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The Racing Rundown - 08/10/22

Welcome to the Racing Rundown where it was a sensational day of racing at Caulfield but a less sensational day of racing at Randwick. There will also be a preview for the Wednesday meeting at Caulfield so this is jam packed.


G1 Might & Power Stakes

What an unreal race. Feel every runner in this field ran to their peak here at this track and trip and it came down to the last 50 metres with three high quality gallopers battling it out. They went at a reasonable tempo this time, more pace than last time and Alligator Blood led with Zaaki on his outside. Anamoe showed a slightly superior turn of foot to I'm Thunderstruck who squashed the rubbish talk that he could not get to 2000m because he could not run them down over 1800m on a slow tempo. Zaaki was good in third and will benefit from the Valley, especially if he can get the rail. Mr Brightside showed his class and again, quashed the rubbish talk that he is not up to this quality. Maybe he is not the calibre of the top 3 but neither was any other horse in this field and there is nothing wrong with that. Alligator Blood stuck on gamely for 5th and if he draws a good barrier, will enjoy Moonee Valley. Benaud and Nonconformist ran as well as they could have for 6th and 7th and look on track for a Caulfield Cup. I was right in my assessment of Mo'Unga. He is a miler and struggled to show that turn of foot off a better tempo. This is his upper limit however, I will still proceed to the Cox Plate as if they go slower, he can place (if he settles handy).


G1 Caulfield Guineas

This was a terrible rendition and Aft Cabin and Jacquinot punters have every right to be filthy. Golden Mile did not see out the trip but had the class and perfect draw to carry him. Eliptical was fine in second but cannot see him running anywhere other than last in a Cox Plate. Tijuana ran as well as he could have, simply not up to this level at this stage of his career. However, I do want to highlight a few runs. Osipenko savaged the line from a wide draw. 2000m should be fine with the breeding but they did not go overly fast here so hard to tell. Berkely Square probably wins if he gets clear air but I am happy a colt won at least. Amenable was really good again from the wide barrier. So was Bank Maur. If either of those two drew better. Similar can be said for Meridius. Skyphios looked like a derby horse in that, hitting the line with consistency. Millane was the biggest disappointment for mine but was fighting the jockey bad. As he is by Zoustar, the sprint trips would likely be more appropriate.


G1 Toorak Hcp

The map once again proved to be essential. Tuvalu drew perfectly to sit behind the leaders or to lead and that is exactly what happened. Laws of Indices savaged the line for second. He just needed a dry track and a weaker race to show his best and he really did. The Crystal Mile and Champions Mile all seem appropriate races. Military Expert and Gentleman Roy both ran to peak. I Wish I Win may not be up to it and we were likely getting carried away by beating open class horses but I would not give up on him. Pinstriped ran well for 6th and the Golden Eagle seems a suitable race. No Name Lane probably also ran to peak here. The roughies I liked all disappointed. Dalasan was fair and I do not think that G1 will ever come. Bankers Choice did not get a good run at all being held up and then checked. Held up behind Hilal, Character and Uncle Bryn, he picked Hilal and Character gained 1.5L on him in that time. I think it was an underrated run and a Champions Mile could be his race but would rather him if it was still a handicap. Buffalo River is probably more effective over 1400m and on the wet. Converge was beyond disappointing for me however, the market was correct. Hilal also disappointing but I never rated him highly. Callsign Mav had a tongue issue which likely impeded his breeding. Uncle Bryn should have went to the Coongy to make the Caulfield Cup field.


G2 Herbert Power Hcp

Saracen Knight took the race by the scruff off the neck, making a move at the 700m. Jamie Kah to me is the best staying jockey in the business. Her judge of pace is elite and knows when the tempo is slacking. I cannot see Saracen Knight making any plays in the Cup though. He likely gets a 1.5kgs penalty for this and I do not think he is up to it. Makram was good in second again, hitting the line well. Will win a race over 2400m at some point but to me that seems his trip. I doubt he sees out 3200m. Desert Icon ran to his peak in 3rd and proved he was really aided by the Valley last start. Persan should back-up into the Caulfield Cup but Ciaron Maher does not appear to want to do that. Sheraz really hit the line like a 3200m horse. Slowly grinding lengths off the leaders there and hitting the line with a purpose. A very underrated chance for the big race. Schabau is improving rapidly but did get tired towards the end there which is to be expected for a horse who has been through as much as he had. Attorney put in a good run but only carried 53.5kgs. Grand Promenade jumped poorly but I liked what I saw, hit the line with consistent speed and is improving again. Another underrated run here. Emissary every chance. Regal Lion did not see out the trip. Point Nepean sat 3 wide at points and was disappointing but, he does not need to win to qualify so why ride him to win? Still would like to see more.


G2 Schillaci Stakes

Paulele won well here. Had the gun sit on a quick tempo and was taken into the race perfectly. Was struck in the head by Ollie but it did not stop him and he won. Him or Rothfire will likely take out the Manikato. Ingratiating ran super in second and appears to be back. Zoustyle likely did not quite see out the 1100m as his last 200 was 6-7L slower than his prior one. I would drop him back to the Listed Century Stakes on Oaks Day. General Beau resumed well. In The Boat was admirable 3 wide on speed. Could win a Winterbottom but has to beat Elite Street. Queen Of The Ball also stuck on reasonably well off a tough run. Shelby Sixtysix was never in it, needs it heavy 15 to be any chance.


Caulfield

King's Gambit looked serious quality here and beats out Empire of Japan as my top 2yo so far this year. They ran good time as well for early season 2yos but you never truly know with early season 2yo runs. Cardinal Gem proved me wrong with the step up in grade. When doing the form, I completely did not see Morvada who drew perfectly here. In hindsight, would have been a nice each way bet. Jimmy The Bear ran really well for 3rd I thought. I do not know where I sit on the Old Flame ride. On one hand, they went quick early and the horses tired, leaving Kah to a victim of circumstance but on the other hand, probably should have realised the slowing tempo and pulled it out. Purple Sector was ridden upside down but did disappoint. Also not sure where to stand on his run. English Riviera ran and Blake Shinn rode well here. Troach and Nanagui both disappointed me. Nanagui did have some excuses but still disappointed me. Blake Shinn produced one of the best rides I have seen from multiple standpoints. Firstly, it looked like Zethus was going to slide in but Blake picked up the speed, posting Kah three wide. He then kept the horse up enough to keep the gap open enough between Zethus and Prince of Boom and then picked it up. A sensational ride. Zapateo ended the punters day on a bad note, having every chance. Third time in a 1200m mares race this season the favourite has been rolled. (Chain of Lightning rolled Passive Aggressive, Zapateo beat Chain of Lightning and then Literary Magnate beat Zapateo). Turaath only fair in resumption.


Randwick

The meet was called off after race 6 and should have been called off one race earlier. Plenty of pundits suggested it but why did they not start slightly earlier and shorten the breaks between races? I personally think this meeting should be held at Rosehill as it allows a break between the Epsom Meeting and the Everest. Kote won very well and in hindsight, was always a bet but I got spooked by short odds. King Frankel did not repeat his second up efforts. Pink Ivory and Mamounia both disappointed me but the track was well and truly cooked. Ben Melham rode Best of Bordeaux from the front and he won well. He was aided by the track though. Sweet Ride was slightly unlucky for mine, not getting a run at the top of the straight, hurting his momentum. Sky Command led and won. Heresy and Never Talk were very good in second and third. This race should not have happened with the stewards telling them to leave the fence. The best horse did win which was Opal Ridge.


Around The Grounds

Only race I want to look at is across the ditch. La Crique is a serious horse and won very well. Saw a stat saying it was the 16th biggest margin in the 21st century in a NZ G1 race. In my opinion, they are making the smart decision to not back her up and instead, head to the Empire Rose and potentially back her up into either the Champions Mile or Stakes. Imperatriz is a hard one to assess. She appears to be a 1200-1400m horse or needs it dry over further. I want to look at Sha Tin on the Sunday. When discussing the best jockeys in the world, a few names such as James McDonald and Ryan Moore come up an awful lot and sometimes William Buick. In my opinion, Zac Purton is underrated in this discussion and is the best jockey in the world. He never puts his horse in a bad spot and judges where to slot in perfectly right away from the barrier. Hong Kong is the biggest test of a jockey in my opinion. They handicap very well and the best riders typically matter more whereas in Australia, it is typically the best horse that wins. What I find interesting is a jockey I had never heard of before, Harry Bentley picked up the remaining three winners, all at decent odds as well. Salios picked up a G2 win in Japan.


Betting Strategy

Caul R10: Turaath 0.25 units win (5th)

Rand R4: Best of Bordeaux 1 unit win (1st)[$3.30 = $66 Return]

Purple Sector and Converge did not fulfil their requirements as the track never got into good 4. Polly Grey did not get to run as the meet at Randwick was called off. So 1.25 units were outlaid and at $20 units, that is $25. We are so close to being back in the green after a few strong weeks.


Weekly Outlay: $25

Weekly Return: $66

Weekly Profit/Loss: +$41


Seasonal Outlay: $1,085

Seasonal Return: $1,071.5

Seasonal Profit/Loss: -$13.5

Seasonal ROI%: -1.2%


Tipping

Caulfield: 3/10 (24/106)

Randwick: 3/6 (22/96)


Lessons From The Meet

- The barrier draw/speed map is a real thing and does set up a race. Drawing wide really can impede a horse, particularly if the tempo is similar to what they like to do and if the bend comes along fast.

- Because a horse looks good at a lower trip and savages the line does not mean they will be better at a further trip (Mo'Unga, Regal Lion).


Wednesday Preview

Caulfield

R1: 1 Rediener - 3 Federation Rocks - 4 Watadeel - 6 Ferrari Man

R2: 9 Port Philip - 3 Verimli - 4 Wyclif - 1 Herman Hesse

R3: 6 Glint of Hope - 1 Yonkers - 10 Thought Of That - 4 Milford

R4: 7 Aesop - 5 Pounding - 4 White Marlin - 2 Keats

R5: 8 Corona Lad - 1 Kiss Me If You Can - 7 Air Defence - 20 Smokin Toff

R6: 19 Field of Roses - 3 Nugget - 12 Extreme Flight - 8 Pascero

R7: 3 Lofty Strike - 14 Greece - 5 Economics - 1 Daumier

R8: 4 Boogie Dancer - 3 She's Lickety Split - 5 North Star Lass - 1 Russian Conquest R9: 2 Elusive Express - 1 Daisies - 7 Foxy Frida - 16 Roots


I will just write up a few races, either ones I am betting on or the group races. The first is the Coongy Cup. Glint of Hope is carrying a fair bit compared to WFA with allowances. Similarish to Yonkers. I have liked her first two runs though and think she is ready to go third up. Yonkers is the class of the field and also hard to beat. Thought of That gets in light here and his best is good enough but he is sporadic and rarely finds it. Milford has won this track and tip before but it was a weak race. I do not rate Gunstock but the market does so lets see. Pondus and Buckhurst at their best are good enough to win but I am not sure how well they are going. Prix De Turn needs to win to qualify for the cup. Paternal gets to a better trip here.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 6 is interesting. I would really really like Field of Roses if it was not for the barrier draw. The Garden form seems good now and he now meets Pascero 2.5kgs better after only going down by 2.5L. She may not get a start though. Nugget did have good international form and has been backed. Extreme Flights best is up to this but can he rediscover it? Pascero did beat Field of Roses.

Betting Strategy: Field Of Roses 0.25 units win


Race 7 is the highest quality race on the card. For me, Lofty Strike is the one to beat. I thought his form at the time looked poor but he beat English Riviera in his maiden with third being 4L off. He then looked very impressive to the eye winning Prelude. Semillion who came second showed promise. Daumier won the Blue Diamond but has not looked good since. Counttheheadlights however has never ran well since. Jacquinot came 5th and has looked very handy since but was probably unlucky to not win that race. The horses further behind have done well at lower grades since. His recent trial was quite good I thought as well but has no race fitness. Greece looked very dominant and I have always had my eye on her but I completely missed that she was running first up. This is why you should black book horses. She looked very good but a big jump in standard here. Economics has less of a jump in standard here and is a deserving favourite based on exposed form and Opal Ridge form is holding up. Grand Impact has looked very impressive so far but weirdly, I am not sure he is up to it but I am being hypocritical as I am spruiking Greece. Bews and Daumier are the best longer shots.

Betting Strategy: Lofty Strike 0.25 units win


Race 8 is the Group 1 on the card and looks a moderate field. I have a clear top 4 but so does the market. I also agree with the market order but I would have them all closer in price as I believe the tiniest of margins splits Russian Conquest from Boogie Dancer. In saying that, Boogie Dancer is my top seed. She looked very good last time out and if she can replicate, she can win. She's Licketysplit was unlucky that run sitting wide on speed that run but I am unsure if she is good enough to turn the tables. North Star Lass has drawn to lead but breeding suggests she is not a miler but she looked fine in the Flight Stakes which was a far better field than this. Russian Conquest was the best horse in my opinion from the Guineas Prelude but that seems to be a weaker form race and I do believe she may be a 1200-1400m horse. Revolutionary Miss is the best roughie here in my eyes.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


The last of the card. I think the Stocks Stakes form is the right form here especially as it is Set Weights. I will be sticking with the quinella. They are very hard to split I feel and both have drawn very wide which is unfortunate. I will be siding with Elusive Express as she has drawn slightly further in and probably is a slightly better shot to slot in because of it. Foxy Frida has drawn further in but is not quite of the above quality. Roots has drawn the best but I cannot help but feel she is up to these horses. Has every chance of getting pushed back on the fence if she does not jump well. Sirileo Miss, Chaillot and Steinem could all win this if they find their best form but I do not know if they can. I think Sirileo Miss from that draw is the best chance of those 3.

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Warwick Farm R8: 3 Williamsburg - 5 Sharp N Smart - 11 Bunker Hut - 2 Promitto

Will just talk about a select race here as it is mostly just a midweek meeting with one G1 race and I know I usually write up a Vic meet of the same calibre but that is because I feel I know more about Victorian racing. Feel the extra few days really helps Williamsburg and the heavy 10 really suits. The one to beat. Sharp and Smart is the better horse but the Heavy 10 is a real query. Bunker Hut appears to enjoy the soft at least and for the quality of this field, I do not believe a 1.5L maiden grade win is far off this at all. Promitto probably is another that prefers the wet. Trip appears to be a query though.

Betting Strategy: Williamsburg 0.5 Units Win

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