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The Racing Rundown - 15/10/2022

What an eventful day. Two states having some quality racing on display and with some results I did not expect. (was meant to publish Tuesday before the Geelong Cup and forgot)

The Everest

First of all, I would like to issue an apology to Giga Kick. I said he should be 100/1 and was the worst chance in the race. I will happily eat my words as this is just a great result for racing. For the smaller breeders, trainers and less resourced. What a day. Nature Strip was the run of the race being 4 lanes wide at the bend. He stuck on beyond well and should lose no admirers. Think he lost 3L out there and it is telling as to where the other on pacers finished. Private Eye ran a drum in second and ran to his peak. Mazu looks to be very solid and probably goes closer if they get going at a similar time to the winner. Jacquinot stormed home for 5th losing no admirers. Overpass and Kementari both handy in 6th and 7th. Shades of Rose went as well as she could have in 8th. Good to see Masked Crusader still cannot jump, spotting the field 3L. Joyful Fortune went about as well as a leader on that tempo could have. Eduardo cost Nature Strip the race and himself in the process. Ingratiating was beyond poor and the back up likely did not help.


The Caulfield Cup

Durston beat the handicapper as they say and won well with a light weight today. For that, I would expect to see a 1-1.5kg penalty. I did think he could win but in hindsight, I should have gave him more respect as he did not enjoy the heavy latest. Still will not have a bar of him for the Melbourne Cup though (I think, can never be too sure until the barrier draw). What an economical ride from Mick Dee as well. Gold Trip ran out of his skin carrying 57.5kgs. Again, an oversight considering he ran 4th in the Arc on a bog. Knights Order is just super consistent. Equal run of the race for mine drawing wide, hitting the first bend wide. If he can draw 4-8 in the cup, he will be a very live chance. Montefilia was the other run of the race, coming from far back and hitting the line with serious purpose. Is a strong chance for the cup in my eyes. Numerian ran to peak in 5th. Vow & Declare looks to be on song for a Melbourne Cup. Not saying he will win, I do not think he will but he is yet to put a foot wrong this prep and is flying. Smokin Romans had a great run, just was not up to it. Duais needs a genuine tempo. 3200m should help. Sound ran out of his skin considering he started poorly and was on slightly unfavourable ground. I hope he lands a stud deal in Aus or NZ. Nonconformist was fine. Alegron picked up well and 3200m will be perfect but probably not up to them. Benaud was disappointing, may not have appreciated the back-up. Great House would want good ground. No Compromise received a poor ride but he had to make a move off that slow tempo so was more a victim of circumstance actually. I just hope for a genuine ran cup, that is all.


Rest of Caulfield

Quang Tri won well enough in the first. Cap De Joie was good but disappointed punters. Mr Maestro has the derby to lose at this stage but something could bob up as a horse typically does. Did not think much of the mares equivalent, neither the 1400m boys race. I need to respect Mark Newnham more when it comes to sending his horses down or Paul Messara. When smaller trainers or trainers for that matter send their horse to a state that they normally do not run in, you have to respect their decision. Asfoora made amends and then some winning today. Dragonstone disappointing. Chain of Lightning looks very handy. Palpasipan ran very well in second. Aegon capped off a sensation day for Andrew Forsman. Bandersnatch was a tad stiff. Sinawann better, Catalyst disappointing. To me, Caulfield looked heavy, not a soft 6.


Rest of Randwick

Cascadian won well enough and did leave it late but never looked in doubt. Just Folk was promising in second. Stockman proved he had the right form in the 4th. Something must have happened to Cadre Du Noir. Sacramento continues to impress. Front Page won the Kosciuszko. In The Congo probably should have went to the rail to block a run, rare error in judgement from JMac and not the last today. Rocketing By did rocket by him at long odds. Good to see this was 2 million well spent, smh. Back Waihaha Falls next start on rain affected going though. Vilana looked very handy winning the Silver Eagle. Brigantine and Kiss Sum best suited to a Golden Eagle off of that though. Mr Mozart every chance. Ellsberg was a weighted certainty and proved it here. Honeycreeper beyond unlucky. Polly Grey looked the winner at one point. Props to the winner though


Around The Grounds

The run of Baaeed stopped. Think it is fair to say that Flightline is clearly the best horse in the world. Verry Elleegant had every chance here and flopped. Made the right decision to retire her. Her old sparring partner was no good either.


Betting Strategy

Caul R7 - Dragonstone 1 Unit Win (5th)

Rand R4 - Stockman 1 Unit Win (1st)[$3.50 - Return $70]

Rand R5 - Anethole 0.25 Units Win (8th)[

Rand R8 - Mr Mozart 1 Unit Win (2nd)

Rand R9 - Ellsberg 1 Units Win (1st)[$2.80 - Return $56]

Rand R10 - Polly Grey 0.25 Units Win (4th)

So 4.5 units were outlaid. $90 assuming $20 units (I will stop writing this every time, always assume $20 units). With two getting up, that returned a handy $126 and with that, we are into the green for the first time since I started this blog. The only thing I am slightly annoyed about is that I was more confident in Stockman and Ellsberg compared to Dragonstone and Mr Mozart so I should have unit bet accordingly but I will happily take being in the green.


Weekly Outlay: $90

Weekly Return: $126

Weekly Profit/Loss: $36


Seasonal Outlay: $1,190

Seasonal Return: $1,197.5

Seasonal Profit/Loss: $7.5

Seasonal ROI%: +0.6%


Tipping

- Caulfield: 2/10 (27/125)

- Randwick: 4/10 (26/107)




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