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The Weekend Preview 10/09/22

Welcome to the Weekend Preview for G1 Makybe Diva Stakes day. There are some hot fields here but I am personally finding it a hard card tor read so there will be smaller stakes today.


Flemington

Race 1 - LR Posiedon Stakes 1100m 3yoC&G

A clear top 2 here. Alpha One seems to have a lot of good form resulting from the ones that have finished behind him and goes on top here. Doull could not have been more impressive on debut and must be respected. Buenos Noches was sent down by Matthew Smith and for a smaller trainer, he must believe he is a genuine chance. Brereton was good in the Queensland winner. I cannot get around Spacewalk here. Has ability but for a horse that struggles to run straight on a track with a bend, I think he will get very lost on a track with an 1100m straight. Betting Strategy: Alpha One 1 unit win


Race 2 - Open 1700m Hcp

Sir Davy is my top seed here. Has strong form around a potential G1 winner in waiting in Tuvalu. Hezashocka has been running well, resumes here. Young Werther is carrying weight but he has some ability and I think 1600-2400m is his go. Lyrical Lad has been running well.

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Race 3 - LR Cap D'Antibes Stakes 1100m 3yoF

Get In The Spirit was dominant in her first career start but who knows how strong that early 2yo form is as Lascars has not been good since. At 15 though, I am willing to take a chance. Ojai has the best form in this race and returned well. Ghaanati has ability and if she replicates her first start, will be a chance. See You In Heaven was one of the best 2yos in SA last season. A lot of others I did not mention that have a chance in this.

Betting Strategy: Get In The Spirit 0.25 units win


Race 4 - LR Sofitel 1400m Hcp

Pinstriped is a horse with serious ability but first up barrier 16 means he must get back or sit wide. Bermadez is also another good chance and loves it first up. Lightsaber pushed Hitotsu back in the Australian Guineas and should be respected. Scallopini has had a reasonable start to his prep in Victoria.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 5 - G1 Makybe Diva Stakes 1600m WFA

This race only appears to have one horse that naturally goes forward. I'm Thunderstruck is a deserving favourite. Is the best horse in the race and ideally, settles behind Alligator Blood who maps to get a very easy lead and likely a slow tempo. The rest of the field I do not know. Cascadian, Western Empire, Mo'Unga, Regal Power and even Nonconformist are all place chances and will be running home well. Of the bunch, Mo'Unga and Cascadian are my two favourites but they are a good bunch. Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 6 - Open 2500m Hcp

This race has three full brothers in it. Not sure something like this has every happened anywhere in the world in the history of racing. Very open field. Point Nepean gets in well but with bigger fish to fry and being first up, I do not think he wins this. Drawn well though and is aided by no others standing out. Vow and Declare was excellent first up and would need to win (maybe place, not sure how it works) to qualify for the ballot but with the big weight and only being second up, I think he may be another start away, same goes for Serpentine. I would have been all over Interpretation if he didn't draw the grandstand into the hairpin bend but he ran very well first up and won a reasonable 3yo race overseas in the Vinnie Roe Stakes. Horrifying is probably even more disadvantaged from the draw and every chance he hits the first bend 3 to 4 wide. Mimi's Award might get swallowed up from her barrier draw. Kingofthecastle is verry interesting. 5L off Sonnyboyliston and 4L off Twilight Payment in the same race is very very very good form but, has drawn wide and has not had a run in a year. This race is basically Point Nepean mapping well, everything else having issues but me not liking Point Nepean because he has bigger targets in mind. I really do not know what to do.

Betting Strategy: No bet


Race 7 - G2 Lets Elope Stakes 1400m Mares

Flying Mascot was not far off them last start, does not mind the wet and should roll forward here. Personally, I'd swap the odds for her and Kissonallfourcheeks. They are the top two though. I Am Bene was very good last start but meets a far better field here, as does Lady of Honour.

Betting Strategy: 5,6 0.5 unit quinella


Race 8 - G2 Bobbie Lewis 1200m Hcp

A very strong race here and a lot of horses that like the straight. Swats That is my top seed having transferred to the Ciaron Maher stable. The Astrologist is only carrying 57kgs here which seems kind of low and with how much he loves the straight, could be a bet. Roch N Horse was good first up, will appreciate the extra 200m and the straight. Shooting For Gold has been running very well and deserves to be respected. Stageman and Zoutori are two others I do not mind.

Betting Strategy: 4,7,12 0.5 unit quinella.



Race 9 - LR Exford Plate 1400m 3yo

The wet track in this race changes my plans. Berkeley Square is now my top tip as he seems to handle the wet well and Castillian winning last week franks the form. Fast Witness also loves the wet and the horse he beat won last week. Tijuana and Foujita San have queries on the wet. Cadazio was good last start but I think the field was week and he may already want further. Could be a poor assessment though.

Betting Strategy: No Bet



Rosehill

Race 1 - Highway C3 1400m Hcp

After my success in a highway last week, I will be keeping it 1/1 from my bets but Zaru does seem appealing to me if anyone chooses to head that way. Jalmarri, Danzadel and Baledon would be my next tips.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 2 - Midway 1200m Hcp

Daralina Belle did not come away with the chocolates in Qld but still my top seed. Bartoselli, Kipsbay and Concocted next tips.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 3 - BM78 2400m Hcp

A race of 2 IMO with some outside chances. Impulsar defeated Monfelicity last start but meets her 2kgs worse off here which in my opinion, should be enough for Monfelicity to overturn the margin but Impulsar may be on an upward spiral. Saracen Knight also must be considered having decent form in Vic staying races at this grade which in my opinion is the better staying scene which has been proven with results so far this season. First Light and Oz Legend are both chances. Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 4 - BM78 1800m Hcp

Hameron has been dominant in lower grades but meets by far his biggest test. Should win but about a dollar to skinny for my liking. Price does not send horses to Sydney for the sake of it and Fifth Positions win two back was very very good. Kalino has been very solid and Pink Ivory will benefit from the step up in trip and being second up.

Betting Strategy: Fifth Position 0.25 Units Win


Race 5 - BM88 1100m Hcp

A tough race to assess but a clear top 4 IMO. Tristate was very good last start behind Shades of Rose and Maotoi which appears to be good form. Remarque has shown serious ability in the past but, he is a notoriously good trialler so would not be looking into that. Clemenceau has Pike on board so that probably suggests the stable think he is the number one chance. Bacchanalia has form around Mazu. Heresy and Shaquero outside chances.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 6 - G3 Ming Dynasty 1400m 3yo

Golden Mile was strong behind Kibou last start and deserves to be favourite. Zou Tiger was very dominant in winning a maiden. Conqueror was not terrible behind Arnaqueur but not great here. Willing to give another chance. Basquiat was 3rd behind Kibou but by some distance.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 7 - G2 Run To The Rose 1200m 3yo

A tough race to assess. I am confident Fireburn is the best horse but trainer comments make me think she needs the run, plus would want some sting out. Nettuno was very nice last start and a bit unlucky on the straight. D Day for Best of Bordeaux here. JMac needs to not restrain him here and just let him roll forward. In Secret is running well but will find it harder against the boys. Sejarden I did not rate highly as a 2yo but is trialling well and may have came back even better.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 8 - G2 Theo Marks Stakes 1300m Hcp

A bit of speed in this race. Jamaea was big last start and potentially would've won if she had more luck in running. Prime Candidate gets in with the light weight and if he jumps well, may be hard to run down, especially if the track is biased. Ellsberg is a very solid horse and will be contesting that lead, not like he hates it dry but might want it a little bit wetter. Mr Mozart was solid to end last prep.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 9 - G2 Sheraco Stakes 1200m F&M

I do not care that JMac jumped off Shades of Rose, she is airborne at the moment although, Rachel King from a wide barrier is often not a good sign. Startantes is likely the most credentialled horse in this field and is just very underrated I feel like. Some good odds on offer here. Espiona probably has the most potential but probably wants 1400-1600m. It's Me was solid enough in Queensland last start.

Betting Strategy: Startantes 0.25 Units Win


Race 10 - BM78 1500m Hcp

Waterford has had a very strong start to his career since arriving in Australia and I see no reason to suggest he cannot win again today. Mana Nui was racing in a higher grade. Canasta flopped last start but should lead again and Yukon was only moderate 2nd up but willing to forgive.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


However, my best bet is running tonight in race 4 at Leopardstown tonight. Point King appears to show a lot of promise as a light weight Melbourne Cup chance. I do not race this years Ebor form so I am happy to go against Earl of Tyrone.

Betting Strategy: Point King 1 unit win.


Tipping

Flemington

R1: 4 Alpha One - 6 Doull - 12 Buenos Noches - 1 Brereton

R2: 10 Sir Davy - 12 Hezashocka - 2 Young Werther - 13 Lyrical Lad

R3: 5 Get In The Spirit - 6 Ojai - 7 Ghaanati - 2 See You In Heaven

R4: 10 Pinstriped - 8 Bermadez - 1 Lightsaber - 3 Scallopini

R5: 1 I'm Thunderstruck - 4 Alligator Blood - 5 Mo'Unga - 2 Cascadian

R6: 4 Interpretation - 3 Point Nepean - 13 King of the Castle - 2 Vow & Declare

R7: 6 Flying Mascot - 5 Kissonallfourcheeks - 14 I Am Bene - 11 Lady of Honour

R8: 12 Swats That - 7 The Astrologist - 4 Roch N Horse - 13 Shooting For Gold

R9: 6 Berkeley Square - 4 Fast Witness - 3 Tijuana - 11 Foujita San


Rosehill

R1: 2 Zaru - 10 Danzadel - 1 Jalmari - 4 Baledon

R2: 3 Daralina Belle - 6 Bartoselli - 8 Kipsbay - 7 Concocted

R3: 10 Monfelicity - 3 Impulsar - 1 Saracen Knight - 9 Oz Legend

R4: 5 Hameron - 3 Fifth Position - 7 Kalino - 12 Pink Ivory

R5: 8 Tristate - 2 Remarque - 6 Clemenceau - 5 Bacchanalia

R6: 5 Golden Mile - 11 Zou Tiger - 12 Conqueror - 4 Basquiat

R7: 5 Nettuno - 1 Best of Bordeaux - 11 In Secret - 2 Sejarden

R8: 10 Jamaea - 12 Prime Candidate - 3 Ellsberg - 4 Mr Mozart

R9: 10 Shades of Rose - 1 Startantes - 6 Espiona - 9 It's Me

R10: 16 Waterford - 2 Mana Nui - 6 Canasta - 9 Yukon


Betting Strategy:

Flem R1: Alpha One 1 unit win

Flem R3: Get In The Spirit 0.25 units win

Flem R7: 5,6 0.5 units quinella

Flem R8: 4,7,12 0.5 units quinella

Rose R4: Fifth Position 0.25 units win

Rose R9: Startantes 0.25 units win

Leop R4: Point King 1 unit win

Using $20 units, that is 3.75 units outlayed for a total of $75.


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