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The Racing Rundown - 20/08/22

Updated: Aug 27, 2022

Welcome to the third Racing Rundown, this one for the G1 Winx Stakes on the the 20th of August. I am also retiring the blackbook and never again file as I am providing tips and they serve the same purpose.


Moonee Valley

Race 3 - Cyclone Sally

Do these silks just make you run 5L better in the wet or something. Cyclone Sally did have good wet form but this was a tougher standard however, it did not matter as she downed Lackeen. Lackeen also proved that he is more than just a dry tracker. Shot Of Irish was given a very poor ride after jumping well, Egan elected to not try and cross and settle back last and made little ground. Forgive.


Race 5 - Fast Witness

I was right about Foujita San not being the right horse to back here, however I was even more wrong in tipping Chester Warrior but a horse with a similar profile ended up winning here. The Shalaman form further solidifies both Giga Kick and Alpha One as serious 3yos. I personally do not think however that many from this race will be major spring player.


Race 8 - Bella Nipotina

Typical to the Valley, there was a slight advantage to horses near the speed today but it was certainly not impossible to win off the speed. Bella Nipotina was one of those horses and once again, the best horse in the race wins at SW+P level showing you should follow the class. Mileva a handy 2nd but a much better run. Extremely Lucky was a strong 3rd and was not disgraced by any stretch and comes closer with the winners run. Sound return from G1 winner Roch n Horse. Esta La Roca was solid again but probably slightly outside of her class range.


The other races

I identified Clarity as a threat but thought she would be better over 1400m. Could be a Thousand Guineas type. The Berkeley Square form somewhat held up here with the same 2nd and 3rd occurring. Mimi's Award ran another typically honest race but track was against her. Avoid backing Frankel progeny on wet here in Aus. Mayfair Spirit left me with egg on my face in a major way. Mankayan ran well here and is building a promising profile. Irish Flame honest again on wet and Smokin Romans has gone well (Bart Cummings?). The Garden was no good here with Zakat coming very close against Sam's Image (Kelly is a gun apprentice). Sacred Palace is one to follow.


Randwick

Race 5 - Showmanship

Feel I read this race reasonably well. Showmanship went very well here, showing off his turn of foot but people need to pump the breaks. The Randwick track played fairly (outside of the inside rail) and only ran down prime candidate. A group 1 is out of reach but I would still expect improvement next start. King of Sparta looks to have found his level around the LR/G3 grade.


Race 7 - Zapateo

Zapateo is a serious horse and continues to hold the Mazu form in good light however, I cannot help but feel if Jamaea had a slightly more positive ride or had some luck at the top of the straight, she would have been right in the finish. Big watch on both of these two heading into mares grade races. Sky Command, Boomnova and Smirnova all solid. Belluci Babe is not her former self and Fituese was disappointing.


Race 8 - Anamoe

I was well wrong here. Anamoe proved to be superior first up and the two trials probably had him fit and firing for this and it certainly showed, winning it with ease. I see improvement to come from both Profondo and Fangirl, the former because he appeared to not settle overly well in the run and seemed keen but still finished off nicely and Fangirl due to that turn of foot. Both should be the main chances for the Epsom. Hilal, Hinged and Benaud all solid, especially Benaud holding up the Hitotsu form on a distance well below his best. Forbidden Love is not the same horse as she was in the autumn and Icebath and Stockman both went as well as they could have. Mo'Unga very disappointing but after jumping well, he fell back through the field and then could not find a gap at the top of the straight but still a disappointing run. Need to see more next start.


Race 9 - Zougotcha

Zougotcha won this race well and looks to be a reasonably good filly. In Secret however was far superior, being shifted back through the field and hitting the line very well and she is definitely one to follow. North Star Lass, Queen of the Ball and Willinga Beast all get a pass. Revolutionary Miss continues to add to the woes of the Blue Diamond/Early Victorian form. Snitcat also tempers the hype I have on Russian Conquest.


The Other Races

Another longshot won the Highway in Pokerjack. The Victorian staying form proved to be superior again, even from the synthetic grade. Scorched Land won the Midway. Niffler proved me wrong and the odds correct however, it is likely Equation does not like the trip. I did mention Araphao but still thought Le Don De Vie would be too strong but he was not disgraced with that weight. I tipped the top 4 here but my first horse ran 4th. Zarastro is almost in my never again.


Betting Strategy

MV Race 3 - Shot of Irish 0.5 Units Place (Loss)[5th]

MV Race 4 - Mimi's Award 0.5 Units Win (Loss)[3rd]

Rand Race 4 - Equation 0.5 Units Place (Loss)[8th]

Rand Race 5 - Showmanship 1 Unit Win (Win)[3.3 units returned]

Rand Race 6 - Le Don De Vie 0.25 Units Win, 0.75 Units Place (Loss)[7th]

Rand Race 8 - Mo'Unga 1 Unit Win (Loss)[10th]

Rand Race 9 - Queen Of The Ball 0.5 Units Place (Loss)[4th]{So Close}

Rand Race 9 - Snitcat 0.25 Units Place (Loss)[11th]

Rand Race 10 - Zarastro 1 Unit Win (Loss)[4th]

Overall, it was another poor day on the punt, with a few poor rides mixed in but backed a lot of bad horses. Hopefully, we can get a winning week next weekend when group 1 racing returns to Victoria.


Weekly Outlay: $125

Weekly Return: $66

Weekly Profit/Loss: -$59


Seasonal Outlay: $375

Seasonal Return: $188

Seasonal Profit/Loss: -$187

Seasonal ROI%: -49.9%


Tipping

Moonee Valley: 1/9 (5/27)

Randwick: 1/10 (3/30)

Doomben: 0/9 (2/27)

Murray Bridge: 2/9 (4/27)

Belmont: 2/9 (5/30)


I will be retiring all my tips from Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia. While I better this week in two of the three states, my tips do not have enough research in them to warrant me publishing them to the public whereas I put far more effort into Sydney and especially Melbourne. However, if anyone would be interested in publishing a weekly article for these states and contributing to the yearly review, hit me up.


Lessons From The Meet

- The 4yos seem to be different gravy.

- Back the best horse more often at WFA and SW+P.

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