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The Racing Rundown - 24/09/22

G1 Moir Stakes

A hot race on paper and did not disappoint from a viewing perspective. Coolangatta led start to finish and Jamie Kah did everything a front running jockey needed to do. Bella Nipotina was huge in second and will be one of, if not the top seeds in the Manikato. Zoustyle was huge in 3rd, receiving a far harder run than the two above sitting 2-3 wide the run but stuck on gamely. Will be a leading chance in the Schillaci or Caulfield Sprint when those races come. Probably was unlucky not to run a placing and is a super consistent galloper. Rothfire probably missed a run at the top of the straight but was entitled to finish off a bit better but can be hard when you lose momentum. Still a top chance in the Manikato. Paulele ran on well but probably will not figure in an Everest. The rest behind did not show a lot but was hard to run on that day. The only disappointment really was Malkovich.


G1 The Golden Rose

Melbourne form winning a 3yo race in Sydney is odd but Jacquinot has always had ability. He went real wide down the outside and won. This makes Aft Cabin look an even better bet in the Guineas. In Secret had no excuses, was given a perfect ride and she was simply not good enough but was still very game in defeat. Golden Mile and Zou Tiger both probably ran to their peaks as they had good runs in transit but it was unknown territory for Golden Mile. Fireburn probably lost this at the barrier draw forcing her to have to go to the back and run home hard. If she strikes a wet track in the Surround Stakes, I cannot see how she loses. She's Extreme probably also went as well as she could have on dry ground. Millane probably finishes 6th with more room. Daumier (did not settle overly well) and Sejarden both sat 3 wide but did have cover however, that means extra metres. Sebonack was disappointing after a much improved second up run but did not appear to settle overly well. Paris Dior probably wants a wetter track and to not sit 3 wide on speed without cover. Fast Witness had a tough jump but was disappointing. Political Debate really needs to show more 3rd up and a step up should help but looks way off for the Guineas at this stage.


G1 Underwood Stakes

What an interesting result. I personally thought with Zaaki in the race, there would be more speed but they ran slower than the BM78 on the same day with a very slow first 1000m. This made it a very slow tempo and not a true 1800m race, more like a mile which suited Alligator Blood perfectly as he controlled the race from start to finish and looked good doing so. As Zaaki came to challenge him, he kicked away even further. Mo'Unga looked good in second and is now in the Cox Plate discussion. Their original plan was to keep him to the mile so another go at 2000m will be more telling however, this was not a true 1800m race. Zaaki got hit in the head by the Clarks whip at the 200m. Hard to say how that affected him but he was around a length slower than him after that. I'm Thunderstruck finished off well and was disadvantaged by the slow tempo but with how he hit the line last week, he could be a 1400-1600m horse. Next start will be more telling for him and Mr Brightside although, I will say it seems as if Mr Brightside is only G1 WFA competitive on the heavy but may be wrong. Nonconformist a complete forgive as he does not have the class over 1800m.


Moonee Valley

Kaygeebee proved that a strong 3yo performance in maiden grade is good enough for a 3yo open grade this time of year. A fair few disappointments in behind with El Padrino, Shalaman and Three Rings. The 3yo fillies were a bit superior with Queen of the Ball franking the strong Sydney form. Troach, English Riviera, Lady Laguna and Ojai were all fine. I'mlovinya was probably the only disappointing one. Zethus was given the ride of the night in my opinion. Clemenceau did not have any favours and a win is most certainly looming. Snapper went far too hard, Extreme Flight and Pioneer River both disappointing but the winners were very good. The Stutt stakes to me does not seem to be the form into the Guineas at least the winner. Tijuana was solid but Foujita San sat wider and had the tougher run and Virtuous Circle was simply too far back. The rest behind from 4th-7th were fine but not good enough for a Guineas off that. Asfoora was a moral beaten in that getting swallowed by the field. Back him in whatever he contests. Was very even from the rest with only The Front Bar beating a notable disappointment. Desert Icon in hindsight was a very easy bet with how the track was playing but I missed it easily. I doubt he replicates a performance that strong again. Nerve Not Verve and Persan were only fair and will be better over further. Makram did not have an easy run. Grand Promenade was disappointing and serious questions if the Cup run cooked him. Sound was not great second up but I believe did that this time last year.


Rosehill

Kote was a thing beaten in the Midway and should win next time he contests a Midway. Quality Time looked really handy winning that Benchmark 88. It will be interesting to see if he goes onto better things. Alcyone, Hameron, Wicklow and Caboche were all fair and appear to be at their grade. Grove Ferry just edged out heavily favoured Cadre Du Noir and Herman Hesse. Mohican Heights was fine in fourth. Hard to see any of these horses figuring in the spring however, Cadre Du Noir hit the first bend 3 wide on speed in a 6 horse field which was a very tough run. Finepoint won again and seems to be a promising galloper. Not much to say on the rest of the field with 11th only being under 4L off. Just quickly though, remember when Dadoozdart first arrived and was backed every run for the first year. Economics won really well which while he trialled well I was still surprised. Opal Ridge was good in second. Semillion was incredibly disappointing, considering how his second up run looks in hindsight but he did pull up a slow recovery. Nimalee was by far the most credentialled horse and again, hindsight is a wonderful thing but Palaisipan did push her the whole way. Espiona was fine in 4th and a win is not far away but she is not going to reach the hype that once found her but was still good. Startantes needs to show more 3rd up but was only 3.8L off with a top weight. Surf Dancer won and appears to finally be acclimatising in Australia. Old Flame was good in second. Ellsberg carried weight but probably wants a wet track and 1400m to show his best. Dr Drll is ever consistent. Fire continues to disappoint me. He is running well.


Sandown

Picarones continued the Jamie Kah dominance giving her her 8th win in 3 days. Pascero finally delivered on what his first up run promised. Field Of Roses win not far away, nor does Chartres. Aesop won well and Pounding is also probably superior to BM78 grade. Bank Maur looked reasonable in winning. Counttheheadlights was just likely never that good and took advantage of a weaker 2yo crop. Regal Lion looked very very good winning that swooping the field and where was that in the Qld carnival mind you. Bermadez solid in second. Slightly disappointed in Glint of Hope as she was one of my best bets of the weekend but realistically it was a fine run. A 5 way finish essentially in the 1400m 3yo fillies race. Russian Conquest was the most impressive for my liking but not sure I would want to be with anything for the Thousand Guineas from here but who knows how strong that field will be so I might have to. Outside the top 5, Revolutionary Miss was the best in my opinion. Gentleman Roy led start to finish and Military Expert was 2nd the whole way. Pinstriped was solid in third. Dragon Leap came 4th but was slightly disappointing off of his first up run I thought. Our Playboy, Age of Chivalry and Sinawann all receive passes. Pondus was actually quite good for a resuming stayer. I Wish I Win could not have looked any better. Held up at the top of the straight for some time, gets out quite late and worked past them with ease. Apparently the goal is the Toorak and then maybe the Cox Plate so he should add some intrigue. I would head the way of the Golden Eagle though but Moody knows best. Ayrton was fine in 2nd and has found his level. Bandersnatch was also quite good in third. Catalyst looked to loom large at the 100m but failed to run it out however, that second up run showed serious improvement and I believe he could get back to his best. If the Gator could, so can he.


Betting Strategy

MV R2: 0.25 units win Ojai (6th)

MV R4: 1 unit win Tijuana (1st)[$46 return]

MV R6: 0.25 units win Sound (6th)

MV R7: 0.25 units win Coolangatta (1st)[$32.5 return]

Rose R4: 1 unit win Cadre Du Noir (2nd)

Rose R6: 0.5 units 1,3 Quinella (2nd & 5th)

Rose R7: 0.25 units 1,2,8 Boxed Tri (1st, 4th & 11th)

Rose R8: 0.5 units win Fireburn (5th)

Rose R10: 1 unit win Fire (4th)

Morn R7: 0.5 units win King of the Castle (6th)

Sand R4: 0.5 units place Counttheheadlights (8th)

Sand R5: 1 unit win Glint of Hope (5th)

Sand R9: 0.5 units win Ayrton (2nd)

There were no conditions to the bets that I placed so the 7.5 unit outlay remained.


Weekly Outlay: $150

Weekly Return: $78.5

Weekly Profit/Loss: -$71.5


Seasonal Outlay: $820

Seasonal Return: $642

Seasonal Profit/Loss: -$

Seasonal ROI%: -21.7%


Tipping

Moonee Valley/Mornington/Sandown: 8/25 (18/88)

Rosehill: 1/10 (15/80)


Lessons From The Meet

- Was a previous lesson but do not back too many horses.

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