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The Weekend Preview - 22/10/2022

Updated: Oct 29, 2022

Welcome to the weekend preview for Cox Plate weekend where we have three meetings to cover with the Valley on the Friday, Saturday and Randwick. It actually looks a very handy top set of horses in the Cox Plate and a good supporting cast around the nation with one group 1 at each meet. As I am writing this on the Thursday night, I am predicting the Valley rail to be on as usual but how much rain comes is the worry. First post will be Thursday, and then a re-upload Saturday Morning.


Moonee Valley - Friday Night

Race 1 - Open 2040m Mares

A weird race to assess. Silent Sovereign is a weighted certainty based off rating but looked awfully plain first up. However, it was an unsuitable trip and should be fitter for it. No opinion on a heavy. Ocean Miss is the likely leader and will be suited if there is bias which I would say is probable. Seems to not mind the wet. Hunboshi is ridden by the most in-form jockey in the land which is a plus. Shezadandi also likely rolls forward and does not seem to mind the wet.

Betting Strategy: Watch and see how the track is playing.


Race 2 - Open 1500m

Winning Partner has been pretty luckless three of the four runs this prep. Got too far back but savaged the line first up, sat wide the whole trip in the Balaklava Cup and last start had little luck from the barrier. Only problems are that he is a dry tracker and the track may be leaderish. Would have been a bet under the right circumstance but think he has too much against him here. So Si Bon has drawn well and surface is not an issue and is the best horse in this field. Granslam will likely lean and has brained them once here before. Eluding has been eluded by the winning post this prep. Not well weighted here. Regardsmaree does not mind the wet and will settle just off the lead.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 3 - BM80 1200m Hcp

Stylish Enuff is the likely leader here with Meech on and barrier 2. Likes the heavy and beat Vultan last start on it by 1.8L but meets him 2kgs worse here which neutralises that to some extent. Rattle and Bang likes to lead, draws very well and likes the wet. A lot to like. Vultan also likes it wet and carries it light here but will be a bit further back. Diesel n Dust is a handy synthetic horse.

Betting Strategy: Think one of my top 2 take it out, just not sure which one.

Race 4 - 3yo 1000m Hcp

Shame Great Barrier Reef was scratched, was an odds boost for the field. Field of Flutes is my top bet here having drawn to lead and spanked them at maiden grade last start which should be enough to win here. Miss Roseiano has form around better horses and has improved in each start this prep. Zourata also looked handy at maiden grade, leads and has Shinn on. Shalaman carries 63kgs and actually may have the best form and enjoys the wet but has too much weight to consider.

Betting Strategy: Field of Flutes 0.5 units win


Race 5 - BM78 955m Hcp

The 55 second challenge. Not often Gerald Ryan brings his horses down and I have to take notice, Nasturtium has pretty handy form and chased Ebhaar first up who is of this quality. Taunting was solid enough in better company on paper but 3yo Fillies SW+P races are of a similar quality to BM78 I believe. Direct looked handy in BM70 grade last start but steps up in grade here. A clear top 3 in my eyes. Mouse Almighty has drawn wide but likes it wet and will push hard for a cross. Has time in the 955m.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


The meeting was binned after race 5. The Manikato was moved to tomorrow.


Moonee Valley - Saturday

Race 1 - 2yo Inglis Banner 1000m SW

Arkansaw Kid looked handy in a jump out win where not really tested. Mexico comes down from Sydney which is typically the better 2yo scene. Capper Thirtynine looked alright behind Arkansaw Kid. Sailors Rum cannot be ignored but I feel his trial wins did not look as good to the eye. Could be wrong though.

Betting Strategy: No bet


Race 2 - Open 1000m Hcp

A lot of fast horses here at the trip. Weather will be a big factor. Good to see they are back to 1000m for Sartorial Splendor after giving him a go at 1200m. Gets 1 and should lead or be near it if he jumps well. Esta La Roca best horse but would prefer it dry. Streetcar Stranger was only 4.4L off them in an Oakleigh Plate. Yulong Command is speedy but has been beaten by Esta La Roca before. Ancestry is a weird one. Could win or run last. Scissor Step and Ashford Street also can win.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 3 - G3 Red Anchor Stakes 3yo 1200m

Sweet Ride has been the most consistent horse around some reasonable types and is my top pick here. Likes it wet as well or indifferent on it. Sejarden does not mind the wet either and looked good in the Golden Rose but poor in latest. Can forgive. Shalailed looked good latest but jumping up here I think although did split Grand Impact and Lofty Strike. Shalaman is my 4th if he runs, if not, Crosswinds.

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Race 4 - LR Crockett Stakes 3yoF 1200m

Will be assuming wet ground here in the heavy range and due to this, I will be going against Greece and will be tipping Willinga Beast. She loves it sloppy and has form around some very good types. Greece has serious class but has flopped on heavy before. Wee Nessy seems to like the wet but is below the clear top two here. Everglade is the best of the 1 from 1 horses.

Betting Strategy: Willinga Beast 1 Unit Win (if soft 7 or worse. If obvious bias, 0.5 units instead)


Race 5 - G2 MV Fillies Classic 1600m 3yoF

A very hard race to assess. Do It La is my top tip but little confidence. Hell Hath No Fury is second but again, a bit unsure. Climbing Star won a maiden on soft but I do not like Zoustars past 1400m. Same goes with Bonheur. I do however not mind Booboo Boogie at odds. Will not be the first Savabeel I like at long odds who has came 3rd in their first start and 2nd in their second.

Betting Strategy: Booboo Boogie 0.125 units win.


Race 6 - G2 Crystal Mile 1600m WFA

My Oberon surely has to be the top tip here. Form around Modern News who was not far off Baaeed and won a G1 in Canada. Does prefer a good track but I am happy to take 7.50 regardless of surface. Tuvalu does map very well to win though and does not mind rain but also does not mind it dry. Bankers Choice is flying under the radar with sneaky runs. Likes it heavy, and closed well in both the Toorak and Rupert Clarke. Buffalo River has not been running well but if it is heavy, barrier 2 and leaderish will suit and could be the perfect race to get back in the winners circle. Happy to avoid the light weight chances from the Toorak (Gentleman Roy & Military Expert). Same goes for Visinari. Callsign Mav however is not without a chance.

Betting Strategy: My Oberon 1 Unit Win


Race 7 - G2 Moonee Valley Vase 2040m 3yo

Berkeley Square was the unluckiest in the Guineas IMO. Likes it wet as well but concerns over 2000m for me. Top tip but too short to entertain. Virtuous Circle was unlucky behind Tijuana and hopefully, does not get so far back here. Should be a lot closer in odds here. Gottabesavvy is well overs. Travesty his protest was not upheld, he had no luck at latest and kept coming. To me, he is screaming for 2000m and wet ground suits. Should lead from barrier 1. Skyphios has been going underrated this prep I feel at unsuitable trips. Quang Tri form was franked and should relish the 2040m.

Betting Strategy: Gottabesavvy 0.125 Units Win


Race 8 - G2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup 2500m SW+P

The second last key lead in for the Melbourne Cup here. Sacramento has drawn wide but hopefully has time to cross them but the first bend does come quick. 0/4 on Heavy is misleading. Form from that race has also been strong. Francesco Guardi savaged the line latest and was very unlucky. Will go very close here. If it is dry, Grand Promenade comes back into the selection as SW+P suits him far more against this field but who knows what the ground will be like. Willing to forgive Nerve Not Verve who gave her rivals 7.5kgs at WFA and gets in far better here, albeit against a better field. Can see Serpentine, Carif and Persan playing roles. Desert Icon maybe as well.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 9 - G1 The Cox Plate 2040m WFA

Write up will be out Saturday Morning.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 10 - G3 Tesio Stakes 1600m Mares

Roots is probably my top seed. Light weight and appreciates the ground. Douceur has form around decent horses and likes it wet. Drawn a tad wide though. Sirileo Miss bounced back to her best last start on a heavy. Agreeable draws well, has been running well and Kah engaged.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 11 - G1 Manikato Stakes 1200m WFA

Glad they moved the race to today. The lightning was pretty bad and fits in well here for a mega card. All of the top 4 have drawn well. Rothfire my top seed. Likes 1200m more and did not quite get a run when he needed last start. Would probably prefer it soft at worst. Bella Nipotina savaged the line at her latest. The heavier the better I would have thought. Paulele probably wants it drier but is class. Lost to the two I have above in the Moir though but is suited to 1200m. Coolangatta has drawn well for her running style but again, would want it drier. Track is already a soft 6 so I suspect heavy 8 is fair. Best of Bordeaux if he can cross is a chance. Eleven Eleven as well.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Randwick

Race 1 - 1000m 2yo SW

A lot of blue here. Have not seen this much I believe since the 2019 Golden Slipper or the 3yo Fillies Race at Randwick during the champs last season. Barber is my top seed. Shinn on a horse that has drawn barrier 1 and likely leads. Kintyre is a half sister to Fireburn. If she has her ability, she wins. Trialled same race as Barber. Coincide is Converge's half brother. Probably will not want it worse than a soft 6 then although, that could be because of the Frankel in Converge. Infatuation another chance at leading from barrier 2.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 2 - 1800m Highway Class 2 Hcp

King Of Spades has been running very well for little reward as of late but think he can turn it around. Jalmari similar. Lord Desanimaux next tip and Sassy Choice 4th.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 3 - 1200m Midway BM72 Hcp

Tristate top weight but it is the clear best horse. Russbuss next for me, followed by Astero and the Super Bright.

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Race 4 - BM78 1600m Hcp

Another race I have little interest in. Philipsburg, Mahagoni, Kermanding and Naval Seal, in that order.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 5 - Open 1600m Hcp

Willing to forgive Purple Sector. Hopefully they take him to midfield and let him launch. War Eternal may be hard to run down with 52kgs. Bigboyroy is around this class and has improved second up and can make the improvement necessary to win. Diamil a chance.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 6 - LR Brian Crowley Stakes 1200m 3yo

Thron Bone form around Giga Kick reads far better but was 5L off him. Dashing Legend second, Insurrection third and Kote 4th. For a listed race, just does not appeal.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 7 - G2 Callandar-Presnell Stakes 1400m 3yo

All hail communism. Likes it wet, trip suits. Is one for all people. Stalin would be proud. I know Golden Mile won the Guineas but that was a pathetic rendition. Flag of Honour was aright behind Communist and no queries around the trip. Basquiat is serious overs. Just found the Golden Rose too strong and got too far back on a shocking track latest. Can compete.

Betting Strategy: Communist 0.5 Units Win


Race 8 - G1 Spring Champion Stakes 2000m 3yo

Sharp n Smart beat home Williamsburg on heavy and should be even better here on the soft. She's Extreme has improved with each run this prep. Been racing better horses but the step up is a query. Williamsburg can win but probably want it a bit heavier. He is far from poor on a dry though. The guineas was not great and cannot entertain Elliptical.

Betting Strategy: Sharp n Smart 0.5 Units Win


Race 9 - The Invitation 1400m F&M

This is not a stakes race technically so Icebath will be less allergic to winning but still do not have her on top. I think Nimalee has had form around the best horses and her running style does her more favours. Espiona can improve. Has shown ability, just needs to put it all together. Forbidden Love has drawn to suit but probably wants it wetter. Also, it is interesting how Sheeza Belter resumes here but is not suited compared to the WFA scale.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 10 - BM88 1200m Hcp

Bacchnalia should finish the day on a high for the Blue Army. Has form around good types. Bella Rouge the biggest danger with the lighter weight. Wisdom of Water third tip and Acquitted 4th. Really really like Bacchnalia.

Betting Strategy: Bacchnalia 2 units win


Betting Strategy

MV R4 (Fri): Field of Flutes 0.5 Units Win

MV R4 (Sat): Willinga Beast 1 Unit Win

MV R5 (Sat): Booboo Boogie 0.125 Units Win

MV R6 (Sat): My Oberon 1 Unit Win

MV R7 (Sat): Gottabesavvy 0.125 Units Win

Rand R7: Communist 0.5 Units Win

Rand R8: Sharp n Smart 0.5 Units Win

Rand R10: Bacchnalia 2 units win


Tipping

Moonee Valley - Friday R1: 1 Silent Sovereign - 4 Ocean Miss - 2 Hunboshi - 7 Shezadandi

R2: 1 So Si Bon - 6 Winning Partner - 3 Regardsmaree - 4 Grandslam

R3: 4 Stylish Enuff - 9 Battle and Bang - 7 Vultan - 5 Diesel n Dust

R4: 5 Field of Flutes - 2 Miss Roseiano - 8 Zourata - 1 Shalaman

R5: 4 Nasturtium - 2 Direct - 3 Taunting - 5 Mouse Almighty


Moonee Valley - Saturday

R1: 1 Arkansaw Kid - 4 Mexico - 3 Capper Thirtynine - 5 Sailor's Rum

R2: 6 Sartorial Splendor - 5 Streetcar Stranger - 3 Esta La Roca - 9 Scissor Step

R3: 2 Sweet Ride - 1 Sejardan - 6 Shalailed - 3 Crosswinds

R4: 3 Willinga Beast - 12 Greece - 7 Wee Nessy - 10 Everglade

R5: 2 Do It La - 9 Booboo Boogie - 1 Zoe's Promise - 8 Starianne

R6: 5 My Oberon - 8 Bankers Choice - 4 Buffalo River - 1 Callsign Mav

R7: 1 Berkeley Square - 2 Virtuous Circle - 10 Gottabesavvy - 5 Skyphios

R8: 9 Nerve Not Verve - 11 Francesco Guardi - 2 Sacramento - 1 Grand Promenade

R9: 10 Anamoe - 6 Gold Trip - 4 Mr Brightside - 1 Zaaki

R10: 6 Roots - 1 Sirileo Miss - 3 Agreeable - 4 Douceur

R11: 7 Rothfire - 10 Bella Nipotina - 5 Paulele - 14 Coolangatta


Randwick

R1: 1 Barber - 4 Kintyre - 2 Coincide - 10 Infatuation

R2: 6 King of Spades - 3 Jalmari - 1 Lord Desanimaux - 5 Sassy Choice

R3: 18 Tristate - 9 Russbuss - 2 Astero - 11 Super Bright

R4: 4 Phillipsburg - 8 Mahagoni - 11 Kermanding - 12 Naval Seal

R5: 2 Purple Sector - 8 War Eternal - 1 Bigboyroy - 4 Diamil

R6: 1 Thron Bone - 7 Dashing Legend - 3 Insurrection - 2 Kote

R7: 4 Communist - 1 Golden Mile - 5 Flag of Honour - 3 Basquiat

R8: 3 Sharp n Smart - 11 She's Extreme - 4 Williamsburg - 1 Elliptical

R9: 2 Nimalee - 10 Espiona - 3 Icebath - 1 Forbidden Love

R10: 5 Bacchnalia - 14 Bella Rouge - 2 Wisdom of Water - 3 Acquitted

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