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The Weekend Preview - 24/09/22

Welcome to the Weekend Preview for the whole weekends racing. Yes, that includes Friday, Saturday and Sunday in what is the biggest weekend of racing (so far) for the season with 3 Group 1s across 3 different days.


Moonee Valley

Race 1 - Open 1200m 3yo C&G SW+P

To kick off the weekend, we have a solid race for young horses. Kaygeebee was a dominant winner at Pakenham in a maiden which around this time of year, can be good enough form for these grades. Shalaman has proven form, with the place getters behind him latest ran well behind Aft Cabin. Three Rings was 4th behind some solid Sydney types, which typically proves to be the better form for 3yos. El Padrino is a consistent galloper.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 2 - LR Scarborough Stakes 1200m 3yoF SW+P

A lot of speed here. Ojai draws well to sit off them and go boom when they tire. The other three leaders make up the 2-4 spots. Lady Laguna probably the best of them, followed by English Riviera. Queen of the Ball has drawn the widest but soft 5 helps.

Betting Strategy: 0.25 Units Ojai


Race 3 - BM84 1200m Hcp

Clemenceau was very good behind Remarque but not sure I want to be on at those odds. Still my top tip though. Extreme Flight tempts me at odds, drawn reasonable, and went very well first up last prep. Pioneer River has been running very consistently but drawn wide here. Snapper also is a class galloper.

Betting Strategy: No bet


Race 4 - G2 Stutt Stakes 1500m 3yo SW

Tijuana was very handy behind some solid types last start and will surprise me if he does not win. Virtuous Circle could be a chance at odds, winning at the track close to this distance on heavy as well. Letsrollthedice had strong 2yo form but has looked hopeless this prep. He's Heaven is the probable leader which could be the place to be. Foujita San was luckless last start and can improve on the drier ground.

Betting Strategy: 1 Unit Tijuana win


Race 5 - BM84 955m Hcp

Another tough race. Love the 55 second challenge. Asfoora has had a nice start to her career and gets in well at the weights but a tad short at the time of jump with how much speed is in this field (particularly with Yulong Drawing 1). The Front Bar comes over from WA with strong form and does not mind it wet. Galenus maps to box seat and should get a nice run. Yulong Command could lead and likes this trip but carrying weight.

Betting Strategy: No Bet.


Race 6 - G3 JRA Cup 2040m Hcp

Sound was really strong, almost matching motors with Spanish Mission and Inspirational Girl first up. Appealing at odds. Grand Promenade has missed I believe 3 first up assignments no so question on how well he is travelling but is the best horse in this race IMO. Persan will be much improved here stepping up and on wet ground. Makram was good last start but a step up in grade here.

Betting Strategy: Sound 0.25 units win


Race 7 - G1 McEwen Stakes 1000m WFA

Rothfire won a very hot McEwen last start and should be favourite here. I do believe his best is over further but he is class. Coolangatta could turn the tables on him though as she maps to get a far better run here and is better suited to the trip. Bella Nipotina has drawn wide here but loves the Valley and enjoys it wet. I feel Paulele is a bit overrated, Mazu form has been strong below G1 level but not at (as of yet) and In The Congo who split the two was poor here latest but did have quite a tough run. Malkovich also not the worst outsider. The Inferno was also very good in this race last year and if the Tempo is hot and he can find luck, I would not be surprised if he wins.

Betting Strategy: Coolangatta 0.5 units win.


Race 8 - G2 Stocks Stakes 1600m Mares SW+P

Kissonallfourcheeks is a very deserving favourite but feel a tad short, especially at the Valley. Daisies was good first up and will be better over further, same goes for Foxy Frida. Elusive Express was not as good first up but had as good 3yo spring form as Daisies last year. These are the two horses I expect to show the most improvement, especially Daisies. Lady of Honour was incredibly close to Kissonallfourcheeks at latest but meets 0.5kgs worse.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Rosehill

Race 1 - C2 Highway 1500m Hcp

Mr Eighty Eight has only won the one start but has been running incredibly consistently. Leads here and if the rail is on like Rosehill sometimes is, he could prove hard to catch. Antonio Giovanni is ex-Waller and ran moderately this prep. Drops back from BM72 grade and steps up in trip, all big pluses. Besides her first start, Syrian Star has been running very well. Airliner has drawn wide and will get back but was not disgraced in class 3 grade last start.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 2 - BM72 Midway 1300m Hcp

Struggling to read this race as I normally do in highways. Verbek has been running very consistently at midway level and could be ready for a breakthrough here. Concocted has been another very consistent type. Oakfield Arrow is shooting for 5 in a row and would not surprise me if he wins. Kote smashed his maiden but think he was aided by the heavy.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 3 - BM88 1800m Hcp

Wicklow seems to win every other start which is what he gets here. Has been running well this prep bar 1st up. JMac hopefully settles handy from that barrier though. Hameron was very good last start in a strong BM78 field (to the eye). Likely goes back and should come home hard. Alcyone actually beat home Wicklow but personally believe he is less brilliant. Kiss the Bride won said race but meets Alcyone 2kgs worse with the claim.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 4 - G3 Colin Stephan Qlty 2400m Hcp

Cadre Du Noir was dominant last start. Was aided by the track but clearly has ability and very much the one to beat and drawn well here. Mohican Heights is awfully consistent and will figure in the finish but not sure he knows how to win. Grove Ferry has also been very consistent behind reasonable types.

Betting Strategy: Cadre Du Noir 1 Unit Win


Race 5 - BM88 1400m Hcp

Another tough race to assess. Finepoint on top with the low weight as she has had a very consistent start to her career and can win again. Narrated draws well, carries 52kgs with claim and been consistent. Ita another light weight consistent type. Diamil carries a stack of weight but easy to see why.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 6 - LR Heritage Stakes 1100m SW+P

Best of Bordeaux was far better second up showing more speed as they actually let him lead however, is far from unbeatable here. Semillion was far improved second up and was only 3L off Rothfire, which could very well be the right form. Have these two as my clear top. Opal Ridge won a highway by the nearest of margins but has form around Zougotcha and In Secret which seems to be the 3yo form but I think 3L off Rothfire is still better form.

Betting Strategy: Best of Bordeaux, Semillion Quinella 0.5 units.


Race 7 - G2 Golden Pendant 1400m Mares SW+P

Willing to forgive Espiona first up. She clearly has more ability then that. Was only 2L off a very good sprinter at a distance below her best. Nimalee probably the best horse here, was good first up but 3kgs more and probably wants 1600m but was just awesome behind two very handy horses. Startantes as good as Espiona IMO but carries 3kgs more due to being a G1 winner. Jamaea has been running very well but I would've thought 1100-1200m is her deal.

Betting Strategy: Espiona, Nimalee, Startantes Boxed Tri 0.25 units.


Race 8 - G1 Golden Rose 1400m 3yo SW

A filly will be winning this race this season. While everyone is talking about In Secret and rightfully so off her win last start and form being franked last week, I am very much on the Fireburn train. She had the best 2yo season I have seen and reaches her best at 1400m. Portelli was not confident in her last start saying she was not fit enough and she matched motors with In Secret, just started further back. She should be far improved here but would want it wet. She's Extreme was really good against the bias last start and should figure in this again. Golden Mile the best of the boys as a dominant last start winner. Plenty of others that can figure here such as Paris Dior, Sejarden, Jacquinot, Fast Witness, Millane, Daumier, Political Debate and Sebonack.

Betting Strategy: Fireburn 0.5 units (1 unit if it gets into heavy which is unlikely but 0 units if the track is playing with a bias.)


Race 9 - G2 Shannon Stakes 1500m Hcp

Ellsberg jumps from barrier 1 and is the likely leader and will be very tough to run down second up. Old Flame was good first up but jumps in class here. Atishu was solid first up and should be better here. Pinarello won a Qld Derby that seems to have decent form since, but is likely better over further.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 10 - BM78 1100m Hcp

A hot field for a Benchmark 78. Fire has been running very well and I would say unlucky not to win last two. Chain of Lightning form reads very well. Barrier again suggests he will get back though. A Very Fine Red's form reads well around Mazu and Zapateo. Draws barrier 1 and should sit handy. Tristate keeps running well and drops back in grade here with a claim and can win. Starman was very good first up and Ebhaar cannot be ignored.

Betting Strategy: Fire 1 unit win (unless there is bias)


Mornington

Race 7 - LR Ansett Classic 2400m Hcp

The only write up for Mornington. In my opinion a clear top 3 but the market has them the wrong way round. King Of The Castle was strong behind High Emocean first up while not receiving the easiest run. Can expect improvement here. Saracen Knight has been running super consistently but a tad short here, considering how the Through Irish Eyes/Horrifying form did not stack up in the King of the Castle race. Impulsar has been running very well and can forgive last start but the form is the worst of al three. The Good Fight is an underrated galloper and would not surprise me to see him do well.

Betting Strategy: King of the Castle 0.5 units


Sandown

Race 1 - BM70 1400m Mares Hcp

Tough race. Picarones has been running very well at a similar grade. Blake Shinn has been riding well lately and Eventually has been very consistent. Saviona beat Picarones but meets her 2.5kgs worse. Versilia has been running very well but jumps in class.

Betting Strategy: No bet


Race 2 - BM78 1400m Hcp

Chartres has been running in better races and been running well in them. 4L off Scallopini is handy. Field of Roses has been running well against some solid types and ready to win here. Pascero has good form but after being unlucky first up, leaves a little to be desired. Sandy Prince solid in latest and step up should help him.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 3 - BM78 1800m Hcp

Global Gift has been very consistent and is due for a win. Actually meets Pounding worse at the weights here but had a claimer at latest whereas Pounding now has the claimer. Yukon and Fifth Position are interesting place chances. Both won 3 starts ago and been moderate since so would not surprise me to see them bob up. Defiant Diva also been very consistent.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 4 - Open 1400m 3yoC&G SW+P

Wish Foujita San or Sebonack accepted here. Even Muramusa. Counttheheadlights has been in the best grade but was only 8L off Fireburn and 2L off Daumier which could be good enough form for this. Seems a silly price. Eliptical was not far off Berkeley Square which could be good enough form for this. The Fortune Teller was dominant on debut in the country but not great in first metro run. Probably a similar standard field. Northern Beaches is Coolmore owned and also comes through the Berkeley Square race but did not look as good as Eliptical.

Betting Strategy: 0.5 Units Counttheheadlights Place


Race 5 - Open 1700m Hcp

Glad they accepted here with Glint of Hope. Was very solid first up behind I would say better horses and gets to a preferable trip second up. Bermadez disappointing first up but horse is simply inconsistent. Can bounce back. Adelaide Ace has been very consistent and was good behind Emissary 2 back. Buckhurst probably the best horse here but who knows if he is going well as Lloyd's never jump out publically. Would love Schabau or Johnny Get Angry to win, but would be surprised if either did.

Betting Strategy: 1 Unit Glint of Hope win


Race 6 - LR Jim Moloney Stakes 1400m 3yoF SW+P

If the rain stays away, Russian Conquest will be tough to beat. Not sure on the step up in trip but do not mind her. Revolutionary Miss was also far improved second up and will also want it dry. Typhoon Titmus was far improved at her second metro run. Big jump in trip though. Waltz On By had a decent win at BM64 grade which is realistically, not far off this level.

Betting Strategy: No bet but considered Russian Conquest, may change on the day.


Race 7 - G1 Underwood Stakes 1800m WFA

An English style group 1 here with a small field but a very high quality field which is typical of the Underwood but I would say this is deeper than previous years with past two having 2 strong gallopers (Zaaki/Probabeel & Russian Camelot/Arcadia Queen) with reasonable support. The pace should be moderate with Alligator Blood the likely leader and Zaaki to sit on the outside. Mr Brightside sits in behind them and Mo'Unga, Nonconformist & I'm Thunderstruck sit out the back. I'll be honest, the main three are almost impossible to split and the winner will be my Cox Plate favourite. I think I'm Thunderstruck was incredibly strong last week winning a race from a virtually unwinnable position. He has the most potential of the horses here but is he better than Zaaki. I will say yes. Mr Brightside just edges out Zaaki for second. His second up run was really strong and has the personal best map for the race IMO. Never gone to 1800m but 3 weeks off should have him right here. Zaaki the traditional best horse of this mob and easy to see why with a dominant win first up. 1800m is his pet trip but Alligator Blood should make things tougher. Mo'Unga is my fourth seed. Worked home well the latest and seems better suited to 1800m compared to Alligator Blood. Nonconformist can improve but the last of the 6.

Betting Strategy: No Bet but a fun watch


Race 8 - G3 Sandown Stakes 1500m Hcp

Dragon Leap is my top seed here. 55.5kgs for a 4th in a very strong G1 has him on top but was that run a flash in the pan. Pinstriped solid behind Scallopini but left a bit to be desired however, can improve here. Military Expert has came back very strongly this prep but meets his biggest test here. Age of Chivalry seems to be an each way chance. Trial work was excellent, as was his first up run. Gentleman Roy cannot be dismissed.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 9 - LR Testa Rossa Stakes 1300m Hcp

This race comes down to rain. Good 4, I am with Ayrton and back him. Kah is on him as opposed to I Wish I Win which I find very interesting but may have been a pre-arranged agreement. If not, it speaks volumes. Trial work has been fine but not exceptional. If it is Soft 6 or worse, I Wish I Win should win and win well. Had strong NZ form and was incredibly dominant first up. A clear top 2. Open Minded was spanked by I Wish I Win first up but meets him 4kgs better off but I still do not think that is enough to overturn the margin. Regardsmaree once upon a time was a very good galloper but found his level. Can run well here though (as this is that level).

Betting Strategy: Ayrton 0.5 units win (only on a good 4 or better otherwise no bet)


Tipping

Moonee Valley

R1: 11 Kaygeebee - 2 Shalaman - 1 El Padrino - 7 Three Rings

R2: 1 Ojai - 2 Queen The Ball - 3 Lady Laguna - 7 English Riviera

R3: 3 Clemenceau - 10 Extreme Flight - 5 Pioneer River - 8 Zethus

R4: 4 Tijuana - 3 Virtuous Circle - 1 Letsrollthedice - 7 Foujita San

R5: 8 Asfoora - 6 The Front Bar - 5 Galenus - 4 Yulong Command

R6: 6 Sound - 2 Grand Promenade - 3 Persan - 7 Makram

R7: 12 Coolangatta - 3 Rothfire - 4 Zoustyle - 9 Bella Nipotina (The Inferno very stiff)

R8: 9 Daisies - 1 Kissonallfourcheeks - 7 Elusive Express - 10 Lady of Honour


Rosehill

R1: 8 Mr Eighty Eight - 2 Antonio Giovanni - 19 Syrian Star - 4 Airliner

R2: 13 Verbek - 6 Concocted - 2 Oakfield Arrow - 15 Kote

R3: 6 Wicklow - 11 Hameron - 2 Alcyone - 1 Kiss The Bride

R4: 1 Cadre Du Noir - 4 Mohican Heights - 3 Grove Ferry - 5 Herman Hesse

R5: 16 Finepoint - 15 Narrated - 2 Puntara - 1 Diamil

R6: 1 Best of Bordeaux - 3 Semillion - 9 Opal Ridge - 2 Swiss Exile

R7: 8 Espiona - 1 Nimalee - 2 Startantes - 13 Katalin

R8: 14 Fireburn - 16 In Secret - 15 She's Extreme - 7 Golden Mile

R9: 2 Ellsberg - 11 Old Flame - 8 Atishu - 4 Pinarello

R10: 4 Fire - 3 A Very Fine Red - 1 Tristate - 5 Starman


Mornington

R1: 2 Wee Nessy - 4 Lovetta - 6 Fighting Sanami - 5 Flores Dreaming

R2: 4 Mrs Sippy - 2 Defiant Diva - 6 Missy Longport - 3 Divine Diosa

R3: 2 Holster - 8 Carbonetti - 5 Rising Light - 4 Nordic

R4: 1 Rock Artist - 6 Najem Suhail - 3 Direct - 8 Hydro Star

R5: 2 Seiners Express - 8 French Emperor - 6 Tobaysure - 5 Seb Song

R6: 3 La Rocque - 5 London Point - 7 Cheledon - 2 Apres La Mer

R7: 9 King of the Castle - 6 Saracen Knight - 8 Impulsar - 3 The Good Fight

R8: 6 He's Xceptional - 4 Invincible Jet - 1 It's Tornado Storm - 12 Darceandermill


Sandown

R1: 13 Picarones - 3 Eventually - 4 Saviona - 2 Versilia

R2: 12 Chartres - 14 Field of Roses - 13 Pascero - 15 Sandy Cloud

R3: 4 Global Gift - 5 Pounding - 3 Fifth Position - 8 Yukon

R4: 2 Counttheheadlights - 4 Eliptical - 11 The Fortune Teller - 6 Northern Beaches

R5: 5 Glint of Hope - 8 Bermadez - 14 Adelaide Ace - 11 Thought of That

R6: 2 Russian Conquest - 1 Revolutionary Miss - 8 Typhoon Titmus - 4 Waltz on By

R7: 2 I'm Thunderstruck - 4 Mr Brightside - 1 Zaaki - 5 Mo'Unga

R8: 5 Dragon Leap - 11 Pinstriped - 6 Age Of Chivalry - 9 Military Expert

R9: 1 Ayrton - 4 I Wish I Win (dependent on condition) - 6 Open Minded - 5 Regardsmaree


Betting Strategy:

Caul R2: 0.25 units win Ojai

Caul R4: 1 unit win Tijuana

Caul R6: 0.25 units win Sound

Caul R7: 0.25 units win Coolangatta

Rose R4: 1 unit win Cadre Du Noir

Rose R6: 0.5 units 1,3 Quinella

Rose R7: 0.25 units 1,2,8 Boxed Tri

Rose R8: 0.5 units win Fireburn (1 unit if heavy, 0 if obvious bias)

Rose R10: 1 unit win Fire (0 if obvious bias)

Morn R7: 0.5 units win King of the Castle

Sand R4: 0.5 units place Counttheheadlights

Sand R5: 1 unit win Glint of Hope

Sand R9: 0.5 units win Ayrton (needs to be good 4 or better)

7.5 units outlayed for a total of $150 at $20 units.

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