top of page
  • thecouchcritic1

The Weekend Preview - 15/10/2022

Welcome to the weekend preview for the biggest day of racing in the world. Before we get into it though, I will provide a quick run down of the Wednesday meet.


Review

I did not expect the rain to come and punted poorly. Can JMac lose a G1 at the moment. Think that was his 5th for the season and he has only entered 9 I believe. Proved that saving ground is often better than finding the best ground. Gunstock proved me very wrong and looked very good winning the Coongy. Seems to be on a serious upward trajectory and a chance in next years cups. Yonkers was consistent as usual. Grand Impact looked handy winning the Blue Sapphire and Lofty Strike returned very well I thought. Sirileo Miss was my top roughie but I had nothing on her. She mapped well and did the rest. Daisies and Elusive Express poor but probably want it drier. Williamsburg almost got there up in Sydney and would have preferred that race be 1800m. Sharp n Smart was just a bit too similar to his name unfortunately.


Betting Strategy

Caul R7: Lofty Strike 0.25 Units Win (3rd)

WF R8: Williamsburg 0.5 Units Win (3rd)

So 0.75 units outlaid in total. $15 staked for $0 return.


Weekly Outlay: $15

Weekly Return: $0

Weekly Profit/Loss: -$15


Seasonal Outlay: $1,100

Seasonal Return: $1,071.5

Seasonal Profit/Loss: -$28.5

Seasonal ROI%: -2.6%


Tipping

Caulfield: 1/9 (25/115)

Randwick: 0/1 (22/97)


Caulfield

Race 1 - 3yo 1400m 3yoF

Quang Tri winter form has held up pretty well with his Sykphios loss looking not so bad. He should win here. Desiah looked alright first up but flopped in a stronger grade. Lady Jones could improve here and is my second selection. Just quietly, surely you can put a better race on the card than this. There is already a listed 3yo race over the same trip. Get it is the boys and girls but I would combine it.

Betting: No Bet


Race 2 - BM80 1700m Hcp

Cap De Joie should win here but not confident at those odds. Right You Are was once a very progressive horse and looked good first up after a 14 month lay off. Should improve and is enticing at odds. Deepstrike looked sensational first up but flopped second up, can forgive. The Talking Toff loves a wet surface and is overs at 40s.

Betting: No Bet


Race 3 - G3 Caulfield Classic 2000m 3yo

Mr Maestro is well bred for this trip and has looked good in the lead ups however like the above, I cannot have a slice at those odds. Muramusa was not disgraced in G2 company. Red Sun Sensation has been super consistent. Distressful Award is my distant 4th here.

Betting: No Bet


Race 4 - G3 Ethereal Stakes 2000m 3yoF

The toughest race to assess on the card. I trust Waller bringing his horses down as he seems to do it at the right time so Cabaca is my tip. Letsbefrankbaby should lead here and will have every chance. Pavrita was not disgraced against far better types. Moko also dropping back in field quality.

Betting: No Bet


Race 5 - LR Gothic Stakes 1400m 3yo

Actually, this may be the hardest on the card. Angry Skies top, Eponymous second, Sandpaper 3rd and He'll Rip 4th who I think presents value.

Betting: No Bet


Race 6 - LR Alinghi Stakes 1100m F&M

Mileva has been racing against far better horses to this and performing admirably but top weight here. A Very Fine Red has been running well in Sydney benchmark grade which is likely a similar standard to this so has to be respected. Melba Storm form aged well with The Garden and won her 2nd up run. Kalkarni Royale also appears to be dropping in grade, at least in quality of field.

Betting: No Bet


Race 7 - G2 Caulfield Sprint 1000m Hcp

First leg of the quaddie and a clear top 3, all with different reasons as to why they can and cannot win. Dragonstone will enjoy the heavy 8 and has form around Mazu, Andermatt, Passive Aggressive and defeated Prime Candidate. Generation best horse here but is carrying 5kgs more. Asfoora was beyond unlucky last start and should have won with a leg in the air. Is clearly progressive but is she progressive enough. The Alinghi Stakes may have been a better option. Kallos got a win last start and at his best, is good enough to compete. Weak open G2.

Betting: Dragonstone 1 unit win

Race 8 - G2 Tristarc Stakes 1400m Mares

Another tough race in a tough card. Have Pride of Jenni, Chain of Lighting, Palaisipan and Kissonallfourcheeks to a similar level. Flying Mascot, Argentia, Mirra Vision and Fortunate Kiss all are just a step below can win. Very open.

Betting: No Bet


Race 9 - G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m Hcp

See race write-up.

Betting: No Bet


Race 10 - G3 Moonga Stakes 1400m SW+P

Catalyst looked very improved at latest. As I am writing this delayed, would want the track to be soft 6 or better. If it remains heavy, Bandersnatch is a good bet. Is fine on better surfaces but really seems to enjoy the slop. Aegon is another that loves it heavy and must be respected. Sinawanns 7th against Gentleman Roy and Military Expert reads better now that he had to give them 5kgs. Still needs to improve though.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Randwick

Race 1 - LR Reginald Allen 1400m 3yoF

Do not know any of these horses so I will do my best. A Lot More Love on top, Parsial 2nd, Orzala 3rd and Wild Botanica 4th.

Betting: No Bet


Race 2 - Big Dance Preview 1600m Hcp

The Big Dance preview or as what I am calling it, the ticket to lose to Hosier preview. Two big Fari has been running well without luck. Gets in light here and every chance. I was once high on Wicklow but now I am not so sure. The horse likes to tease the punter showing ability in its wins but never much else. Prince of Helena has drawn well and is a chance. Kirwans Lane gets the claim from Gibbons who rides like a top 15 Sydney Jockey already.

Betting: No Bet


Race 3 - G3 Craven Plate 1800m WFA

Cascadian should win but would have to be a brave man to take 1.70 although, he is clearly the best horse and is a far more consistent galloper nowadays. Maybe 1.70 is overs. Just Folk is the best chance to beat him. Soft 7 is perfect and seems to be getting to his best now. I guess Surf Dancer is the next best. Hezashocka was faultless up until last start.

Betting: No Bet


Race 4 - Sydney St Leger Stakes 2600m SW+P

Stockman to me is the clear best chance here. All runs this prep has been running well and giving weight to rivals (most of the time). 4th up, soft 7, barrier 4 and 2600m are all ticks. I do not rate the Cadre Du Noir form overly high with Arapaho flopping all latest and Realm of Flowers not being fully wound up. Was exposed by Grove Ferry who is not overly good but still has to be respected. Sacramento was much improved latest. Carif is every bit a two miler and extra 200m helps. Betting: Stockman 1 unit win


Race 5 - The Kosciuszko 1200m SW+P

My personal favourite pop up race Sydney has ever done and it looks to be another strong rendition. Anethole is the on top for me here. Was solid first up and savaged the line in the shorts which is a far better field compared to here. Handle The Truth was very good in the Concorde but slightly worse in the shorts and is asked to carry more weight. Art Cadeau won this race 1st up last year and could again. Talbragar is a rising 5yo who could very well be good enough to win. Front Page is also not without a shout. Far Too Easy seems far too easy of a lay.

Betting Strategy: Anethole 0.25 units win


Race 6 - G3 Sydney Stakes 1200m WFA

Kementari was a very confident bet for mine before he got the call up. In The Congo now becomes my top seed but less confident. Has a stack of ability and was caught 3 wide on speed at the latest. A spot you never want to be. Wide barrier here does not help but JMac on does. 2-5 I have on a similar level which is not far off the fav. Those are Remarque, Apache Chase, Forbidden Love and Swats That. Even Waihaha Falls could be considered. Shelby gets it wetter but the horse is likely no good.

Betting: No Bet but did strongly consider In The Congo


Race 7 - The Everest 1200m WFA

See race write up

Betting: No Bet

Race 8 - The Silver Eagle 1300m 4yo

Mr Mozart is the one to beat here and the market seems to have corrected the difference between him and Waterford. Close to his pet trip, surface is no issue was very nice first up. Kiss Sum is one I have had my eye on for a bit. Feel he is progressive and his last win was his best. Likely not wound up for this but an outside chance in the Golden Eagle. Startantes at her best can win this but last start left a lot on the table. 3 weeks off hopefully gets her back to her best. Brigantine looked good latest but 17 is not a great draw. Shout outs to Waterford, Vilana, Lavish Girl, Loch Eagle and Ranch Hand who can all win.

Betting: Mr Mozart 1 unit win


Race 9 - Five Diamonds Preview 1500m 5yo

To me, Ellsberg is close to a certainty. Ayrton could beat him on dry but not a soft 7. If he runs to his Epsom rating, he wins and wins well. Is carrying weight but 3kgs should not be enough to stop him. Our Playboy does like it wet but is not up to this. Ayrton at his best is but doubt he can find it on a 7. Is untried on soft essentially as he was lame on only go at a heavy. Lord Ardmore is consistent and I like this drop back in trip.

Betting: Ellsberg 1 units win


Race 10 - G3 Angst Stakes 1600m Mares

Polly Grey is a clear on top for mine but I would need the track to remain at soft 7 to back her. She is only carrying 2.5 more than equal fav Finepoint but if this was a handicap, that figure would be 10kgs or so. Grace and Harmony is my second selection, been running well at benchmark grade which I rate similar to this. Honeycreeper is my 3rd with Finepoint as my 4th.

Betting: Polly Grey 0.5 units win if soft 7 or worse, 0.25 units win if soft 6. No bet if not.


Betting Strategy

Caul R7 - Dragonstone 1 Unit Win

Rand R4 - Stockman 1 Unit Win

Rand R5 - Anethole 0.25 Units Win

Rand R8 - Mr Mozart 1 Unit Win

Rand R9 - Ellsberg 1 Units win

Rand R10 - Polly Grey 0.5 Units Win (subject to conditions)

That is 4.75 outlaid at max and 4.25 outlaid at minimum.


Tipping

Caulfield

R1: 1 Quang Tri - 9 Lady Jones - 5 Desiah - 2 Berry Bubbly

R2: 11 Cap De Joie - 3 Right You Are - 1 Deepstrike - 15 The Talking Toff

R3: 1 Mr Maestro - 5 Muramusa - 2 Red Sun Sensation - 6 Distrustful Award

R4: 6 Cabaca - 9 Letsbefrankbaby - 3 Pavrita - 1 Moko

R5: 12 Angry Skies - 8 Eponymous - 6 Sandpaper - 14 He'll Rip

R6: 1 Mileva - 7 Melba Storm - 11 A Very Fine Red - 10 Kalkarni Royale

R7: 9 Dragonstone - 2 Generation - 11 Asfoora - 7 Kallos

R8: 4 Palaisipan - 9 Chain Of Lighting - 13 Pride of Jenni - 1 Kissonallfourcheeks

R9: 17 Smokin Romans - 8 No Compromise - 11 Great House - 3 Knights Order

R10: 13 Catalyst - 5 Bandersnatch - 11 Aegon - 4 Sinawann


Randwick

R1: 5 A Lot More Love - 10 Parisal - 9 Orzala - 2 Wild Botanica

R2: 13 Two Big Fari - 9 Wicklow - 11 Prince of Helena - 1 Kirwan's Lane

R3: 1 Cascadian - 2 Just Folk - 3 Surf Dancer - 9 Pinarello

R4: 2 Stockman - 6 Cadre Du Noir - 5 Sacramento - 7 Carif

R5: 10 Anethole - 2 Handle The Truth - 1 Art Cadeau - 13 Talbragar

R6: 4 In The Congo - 1 Apache Chase - 18 Swats That - 20 Waihaha Falls

R7: 1 Nature Strip - 4 Masked Crusader - 11 Jacquinot - 2 Eduardo

R8: 1 Mr Mozart - 2 Startanes - 4 Kiss Sum - 7 Brigantine

R9: 1 Ellsberg - 2 Ayrton - 5 Lord Ardmore - 3 Our Playboy

R10: 1 Polly Grey - 6 Grace & Harmony - 3 Honeycreeper - 8 Finepoint

1 view0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

The Weekend Preview - 05/11/2022

Welcome to the preview for Champions Day which is shaping up in its first rendition to be the most exciting day on the racing calendar. Three excellent G1s on display with good supporting roles. I wil

The 2022 Melbourne Cup Preview

Welcome to the Preview of the best race from a viewing, history, intrigue perspective this country and honestly, the world has in the Melbourne Cup. I will be writing up every runner (some more than m

Cup Day Preview - 01/11/22

Welcome to the Cup Day preview, the best race day on the Australian calendar in the best carnival in the world. Not from a quality perspective, but a 3200m G1 Hcp with 24 runners is beyond a fascinati

Comments


bottom of page