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The Racing Rundown -10/09/2022

Welcome to the Racing Rundown, this one for Makybe Diva Stakes day and boy, were there a lot of key talking points. I will be assessing key races individually, then the general card as well as some around the grounds action. A review of the staking and tipping, plus some lessons from the meet. Also as a side note, it is ridiculous that I am releasing these so late and from now on, they will always be up by Sunday Night latest.


G1 Makybe Diva Stakes

I am pretty happy with myself. Not only did I tip the first four, but I mapped out exactly how the race would go, and also had 5,6,7,8 in the correct order on my personal assessment. Unfortunately, I did not back anything here but that is fine. I'm Thunderstruck announced himself as the horse to beat in the Cox Plate, yes I said it. To reel in Alligator Blood who had it very easy was so impressive, one of the most visually impressive wins I have seen and I see further improvement off of that. Plus Alligator Blood is a very good horse. Mo'Unga was very solid in 3rd as was Cascadian in 4th, both of which ran to their peaks IMO, just the strength of the top 2 here is superior. Western Empire, Regal Power and Nonconformist were fair but I am baffled that Peters has pulled the preps on both. Surely it is far too early to do so as both looked reasonable first up. I guess you give them a spell now and target the Northerly Stakes this way.


G2 Bobbie Lewis Hcp

I thought I did a good thing with the Quinella and backing Roch N Horse, the NEwmarket winner at that price to win on my personal account but it was Baller of all horses who ruined my day, one of the first I put a line through in the field. Roch N Horse was super though and wins that if it was a WFA. Swats That has returned well here. WA Gallopers were good in 4th and 5th. The Astrologist, Shooting For Gold and Stageman all only fair and again, I am surprised the pulled the prep on Stageman, particularly with how well he went first up but I guess the Winterbottom is a target. Zoutori slightly disappointing and Roheryn very disappointing.


G2 Run To The Rose

I am quietly confident after what we have seen so far from this crop, that a filly will be winning the Golden Rose. At this stage, my top 3 chances are female, especially if it is wet ground. In Secret won here and won well. She is a deserving favourite for the race. JMac actually let Best of Bordeaux be fast here but was beaten by a good one. I would go to the Heritage Stakes next and then assess if the Everest is the right option. Sweet Ride ran well again. Nettuno could also be deemed somewhat unlucky not to beat him home again. Fireburn was beyond excellent for mine. Trainer was not keen pre-race at all saying she will be far better with the run and at 1400m and the way she hit the line makes her my top seed for the Golden Rose, especially in the heavy. Political Debate disappointing but was never wound up for this. Sejarden and Swiss Exile both were disappointing though. By the way, the other filly I like is She's Extreme.


Flemington

Should never have been sucked into backing Alpha One as I was not that keen on this race but oh well. Doull was only fair, as was Brereton. I was right that Matthew Smith would not send Buenos Noches down for nothin and I was correct in my assessment that Spacewalk could not run straight but I did not think it would be from losing on a protest. Btw, it most certainly should have been upheld. Makram looked very good in race two, as did Great House and Young Werther who both did it with weight. San Huberto was also deceptively good. Zeyrek and Persan disappointing. Nanagui was over the odds but did not think she would win, let alone that well. I really liked Ruthless Dame for the Thousand Guineas off of that but she is not nominated. A shame as I had her picked a when they first clashed for that race. A lot of the market disappointed (Get In The Spirit, Ojai, English Riviera, Ghaanati). Scallopini won very well here. Pinstriped solid in second. Bermadez and Lightsaber a bit meh. May as well just back Ciaron Maher in any race over 2400m. Vow & Declare is back in a big way after lumping serious weight, not getting a run until the straight and worked home very well. Team Captain won the battle of the brothers. King of the Castle and Interpretation both solid. Point Nepean was never here to win. Serpentine looks gone. Kissonallfourcheeks won very well. Lady of Honour and Yearning both good here. Flying Mascot only moderate. Could be a decent form race. Berkeley Square won well and shows I have not been respecting him enough. Fast Witness and Tijuana good. Foujita San, Letsrollthedice and Cadazio disappointing.


Rosehill

Skipping the Highway and Midway as nothing of note. Herman Hesse won Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace another staying race. Impulsar and Monfelicity both very disappointing. Sacaren Knight and Oz Legend solid. Pink Ivory I did like but more as a place chance and back her 3rd up kind of thing. She won well and I missed out. Fifth Position ran accordingly. Remarque I am very frustrated with. Backed first up last prep after sensational trials and got spanked. Wins this here. Hate the stable as they provide no insight to their runners but the horse did have a windpipe issue so can claim excuses. He never lacked ability, that is for sure. Clemenceau and Tristate both good. Heresy, Bacchanalia and Shaquero all fair. Golden Mile looked really good and must be considered for both the Golden Rose and Caulfield Guineas, very big win. Williamsburg is back and carried weight here, just needed a start for the legs. Basquiat solid again. Conqueror, Rise of the Masses, Magic and Zou Tiger all disappointing. Kiku won well and I did not consider her. Mr Mozart, Prime Candidate all super. Jamaea probably a drop back to 1200m. Kementari was huge there and looks to be in for another good prep, especially on the Sydney wet. Ellsberg alright. Kolding disappointing but think nowadays, he is a 1600-2000m horse. Shades of Rose good again but G3 seems to be here level off that. Tremendous improvement though. It's Me huge and is a chance in the Kosciuszko. Espiona and Startantes both only fair. Fituese should go to the barn. Waterford is a group winner in waiting. Is it too late for an Epsom? I think so but could be a Golden Eagle, The Gong horse. About time the finally stepped Tamerlane up in trip. The breeding clearly suggests 2000m so a mile seems appropriate. Canasta and Mana Nui both meh.


Betting Strategy:

Flem R1: Alpha One 1 unit win (10th)

Flem R3: Get In The Spirit 0.25 units win (16th)[last placed in both 3yo equivalent races]

Flem R7: 5,6 0.5 units quinella (1st, 7th)

Flem R8: 4,7,12 0.5 units quinella (2nd, 3rd, 6th)

Rose R4: Fifth Position 0.25 units win (5th)

Rose R9: Startantes 0.25 units win (7th)

Leop R4: Point King 1 unit win (9th)

Using $20 units, that is 3.75 units outlayed for a total of $75 and a return of $0. A very disappointing result with a big lesson to take away at the end. Honestly, I am happy with how I assessed the major races across the cards though for the most part. Feel I read them well enough but does not mean anything if you do not land a winner. Point King was out of it at the turn which sucked.


Weekly Outlay: $75

Weekly Return: $0

Weekly Profit/Loss: -$75


Seasonal Outlay: $650

Seasonal Return: $525.5

Seasonal Profit/Loss: -$124.5

Seasonal ROI%: -19.2%


Tipping

Caulfield: 2/9 (9/54)

Randwick: 3/10 (10/60)


Lessons From The Meet

- Do not back horses for the sake of providing tips. Alpha One and Fifth position were all horses I did not like enough for bets but I chose to back them anyway. $25 could have been saved here. Yes, a winner would still not have been found but saved some money in the long run. Get In The Spirit and Startantes were both speculative.

- Ciaron Maher is different gravy in staying races.

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