top of page
  • thecouchcritic1

Weekend Preview 01/10/2022

Welcome to the first preview of October and it is a beautiful morning. First one that has felt like spring (in Vic) and the racing to match, particularly in NSW. As it is late, I will be not be writing up every race, just the ones I plan on backing or the big races.


Flemington

Race 2 - LR Paris Lane Stakes 1400m Hcp

Visinari to me looks an incredibly good thing running very close to Tuvalu. Kah engaged and has drawn well. I think The Garden is a false second fav. Has reasonably strong form at benchmark level but but not sure if Field of Roses is the right form. I personally like a few of the longshots to fill the placings such as Poland, Winning Partner, Regalo Di Gaetano and Holbien.

Betting Strategy: Visinari 2.5 Units Win


Race 3 - G2 Edward Manifold Stakes 1600m 3yoF SW

She's Licketysplit was very unlucky last start sitting very very wide on speed. Should have finished second. Sumatra comes from that same race but meets her 3kgs worse off and drawn a little wider here and had the easier run. Moko is yet to win a race but has placed in group company. Typhoon Titmus has ran well this prep but did not show a stack on the step up in trip and is on the back-up.

Betting Strategy: She's Lickety Split 1.5 Unit Win.


Race 6 - G3 The Bart Cummings 2510m Hcp

While not a G1, I still believe this is a big race as it is a major lead up for the Cup. Usually, the winner goes onto run very well in the cup (Think Almandin, Persan & Grand Promenade) but I am not sure this year has a horse of that quality. In saying that, this years cup is far weaker. I would say Daiqainsweet Junior is of that quality but as he is already in the top 24 ballot, there is not a huge incentive to win. He very well may as he is the best horse but I can see them parking him out the back and running on well, like Realm of Flowers last year. Vow & Declare will be there to win or at least place as he needs to place to make the ballot. Midnight Blue is ridiculous overs and was awesome in his first two runs this prep but was found out on a heavy. Very happy to ignore. Interpretation is from a respected stable and must be considered. Very happy to ignore Desert Icon. Had it very easy in the lead on a biased track and cannot see him replicating that run. Lunar Flare is another with a good chance with how she went last start. San Huberto could be a chance as well.

Betting Strategy: Considered Midnight Blue but no bet


Race 7 - G1 Turnbull Stakes 2000m SW+P

Duais vs Gold Trip here for me. Duais is the better horse but pulled up lame last outing which would explain why she did not let down second up but is two weeks enough to recover from lameness, you would hope so. She also meets Gold Trip 4.5kgs off at WFA. However, she loves Flemington and is a far better horse 3rd up. Gold Trip gets the weight off and was very good last start, meets others like Chapada and Smokin Roman far better at the weights. Profondo showed ability first up but did not enjoy the ground second up. Gets the Good Track he has been waiting a long time for and should have no excuses. Young Werther ran really well in this race last year and was very strong first up and 300m extra ground helps. No surprise if he wins. Inspirational Girl was fine second up in an unfavourable race but form from it has been poor. Surefire was good last start but meets a far tougher race here. Maximal gets a good track but I do not think he is good enough. Chapada was good first up and ran a blinder last year. Great House was also good in that Young Werther race. Knights Order is high quality but anti-clockwise is of concern.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 8 - G2 Gilgai Stakes 1200m SW+P

Straight horses will be the way to go. Roch N Horse was really good last out and meets Baller 1.5kgs better. Swats That meets her 0.5kgs worse but should be improved second up. Athelric has been running very well this prep and weirdly, could be in consideration for an Everest Slot. Would need to win today. The Astrologist was good first up, loves the straight and cannot be overlooked. Kemalpasa was good at Morphettville but meets a tougher race. Does like the straight though. Do not like Private Eye. He is class but has not had a look at the straight and is more of a 1400m horse. Baller gives more weight to rivals here. Sirius Suspect and Zoutori like the straight but one is not going well and the other meets a tougher race.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Randwick

Race 2 - G3 Gimcrack Stakes

Perfect Proposal looked to be the best trial of the day. Never know how they will handle the heavy but she beat 3rd favourite Satin and Silk quite comfortably and looks hard to beat here. She does not appear to be Coolangatta good but she will be very hard to beat. Sicilian and Platinum Jubilee are from a strong 2yo stable and must be considered. Satin & Silk is an I Am Invincible which typically do not handle the wet. Divine Glory was good behind Platinum Jubilee. THis race looks better than the Colts.

Betting Strategy: Perfect Proposal 1.5 Units Win


Race 3 - BM88 1600m Hcp

Hosier is the clear best horse in this field. Seems to be at his best at the mile and 6/7 on rain affected ground. Yes he has 58kgs with the claimer but Gibbons is about the best apprentice you could have hoped for. Gives weight to some good types but he is a Group horse, maybe a group 1 galloper on rain affected ground. He should win this and win well. Arnold is the big danger, by a noted heavy track sire and has been running well. Kalino gets in light and another strong chance.

Betting Strategy: Hosier 1 Unit Win


Race 4 - G2 Hill Stakes 2000m WFA

Montefilia is an unbelievable bet today IMO. Best horse here at level weights, to his competition, loves the wet, loves 2000m. You have to remember, she beat Verry Elleegant by 2 lengths in a G1 last prep at this track and trip and on a similar surface while running 2 seconds faster than Anamoe on the same day while working home in the same time. A criminally underrated horse and was awesome first up. Cascadian clearly the second best horse but should be more like 4 bucks. Does not mind the wet but arguably prefers it drier. 2000m is fine but prefers the mile. Combine both the Heavy and 2000m and I think it will be too much against a horse like Montefilia. Numerian should be a similar price to Cascadian, not the same quality galloper but better over this trip (comparatively to best distance) and arguably better on the wet. Betting Strategy: Montefilia 2.5 Units Win


Race 6 - G1 Flight Stakes 1600m 3yoF

Another really good chance here. Fireburn has looked very good both runs this prep, first over an unpreferred distance, second up in a G1 where she has drawn wide not on her best ground. She gets the heavy, she gets 1600m however always have to be careful with a back up. She's Extreme also gets the wet track she wants but is less brilliant than Fireburn. Pretty sure we get the Quinella of the ATC Sires Produce. Zougotcha has been running well and good form is following her around. North Star Lass loves to lead and will be the one they need to catch.

Betting Strategy: Fireburn 2 Units Win


Race 7 - G2 Premiere Stakes 1200m WFA

Few leaders here Mazu, Overpass, Apache Chase and Prime Candidate but I assume the pace will be only moderate. Two best horses here are Masked Crusader and Lost & Running but both probably prefer the dry ground. Mazu is a horse though that loves the slop but is a level below those two however, he has drawn well (if he jumps well). Kementari is another that loves the slop but could be a level below but geez, did he look good first up. Shelby Sixtysix also loves the wet but has looked hopeless so far this prep, maybe this surface helps him a little bit but maybe for like a 5th at best. Overpass looked really good last start but not sure on the wet.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 8 - G1 Epsom Hcp 1600m Hcp

The Epsom is an interesting race. I believe there is a clear three but so does the market. Top Ranked is the best horse here but a horse on the back up for his second run this prep is virtually unheard of, let alone in a G1. For that reason, I am going with Icebath. She is going as good as ever and is running at her peak. Wet is no issue and smaller field should help. She is yet to win a stakes race (albeit the Invitation basically is one) and I think today is the day she can change that. Hinged loves the slop, will go forward but could get caught wide. Fangirl is the best of the rest but prefers better ground.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 9 - G1 The Metropolitan 2400m Hcp

A weak G1 here but still an entertaining race. I have found value. Realm of Flowers loves it wet, peaks 3rd up onwards and her best performance is better than any other horse in this race. She also only has to carry 51kgs. Presents tremendous value but it is more based around what she has done, not how she is tracking. Her second up run was far improved though. Stockman loves the slop but carries top weight. Le Don De Vie has put up a strong performance in the 2400m wet race in the Autumn and could be ready to replicate 3rd up. I know Durston beat Araphao but is rising in weight and has queries on the heavy whereas Araphao loves it wet. Mankayan is a better 2000m horse and I would have kept him to those trips.

Betting Strategy: Realm of Flowers 0.25 Units Win, 0.75 Units Place.


Betting Strategy

Flem R2: Visinari 2.5 Units Win

Flem R3: She's Licketysplit 1.5 Units Win

Rand R2: Perfect Proposal 1.5 Units Win

Rand R3: Hosier 1 Unit Win

Rand R4: Montefilia 2.5 Units Win

Rand R6: Fireburn 2 Units Win

Rand R9: Realm Of Flowers 0.25 Units Win, 0.75 Units Place

Confident in the ability to make money today so 12 units outlayed. $20 units would be $240 outlaid.


Tipping

Flemington

R1: 9 Aditi - 10 Charm Stone - 2 Beluga Express - 4 Mount Olympus

R2: 7 Visinari - 8 Winning Partner - 5 Poland - 1 Regalo Di Gaetano

R3: 1 She's Lickety Split - 2 Sumatra - 8 Typhoon Titmus - 4 Moko

R4: 1 Yearning - 5 Argentia - 6 Odeum - 11 Pride of Jenni

R5: 3 Giga Kick - 8 Doull - 5 Buenos Noches - 1 Swiss Exile

R6: 2 Vow & Declare - 4 Daqiansweet Junior - 7 Midnight Blue - 8 Lunar Flare

R7: 2 Duais - 12 Gold Trip - 4 Profondo - 11 Young Werther

R8: 6 Roch N Horse - 13 Swats That - 8 Athelric - 3 The Astrologist R9: 11 Cadazio - 2 Major Beel - 3 Red Sun Sensation - 4 Artzino


Randwick

R1: 1 Empire of Japan - 2 Flying Trapeze - 5 Mach Ten - 9 Tarabeau R2: 7 Perfect Proposal - 12 Sicilian - 8 Platinum Jubilee - 11 Satin Silk

R3: 2 Hosier - 14 Arnold - 6 Casino Kid - 3 Paternal

R4: 8 Montefilia - 2 Numerian - 1 Cascadian - 4 Yonkers

R5: 1 Williamsburg - 2 Flag Of Honour - 4 Communist - 10 Ain't He Grand

R6: 1 Fireburn - 2 She's Extreme - 3 Zougotcha - 4 North Star Lass

R7: 3 Mazu - 1 Lost & Running - 5 Kementari - 2 Masked Crusader

R8: 5 Icebath - 1 Top Ranked - 8 Hinged - 3 Ellsberg R9: 10 Realm of Flowers - 1 Stockman - 2 Le Don De Vie - 4 Araphao

R10: 3 Remarque - 11 Bacchanalia - 1 Rustic Steel - 8 Kinloch

Recent Posts

See All

The Weekend Preview - 05/11/2022

Welcome to the preview for Champions Day which is shaping up in its first rendition to be the most exciting day on the racing calendar. Three excellent G1s on display with good supporting roles. I wil

The 2022 Melbourne Cup Preview

Welcome to the Preview of the best race from a viewing, history, intrigue perspective this country and honestly, the world has in the Melbourne Cup. I will be writing up every runner (some more than m

Cup Day Preview - 01/11/22

Welcome to the Cup Day preview, the best race day on the Australian calendar in the best carnival in the world. Not from a quality perspective, but a 3200m G1 Hcp with 24 runners is beyond a fascinati

Comments


bottom of page