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The Weekend Preview - 27/08/22

Welcome to the preview for the first G1 of the season in Victoria, the G1 Memsie Stakes. As stated previously, I am retiring the tips for the three minor states as I do not do enough research however, there may be one I like at Eagle Farm today. Let us get into it and build a bank for the spring.


Caulfield

Race 1 - BM78 2000m Hcp

Americain Angel, a horse that has eluded me for some time will still be my top seed however, will not be getting any of my money. The step up in trip and a bit of give should help her. Spanish Tides has form tied around Americain Angel and has been running quite well and Blake Shinn gets his first ride back at Saturday Metro level. Fifth Position was unreal last start, being held up and still getting the job done. Meets potentially a worse calibre of field here. Storm King brings in strong country and 3yo open class form but meets his toughest test yet.

Betting Strategy: No Bet (but might cry if Americain Angel wins)


Race 2 - BM90 Mares 1400m Hcp

Lady of Honour is worth of another chance considering she had not put a foot wrong in her career until last start. Bam's on Fire has been running only fair lately but comes back to mares grade and is well weighted. Starlight Scope maps to lead and the track probably will be alright on the inside by race 2. Megamea, Saigon and Groove Kind of Love are all chances.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 3 - BM78 1400m Hcp

Pascero was very unlucky last start and should be favourite here and the middle gate helps. El Rocko beat him home at the latest but as he came second, only meets Pascero 0.5kgs worse. Cardinal Gem has been running well but draws very wide. Polanco could run a placing at odds and comes from the same race as my top 2.

Betting Strategy: No bet


Race 4 - Open 1400m Hcp

Another 1400m race and of strong quality. Gentleman Roy is the top seed here, carrying the light weight and should lead or box seat Buffalo River who is also a good chance and the track has some give in it which should help him. The two best from the back are Bankers Choice, a chance in any G1 Hcp at the mile and Winning Partner, who was super last start and could honestly win here. Nicolini Vito, I Wish I Win, Open Minded and Flash Aah all dangers to the tri.

Betting Strategy: Boxed Tri (2,3,9,10) 0.25 units win


Race 5 - G3 McNeil Stakes 1200m 3yo SW+P

Aft Cabin was incredibly dominant last start however, in his first up run he struggled on the wet at 1200m however it does not look it will be that wet here but I do not like the drop back to 1200m. Because of this, I believe Zamborghini is the top tip here. He beat Lascars by 6L at his first start who has form around the early 2yos and then beat Foujita San last start however like Aft Cabin, Foujita San would probably want further. Has since won a trial. Crosswinds is 2/2 and looked good defeating Nanagui. Jacquinot, Daumier (avoiding the 2yo Vic form but these were some of the best), Lincoln Square, Tijuana and Squad all chances.

Betting Strategy: Zamborghini 0.5 units win


Race 6 - LR The Heath 1100m SW+P

Some high quality sprinters here. If it remains soft 6, In the Boat will be my top tip here. If it gets to good 4, I will be with Star Patrol. Soft 5 I probably still lean In The Boats way. Generation would be my third seed drawing well and has trialled well for this. Surface does not bother him. Red Can Man last start was not far off Elite Street, a very solid horse. Shooting For Gold and Bless her are outside chances.

Betting Strategy: No bet but a good watch


Race 7 - G3 Cockram Stakes 1200m Mares SW+P

Passive Aggressive should win this but is a bit short for my liking meeting easily her biggest test yet. Her form has been strong, beating Star Patrol and Dragonstone and has since trialled well. Chain Of Lightning is also a horse that is 4/4. She bet Fire and She's All Class at last two which is strong but not Passive Aggressive strong. Zouzarella had a mediocre last prep but 1200m seems to be her trip and was right behind Fangirl and Espiona while sitting wide in the run in the Light Fingers. Isotope was very strong in the Stradbroke Hcp and should get a good steer from Ollie here. Graceful Girl is probably the best horse but all comments suggests she is not ready. Flying Mascot probably needs 1400m, as does Kissonallfourcheeks.

Betting Strategy: Zouzarella 0.5 units place


Race 8 - G1 Memsie Stakes 1400m WFA

Tofane is a 4 time G1 winner over this trip and has been sent on a hit and run mission to win this race before she goes to the barn which makes me think she is firing and ready to win however, she may be on the bad ground by that point of the day. I'm Thunderstruck has been receiving a lot more positive comments from his stable going into his first up run here compared to last prep when he was going into the CF Orr and even the Futurity. He is the best of all the run on options as I expect there to be a bit of pace in this race. I am confident Duais is the best horse in this race but she never trials particularly well and does not go well first up. She missed her first up assignment last week due to a heart issue which is a problem but for the best horse in the race, 27 seems a bit silly. Western Empire is also a run on type but I think people are overrating is Railway Stakes win carrying 53kgs and could not beat Regal Power at his previous, admittedly a very good horse but I am not getting around the hype yet but he has jumped out very well. Cascadian is another reasonable chance here and always runs well but is a magnet for trouble. Alligator Blood was going to be in my top 3 but Gerry Harvey did not seen confident in him being fit enough but he would have some residual fitness from his Queensland prep. Snapdancer has looked good at mares grade and trialled well. Illation is out of his depth here but the stable seem confident.

Betting Strategy: No bet but if the day goes well early, I personally may back Duais to place myself.


Race 9 - LR Heatherlie 1700m Hcp

Jimmy The Bear proved me wrong last start and I will not be making the same mistake here again and will be my top seed. No Effort found the 2400m too far and a drop back to 1700m should help. Emissary was strong first up last prep behind Cascadian and Yonkers. Delphi is probably the resuming stayer I would want to be with most here. Lunar Flare was also solid behind Tuvalu and Sir Davy.

Betting Strategy: Jimmy The Bear 1 Unit win


Rosehill

Race 1 - Highway Class 2 1400m Hcp

I will keep it short as this race is giving me nothing. I am going wide in Smooth Esprit to win. 1400m should help him here. Crop Duster seems progressive. Zaru has been running well in the city. Dream Game has put together some good wins in the country but comes to the city here.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 2 - BM78 1500m Mares Hcp

Frumos is the best horse here but Rosehill typically favours the rail so I will look elsewhere at 1.60 as either she needs to go through horses if the outside is inferior ground. If the track is playing fair though, she should win. If it is not, Mystic Mermaid is in the best position to beat her, drawing 1 and should settle in the lead or just off it. Air To Air was scratched from an inferior race on the card for this one so they must think she is a chance. Hope In Your Heart probably next.

Bet: No Bet as it will be too early in the day to judge if there is bias or not.


Race 3 - BM78 2000m Hcp

It is just a theory I have but in these benchmark races, if there is a Waller horse that is favourite and JMac is on one in the market, I will typically always back (some exceptions) the JMac one. Now I do not know if this has any scientific backing, but I feel Il Affare has been running well at this grade and is ready to win. First Light may lead and if there is bias, probably becomes my top seed. Born A King has been racing really well and gets a leading claimer engaged here. Oz Legend has improved at each start in Australia and should be peaking here 4th up. Head of State is the interesting one that could surprise.

Betting Strategy: No bet


Race 4 - Midway BM72 1300m Hcp

Not a fan of this race either. Herb top tip as he is promising and lightly raced, as goes for Diamond Diesel. Noble Soldier ran well last start but is inconsistent. Abuela is my 4th choice.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 5 - BM100 1400m Hcp

Old Flame looked goon in his first start in Australia and placed in his next two. He has since trialled well, should go forward and has a light weight. Angel of Truth is the best horse here and should go forward and has trialled well. Carries a lot of weight but deserves it. Grace and Harmony was awesome last start and was unlucky not to win but I would have stepped her out further in trip by now to 1500-1600m but their may not have been a suitable option. Blaze a Trail should also go forward and was a last start winner in the Mildura Cup, a race that Sierra Sue won the prior year.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 6 - BM78 1100m Hcp

Fire was unlucky that he could not run straight last start. He should settle forward and shows promise above this level here and this field is not overly strong. Quick Tempo has been running moderately behind some solid types but will be doing the same here. Rubinocchi is the likely leader and will be the one they need to catch. Lady Brook did pull up lame last start but is a 3 week layoff enough?

Betting Strategy: Fire 1 unit win


Race 7 - BM78 1500m Hcp

Another race I do not particularly like. Canasta is my top seed as he should go forward and was good last start at this grade. Waterford goes against my Waller strategy but only because JMac cannot ride light enough. Kalino is a last start winner over Canasta but meets him 1.5kgs worse here. Aeecee Express is the likely leader and if there is bias, to the rail, could prove hard to run down.

Betting Strategy: No bet


Race 8 - G3 Up & Coming Stakes 1300m Hcp

Kibou was solid last start, albeit against a weak Rosebud to the eye. He carries 53 here, gets in light and should appreciate the step up in trip being by Maurice and be very hard to run down. Ringmaster has put together some solid Queensland form behind some good types in Political Debate and Sheeza Belter. Conqueror flopped last start but that was against older horses and is coming second really a flop. Lethal Thoughts also comes from Queensland and has trialled better compared to Basquiat.

Betting Strategy: Kibou 1 unit win


Race 9 - G3 San Domenico Stakes 3yo C&G SW+P

Best of Bordeaux is Coolmore's likely Everest pick at this stage and looked good in a trial recently. His 2yo form (outside of the slipper does not look as strong). Deserving favourite but at current price, I do not like especially as I think some of the wet/leader biased tracks aided him in the spring. Should win this though if he is any chance of getting a slot. Proceed with caution. The Freedmans do not send horses to Sydney to make up the numbers and Cannonball was solid behind what appear to be three very good horses. Spacewalk was unlucky last start and wins if he could run straight but might want a bit further. Nettuno brings in strong Queensland form on the wet which is unusual as he is by I am Invincible so maybe he could improve on a dry track here.

Betting Strategy: No bet


Race 10 - BM88 1200m Hcp

A very strong benchmark 88 here with a few in this likely to go on to better things. Shades of Rose keeps winning but meets her biggest test here. Should win but too short for my liking considering Maotoi, another promising horse who has now shown he can settle is in the field. Conscript was good last start but this is a stronger BM88. Easy Single beat Enchanted Heart at latest who ran well in a G2 at her next start. If the track has some rail bias, he could win. Tristate is another interesting one, finishing 3rd here behind Home Affairs and Paulele last spring.

Betting Strategy: No bet


Other

Eagle Farm Race 1 - BM70 1000m Hcp

My best bet of the day appears to be in Queensland. Sweet Margot Mary is an I Am Invincible mare who has won 3/6 but is 2/2 on dry ground here. Has trialled well behind 2 group class horses and should be ready to fire here. I do not often place bets outside of Vic and NSW and I really like her.

Betting Strategy: Sweet Margot Mary 1.5 units win


Betting Strategy:

Caul R4: Boxed Tri 2,3,9,10 0.25 units

Caul R5: Zamborghini 0.5 units win

Caul R7: Zouzarella 0.5 units place

Caul R9: Jimmy The Bear 1 unit win

Rose R6: Fire 1 unit win

Rose R8: Kibou 1 unit win

EF R1: Sweet Margot Mary 1.5 units win

Total outlay: 5.75 units. $20 units = $115


Tipping:

Caulfield

R1: 9 Americain Angel - 6 Spanish Tides - 2 Fifth Position - 12 Storm King

R2: 5 Lady of Honour - 1 Bam's On Fire - 9 Starlight Scope - 3 Megamea

R3: 7 Pascero - 11 El Rocko - 14 Cardinal Gem - 3 Polanco

R4: 9 Gentleman Roy - 2 Buffalo River - 3 Bankers Choice - 10 Winning Partner

R5: 10 Zamborghini - 12 Aft Cabin - 4 Crosswinds - 1 Daumier

R6: 4 In The Boat - 10 Star Patrol - 3 Generation - 6 Red Can Man

R7: 7 Passive Aggressive - 11 Chain of Lightning - 6 Zouzarella - 8 Isotope

R8: 12 Tofane - 1 I'm Thunderstruck - 13 Duais - 5 Western Empire

R9: 9 Jimmy The Bear - 8 No Effort - 11 Emissary - 7 Lunar Flare


Rosehill

R1: 7 Smooth Esprit - 11 Crop Duster - 1 Zaru - 4 Dream Gone

R2: 2 Frumos - 8 Mystic Mermaid - 6 Air to Air - 4 Hope In Your Heart

R3: 5 Il Affare - 8 First Light - 1 Born A King - 11 Oz Legend

R4: 14 Herb - 8 Diamond Diesel - 2 Noble Soldier - 15 Abuela

R5: 9 Old Flame - 1 Angel Of Truth - 10 Grace & Harmony - 6 Blaze a Trail

R6: 5 Fire - 3 Rubinocchi - 4 Quick Tempo - 9 Lady Brook

R7: 5 Canasta - 14 Waterford - 8 Kalino - 9 Aeecee Express

R8: 8 Kibou - 5 Ringmaster - 11 Conqueror - 4 Lethal Thoughts

R9: 1 Best of Bordeaux - 8 Cannonball - 9 Spacewalk - 5 Nettuno

R10: 8 Shades of Rose - 3 Maotoi - 2 Easy Single - 9 Tristate

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