G3 Aurie's Star Hcp and was given a peach by Ethan Brown. Stageman provided a strong second place run, running on well and showcasing that Graceful Girl may be G1 competitive in weaker G1s on the eastern seaboard. Shooting For Gold measured up well and King of SParta was slightly disappointing. Romancer ran a strong race.


Race 7 - Winner: Horrifying

Horrifying won again and did not get the sluggish tempo like last race. I feel this might be his level though as he will now find it a bit harder moving up in weight but his racing pattern lends to him doing well. Through Irish Eyes has now placed in his past six and unfortunately, I have backed him in five of those. Nothing else was really notable but Teewaters was disappointing.


Race 9 - Winner: Chain Of Lightning

Chain Of Lightning proved me wrong in what was a really strong BM84. Some blame Thornton for the ride but personally, I think it was the horses lack of experience as you can see the horse moving around on the straight. Both horses appear to be group quality. Pioneer River filled out the placings. Squid Game was very disappointing but I am willig to forgive as the form around him is solid and Veranskova running so well demonstrates that.


Randwick

Race 3 - Winner: Cadre Du Noir

In what I deemed to be a two horse race, Cadre Du Noir just managed to get over the top of his nearest rival by 0.25L however, that rival was not Our Candidate (who came 3rd) but instead was So United, who I overlooked. Cadre Du Noir appears to be one that can progress a bit few the grades, maybe even to listed/G3 level and knowing the team behind him, I'd say that is likely. Philipsburg ran a solid 4th.


Race 4 - Winner: Arnaqueur

In a race I deemed a match race between Conqueror and Coodarady, it was the horse that had been racing against by far the best competition of any horse in this race in Arnaqueur that would take this race out and in hindsight, it was easy to see why but it is easy to say in hindsight. Coodarady was very disappointing. I've Been Trying filled out the placings.


Race 6 - Winner: Maotoi

With Smirnova a later scratching, I was incredibly confident Maotoi not only winning but being able to put serious lengths on the field. This was far from the truth as while Maotoi did win, it was far from convincing but a sound enough return first up. He will need to show more second up if he is to turn into the group horse that I believe he is but the gelding operation has at least helped him settle.


Race 7 - Winner: Lord Ardmore

Lord Ardmore proved me wrong and continued on his winning ways with a handy win over Grove Ferry 0.6L behind. I am not sure he can progress to becoming a G3 winner but with his racing pattern, he might be able to do it but I do not believe he will progress much further. Francesco Guardi ran an honest 3rd and La Chevalee came 4th. Alcyone was a slightly disappointing 6th but might not be up to this class. Realm of Flowers returned sound but did not hit the line overly well, we will know more about how she is going in her next start.


Race 8 - Winner: Hard Empire

I could not have been more wrong this race but not many were with hard empire saluting at 71/1 and over 100 on the NSW tote. Not only that, but three unfancied Aus Bloodstock horses ran 2-4. My tip Belluci Babe was beyond disappointing, as were my other fancies in Embracer and Forbidden Love. This confirms the suspicions of many where we will have to be weary of that wet track Sydney form.


Betting Strategy

- Flem R1: Blakmax 0.5 Units (Loss)[4th]

- Flem R3: Veranskova 1 Unit (3.5 Unit Return)

- Flem R6: He's Our Bonneval 1 Unit (Loss)[5th]

- Flem R7: Through Irish Eyes 0.5 Units (Loss)[2nd]

- Flem R8: Winning Partner 0.25 Units (Loss)[2nd]

- Flem R9: Squid Game Place 1 Unit (Loss)[7th]

- Rand R6: Maotoi 1 Unit (2.6 Unit Return)

- Rand R7: Alcyone 0.5 Units (Loss)[6th]

- Rand R8: Belluci Babe 0.5 Units (Loss)[11th]

Overall, we outlayed 6.25 units. With $20 units, that means we returned $122, resulting in a $3 loss. While there was one winner at each track, typically the Flemington runners outperformed the Randwick runners with two close seconds.


Seasonal Outlay: $125

Seasonal Return: $122

Seasonal Profit/Loss: -$3


Tipping

Flemington: 2/9 winners

Randwick: 1/10 Winners

Dooben: 1/9 Winners

Murray Bridge: 1/9 Winners

Belmont: 1/12 Winners (already might retire the 3 major tracks)


Blackbook

Veranskova:

Date Added: 06/08/2022

When To Back: BM78 level at a similar trip, ideally a track with a nice long straight.


Through Irish Eyes:

Date Added: 06/08/2022

When To Back: Open grade 2400m+ horse races, ideally at a similar standard.


Fire: Date Added: 06/08/2022

When To Back: From Benchmark 78-90, preferably on a track with a bend.


So United:

Date Added: 06/08/2022

When to Back: Benchmark 72-78 standard, similar trip. Soft track probably ideal.


Never Again

None from the meets.



Lessons from the meet

- Respect the form of horses who were racing against far better competition (Arnaqueur).

- Be weary of the Sydney autumn form, those tracks may have taken a lot out of the horses.






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