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The Racing Rundown - 13/08/22

Updated: Aug 27, 2022

Welcome to the second racing rundown, this one for PB Lawrence Stakes Day. It was certainly a tough day on the punt but I feel we were not alone. Let us get into the main talking points.


Caulfield

Race 1 - Jimmy The Bear

While I got the top 4 correct, I did not identify the winner and did not give Jimmy The Bear the respect he deserved in hindsight coming up from 3yo grade to take out some impressive older horses. So Si Bon ran well for second and going each way would have given us a winner. Chief Altony ran well for third. I would like to highlight Vow & Declare's run who ran on very nicely after trialling well, a Geelong Cup is at his mercy.


Race 2, 3 & 4 - Beaten tips (Barbie's Fox, Little Stevie & I Am Bene)

I did not feel these races were big enough to warrant a run down however, I had three tips beaten here. Americain Angel probably needs Flemington at this point, but is approaching never again for my own sanity. I cannot believe how bad She's All Class went, she found little luck at the top of the straight but showed nothing in the finish. Willing to forgive. I was originally not going to back Lady of Honour and she ran like a 26/1 pop. Winner might be decent though.


Race 5 - Giga Kick

In a promising rendition of the Vain Stakes, Giga Kick just managed to run down Alpha One, both of which appear to be very solid horses. Giga Kick recorded the fastest 400 of the meeting and to me, is a very live Coolmore chance and proved that the established traditional 2yo form this year would be close to worthless (although I did not punt accordingly last Saturday). Millane also looks very good and Cannonball solid. Semillion very disappointing.


Race 6 - Bound For Home

Now off to the fillies where Bound For Home won in a very quick time but that was probably a due to the track. Ojai was 2nd who is starting to build a reasonable portfolio. As for others, established horses such as Lady Laguna and Ebhaar were reasonable. Two spruiked horses in Typhoon Titmus and Lomandra were disappointing but could improve with more racing.


Race 7 - Uncommon James

A horse who I had not heard of before last week came out and won very well and will be a live chance in the Rupert Clarke Hcp. Ranges was strong as well bringing down Qld form and William Thomas was consistent as usual. Sinawann returned well but Lombardo was very disappointing, which was to be expected given Price's comments.


Race 8 - Mr Brightside

Mr Brightside returned in good order and appears that he will be G1 WFA competitive across what he contests this year. I Am Superman returned well and could be competitive in a Rupert Clarke. Buffalo River ran how I thought Streets of Avalon would, ruining the trifecta (kind of), watch out if he finds a wet deck at similar grade. Regal Power returned far better than I expected and looks to be in for a good prep, feel we as punters ignore him too often. Streets of Avalon is fair, and probably does need to be 3rd and 4th up nowadays, plus likely not as good anymore. Elephant only fair on return.


Rosehill

Race 5 - Riduna

While I called Tawfiq Lass and Riduna as the two biggest chances to upset Frumos, I did not expect Frumos to be held up like he did and it was sickening however, I would argue with how the track was playing, she was doomed from the start and was not winning that with the position Riduna was in. Still a bad watch though.


Race 6 - Surefire

Another race where it pays to go with your gut. I had liked Surefire all week but decided Mugatoo would just be too good, even with all those negatives and what do you know, Surefire wins and Mugatoo runs last on return. The horse may be done or just taking some time to get back from his injuries as he has been out for a while. Surefire on the otherhand could be a Metropolitan horse or a place chance in a Caulfield Cup.


Race 8 - Zoukerino

Speaking of bad watches, I have to feel for Spacewalk backers. It would have been sickening to get the early price of 26 or any price at all and watch him look home for all money and veer out like that. Regardless, Zoukerino still ran well to win. Troach filled out the placings and Kibou came in 4th. Sweet Ride, Sebonack and Voldemort were all disappointing.


Other Races

Behemoth returned poorly but had excuses with a jockey that was almost passed out after he reared up at the start. Raging Bull has returned very well and seems to be competitive for Sydney staying races and lower class group races in Victoria. Shade's Of Rose looks to be a very very promising horse who is group quality.


Betting Strategy

Flem R1: So Si Bon 0.25 Units Win (Loss)[2nd]

Flem R2: Americain Angel 0.5 Units Win (Loss)[3rd]

Flem R3: She's All Class (Loss)[7th]

Flem R4: Lady of Honour 1 Unit Win (Loss)[7th]

Flem R8: Streets of Avalon 0.25 Unit Win, 0.75 Unit Place (Loss)[7th]

Flem R8: Boxed Tri 2,3,7,8 0.6 Units (Loss)[1st, 2nd, 7th, 8th]

Rose R5: Frumos 1 unit win (Loss)[7th]

Very disappointing day on the punt, losing all $125 outlayed from $20 units. Had a few close ones at Caulfield but staggering out of my 6 singles bets, 4 ran 7th. Interesting tidbit.


Weekly Outlay: $125

Weekly Return: $0

Weekly Profit/Loss: -$125


Seasonal Outlay: $250

Seasonal Return: $122

Seasonal Profit/Loss: -$128

Seasonal ROI%: -51.2% (Ouch)


Tipping

Caulfield: 2/9 (4/18)

Rosehill: 1/10 (2/20)

Eagle Farm: 1/9 (2/18) Morphettville: 1/9 (2/18)

Belmont: 2/9 (3/21)


Blackbook

Millane

Date Added: 13/08/22

When To Back: G3/LR 3yo class racing, sprint distances, ideally with some speed.


Buffalo River

Date Added: 13/08/22

When To Back: Group 2-3 Class (G1 if very low weight), wet deck, 1400-1600m ideally where he maps for a soft lead.


Previously added

Veranskova: 06/08/22

Through Irish Eyes: 06/08/22

Fire: 06/08/22

So United: 06/08/22


Never Again

None from this meet but Americain Angel is pushing it.


Lessons from the Meet

- Be very careful with traditional 2yo form, it is next to confetti besides a few.

- Be careful of Rosehill, track typically loves the rail.

- Back in original judgement, not others too highly.

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