top of page
  • thecouchcritic1

The Weekend Preview 08/10/2022

The racing keeps getting better and better. 3 Group 1s at Caulfield and some very good racing a Randwick is making me excited as a racing fan however, not as a punting fan.


Caulfield

Race 1 - LR Debutant 2yo 1000m Stakes

Kings Gambit trialled well to my eye running down the leader and is from a strong 2yo stable. Deserving favourite. Shesallshenanigans trailled well and is second favourite for a reason. Heuristic did not trial well but maybe he just did not handle the straight and is from a leading 2yo stable. Princess Duhallow did her trial very easy.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 2 - LR Weekend Hussler 1400m Hcp

Purple Sector to me is very appealing at odds. Almost ran down Old Flame 1st up when carrying 2.5kgs more and then chased Top Ranked. Price on offer is ridiculous compared to Old Flame although he is a get back type which is a negative. Old Flame has drawn well to sit handy. Old Flame did beat home Ellsberg in the latest but carried 5kgs. Ellsberg is also far better on the heavy compared to a Good 4 so it was not the same horse that won the Epsom a week later. Regardsmaree was competitive first up behind some handy horses. Jimmy The Bear was impressive when he got to open company and will be competitive again.

Betting Strategy: Purple Sector 0.25 units win only if track gets into good 4 (unlikely)


Race 3 - LR Thoroughbred Club 1200m 3yoF Stakes

Troach is my equal first tip as her form is far better, chasing Queen of the Ball, beating Lady Laguna the start prior and form around handy colts in Spacewalk and Zoukerino. She has drawn very wide but does have time to find a spot before the bend. However, Nanagui looked very handy to the eye winning last start at Flemington last start and has drawn well to hopefully sit handy and go well again. Hard to split those two. English Riviera follows the Troach form and has been running well this prep. C'est Magnique must be considered if you like Nanagui.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 4: LR Neds Village Stakes 1200m Hcp

Am I crazy for thinking a non winner in Curran can win,? Maybe. Am I confident enough to back him in? No. He has been running well however and gets in with a low weight. Prince of Boom appreciates the sting out of the ground and was much improved second up. Frankie Pinot is an awfully consistent galloper but also is a run on type. Pintoff is probably happy the track is not heavier than soft 6. Personally, I think Zethus had a dream ride/run last start and will not find that from 14, a complete ignore. Track probably not wet enough for Gravina. Triple Missile is also right in the mix for mine.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 5: G2 Herbert Power 2400m Hcp

A tough race. If the track gets into good 4 maybe soft 5, I feel Grand Promenade is over the odds. His first up run was no good but his cup run last year was the third best of the race for mine (ignoring weights). How long can I preach that rhetoric though because at some point, he needs to be able to get back to his best. I expect to see an improved showing though. Saracen Knight has drawn well, cann hopefully sit behind Desert Icon and gets in light. Is he good enough though. My top tip but very reluctant. Regal Lion savaged the line last start but is he a 2400m horse, I do not know. Desert Icon has drawn well but had all the favours last start. Persan was good in the chase I thought. Sheraz was good first up but a little plain second up. Same can be said for Emissary. Makram had no chance against the bias and wide. The Good Fight would have liked more rain. Point Nepean has no reason to win and jeopardize a cup penalty but want to see a good run. A tough race to assess with little confidence from me.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 6: G2 Schillaci 1100m WFA Stakes

Good to see the sprint races in Melbourne being of high quality this spring. The bonus structure for the Manikato and Champions Sprint has certainly worked. Zoustyle for me is clearly who you want to be with, not Paulele. Chased Rothfire first up and had a real tough run the latest as wide at the Valley is always a worst lane, stuck on well for 3rd I thought. My only query is I do not know about 1100m as he is so effective at 1000m. Paulele is a quality galloper and should appreciate the extra 100m. The form around Queen Of The Ball has been good (will be tested earlier on the card) but this is a big jump in class. 51kgs helps but can she measure up? I have General Beau rated the same as Ingratiating so the price discrepancy is interesting. In The Boat probably wants the track to dry. Shelby seems to be no good but trainer is convinced it is lack of fitness.

Betting Strategy: Zoustyle 0.5 Units Win


Race 7: G1 Might & Power 2000m WFA Stakes

The Cox Plate before the Cox Plate. I think the track will be a moist 5 by this point. Tempo should be more genuine than latest with as there are more horses and surely they put some more pressure on based off the Underwood. Anamoe is my top seed but way too short for my liking as this is probably the best field he has faced. I'm Thunderstruck wants everybit of that soft 5 and ideally good 4 if possible. I do not subscribe to him not being able to see out 2000m. Zaaki also well suited to run it back and will run top 3. Alligator Blood will get another good run but I still have queries around the 2000m, particularly if the surface does not dry like expected. Mo'Unga a strong top 4 chance but all his best runs seem to come off a slow tempo suggesting to me he is a miler. Mr Brightside would want it wet to compete with these. Benaud has looked good this prep but probably a class below. Nonconformist should be improved here but not up to it.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 8 - G1 Caulfield Guineas 1600m 3yo SW

A race I find hard to read (Aft Cabin would have won this). Golden Mile is fav but I think he is a big lay. He has a sprinters breeding but does map well. I will look elsewhere. I believe he had every chance last start, just was not good enough. Berkely Square form is only mediocre, I will also be looking elsewhere. Tijuana won last start but they went kind of slow and was aided by the track. So as it stands, my 4 top picks will be outside 10 bucks, I have a feeling a roughie takes this one out, just depends which one. Wide may not be the worst place to be today (will know more as the day progresses) so the draw on Bank Maur may not be an issue, same goes for Amenable. Both have ran well at lesser grades and I see upside in both. Eliptical chased Bank Maur and looked good doing so. Foujita San sat wide against Tijuana and hit the line well but is soft 6 too wet? Meridius has beaten home Amenable twice but not as confident. Osipenko has form around Kibou and think we can forgive latest. Millane went well in the Golden Rose and is most certainly under the radar. Sir Bailey is the best chance from the Ciaron Maher stable. Personally, I see 11/16 runners being able to win this.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 9: G1 Toorak 1600m Hcp

I Wish I Win is a deserving favourite but at those odds, I could not possibly go there in a field with this many horses. As I said though, deserving favourite. Tuvalu and Gentleman Roy both map well if they can jump but will the inside be the place to be? I really like Converge if the track is dry. Still not more than I Wish I win as a top selection but if he is 30s and the track is good, I will have a dabble. I could see a bunch of others surprising here if they get the right run, those being Military Expert, Pinstriped, Uncle Bryn, Callsign Mav, Hilal, Buffalo River, Dalasan and Bankers Choice. The latter three are somewhat appealing at current odds. Dream scenario would be Dalasan winning, he deserves a group 1.

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units win Converge if the track is a good 4.


Race 10: LR Northwood Plume Stakes 1200m Mares SW+P

Zapateo should be favourite but again, at current odds, I do not know. running well but 3-4 would be more appropriate. This is due to the fact I really like Turaath. Good form follows this horse around. In the past 12 months, she beat Annavisto who is now G1 placed. Beat Mystic Journey and Still a Star. Then chased Halvorsen giving it 2kgs at WFA. Followed that up by chasing Marabi and was only 2L off Sierra Sue at WFA. 11 is overs. Zouzarella was improved second up here. Seradess has decent form and maybe she lacked fitness first up.

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units win Turaath


Randwick

Race 2 - Midway 1200m BM72 Hcp

Skipping the highway, Kote should be hard to beat, was very unlucky at latest. Do not like punting on heavy 10s though and is 1.75 now. So Good So COol, Holy Tycoon and Mayrose round out my other selections. Betting Strategy: No bet but Kote should be hard to beat if he repeats his latest run.


Race 4 - G2 Roman Consul Stakes 1200m 3yo

Best of Bordeaux gets a wet track which he enjoys. Drawn well and should lead and win. Sejarden likes it wet. Nettuno as well. Sweet ride 4th in line here. Does 4L of Zougotcha prove to be enough for Willinga Beast.

Betting Strategy: Best of Bordeaux 1 unit win


Race 10 - G3 Angst Stakes 1600m Mares SW+P

Polly Grey seems an unreal bet. Loves it sloppy and should win. Atishu biggest chance but prefers it dry. WHo knows if they re even racing by this point. Honeycreeper and Hope In Your Heart outside chances.

Betting Strategy: Polly Grey 1.5 Units Win


Tipping

Caulfield

R1: 3 King's Gambit - 7 Shesallshenanigans - 2 Heuristic - 5 Princess Duhallow

R2: 4 Purple Sector - 2 Old Flame - 5 Regardsmaree - 7 Jimmy The Bear

R3: 2 Troach - 3 Nanagui - 5 English Riviera - 12 C'est Magique

R4: 12 Curran - 3 Prince of Boom - 10 Pintoff - 4 Triple Missile

R5: 12 Saracen Knight - 4 Desert Icon - 9 Regal Lion - 1 Grand Promenade

R6: 4 Zoustyle - 1 Paulele - 5 General Beau - 2 Ingratiating

R7: 7 Anamoe - 1 Zaaki - 2 I'm Thunderstruck - 3 Alligator Blood

R8: 5 Bank Maur - 10 Amenable - 6 Foujita San - 4 Millane

R9: 5 I Wish I Win - 2 Converge - 8 Tuvalu - 9 Gentleman Roy R10: 3 Zapateo - 1 Turaath - 6 Zouzarella - 2 Seradess


Randwick

R1: 7 King of SPades - 13 Almahero - 10 Zoffany's Gaze - 2 Jalmari

R2: 12 Kote - 4 So Good So Cool - 6 Holy Tycoon - 1 Mayrose

R3: 9 Pink Ivory - 10 King Frankel - 8 Mamounia - 11 Najavo Peak

R4: 1 Best of Bordeaux - 2 Sejarden - 4 Nettuno - 3 Sweet Ride

R5: 3 Heresy - 1 Promise of Success - 9 Larkspur Run - Sky Command

R6: 11 Opal Ridge - 12 Dashing Legend - 3 Ringmaster - 4 Burgunder

R7: 3 Williamsburg - 5 Sharp N Smart - 11 Bunker Hut - 6 Matcha Latte

R8: 2 Mr Mozart - 12 Waterford - 8 Brigantine - 3 Startantes

R9: 1 Polly Grey - 2 Atishu - 4 Honeycreeper - 3 Hope In Your Heart R10:

Recent Posts

See All

The Weekend Preview - 05/11/2022

Welcome to the preview for Champions Day which is shaping up in its first rendition to be the most exciting day on the racing calendar. Three excellent G1s on display with good supporting roles. I wil

The 2022 Melbourne Cup Preview

Welcome to the Preview of the best race from a viewing, history, intrigue perspective this country and honestly, the world has in the Melbourne Cup. I will be writing up every runner (some more than m

Cup Day Preview - 01/11/22

Welcome to the Cup Day preview, the best race day on the Australian calendar in the best carnival in the world. Not from a quality perspective, but a 3200m G1 Hcp with 24 runners is beyond a fascinati

Comentários


bottom of page