top of page
  • thecouchcritic1

Weekend Preview - 06/08/2022

Updated: Aug 27, 2022

Welcome to the first Saturday of the season, either Missile Stakes Day or Aurie's Star Hcp Day depending on your state and it is a solid card across the two tracks. There will be pre-race previews, betting strategy and tips across the five major tracks.


Flemington Race 1 - 3yo BM70 1410m

Flemington Race 1 brings in the now 3yos. Blakmax and Berkeley Square raced against each other last start with Berkely Square finishing 0.5L in front. Berkeley Square is the far more flash of the two but Blakmax sat 3 wide no cover and meets him 0.5kgs better here. Proscenium Arch and Palaggio are both hard to rate, having won the 1 start each and could be anything but will be avoiding for the time being.

Bet: Blakmax 0.5 Units


Flemington Race 2 - Mares BM84 1410m

Quintello comes into this race as a heavy favourite and it is easy to see why if you ignore her last start which I am willing to as she comes into this race off a 6 week freshen. Night Passage brings over strong SA form but meets a better field here but has to be respected, a leading rider engaged. Mrs Sippy has been running well but at a lesser grade but this is Mares grade. Star of Eden was not far off Yonce at all two back but the start prior was 4L off her. Realistically, that could still be good enough to win. Defiant Diva also cannot be overlooked but a big jump in class.

Bet: No bet here.


Flemington Race 3 - BM70 1100m

Veranskova is a deserving favourite, finishing 0.1L off Squid Game last start and is dropping in standard here. Grand Pope and Lord Paramount both prefer it dry but soft 6 is not a drenched track by any stretch, more of that awkward middle. Sixbysixtythree and Screwed down bring in strong country form so have to be respected. Big Apple also has been performing well at 3yo open class races but realistically, that is probably a similar standard to today.

Bet: Veranskova 1 unit


Flemington Race 4 - BM78 2000m

Blue Cup performed quite strongly in his first Australian start but flopped second up which can happen. However, his international form was very average and still probably better over further. Coolth has ran very consistently this prep with a second at Flemington back in may at a higher standard. The Awesome Son is jumping up in class but should be respected and Maximus Prince was right off them last start. Between Maximus Prince and Coolth for me.

Bet: No Bet but two above are who I'd be with


Flemington Race 5 - G3 Auries Star Hcp 1200m

The first group race of the season to kick us off. King of Sparta comes off this a group winner at his last start, winning the Bletchingly Stakes however, that win has increased his rating and he did not win by a lot. Also, never had a crack at the straight in a race but is trained out of there. Shooting For Gold comes down from Qld and won a hot jump out recently and races against a field that is of similar calibre to previous starts. Sirius Suspect appears to have rediscovered his best form and is a straight track specialist. Stageman is a consistent WA galloper and has to be respected, as does Romancer who bobbed up in this race last year.

Bet: No bet but Sirius Suspect top tip.


Flemington Race 6 - BM84 1620m

He's Our Bonneval brings over decent international form at the mile around England's 90 raters. He gets the mile now after two first up runs over 1400m, last of which was at BM100 level. Cashin Chex come to Victoria after two dominant victories in SA but the races are weaker over there. He still deserves to be respected. Lyrical Lad has been performing at a very consistent level as has Here To Shock but both have been doing so around the BM70 to 78 levels. Born A King appears to be at his best on a good deck but Soft 6 is not a bog by any stretch.

Bet: He's Our Bonneval 1 unit


Flemington Race 7 - Open 2530m

I have probably backed Through Irish Eyes in 4 of his last 5 where he has placed 5 times but I will be doing so again. Last start was probably cost having Horrifying sit on that slow tempo and control the race which is always worse in a staying affair. Meets Horrifying better but only by 0.5L. Teewaters was dominant in Open Grade last start against older horses but strikes a better field here. High Emocean was very strong first up behind a very handy field. Port Guillaume also has merit at a high price but probably as a place chance.

Bet: Through Irish Eyes 0.5 Units


Flemington Race 8 - Open 1410m

Winning Partner has been going deceptively well lately, finishing 5L off what could be an eventual G1 winner and deserves a speck at odds. Niccoli Vito has hit some strong form but going through the grades at this pace is tough unless you are star which I am not sure he is. Zoltan was solid second up in a decent race while Bam's On Fire at her best was above this standard.

Bet: Winning Partner 0.25 Units


Flemington Race 9 - BM84 1100m

Fire is a heavy favourite due to showing glimpses of a strong ability. I do believe he is a touch short though against this quality of field, one of those horses being Squid Game, who really seems to enjoy the straight. Squid Games losses have come to the likes of Star Patrol, Passive Aggresive/Dragonstone and Inundation (luckless there), all of which are incredibly solid horses. Chain Of Lighting comes into this 3/3 and beat She's All Class in dominant fashion but comes against two high quality boys. A three horse race but Pioneer River could be a place chance at odds.

Bet: Squid Game Place 1 Unit


Randwick Race 1 - Highway Class 3 1800m

I hate these races (the betting, I think the concept is fantastic) and I am no good at punting in them so I'll keep it short. I prefer to stick with horses already running in highways, so Zadig and Lord Desanimaux are the two I like most followed by Relucent. I am not sure the trainers even know what the Lords best trip is anyway. Mirror Queen however seems to be quite progressive.

Bet: No Bet


Randwick Race 2 - Midway BM72 1800m

Bazooka comes into this as favourite and he has probably been the horse out of this field with the best career to date but has not been going super well this prep, albeit at a better standard. Adios Steve and Highly Desired have both been running well. Butch'n'Bugs the next of the bunch for me.

Bet: No Bet


Randwick Race 3 - BM78 2400m

Now this is an interesting race and while the the market has them separated, I personally cannot split them. Cadre Du Noir showed good ability a few years back but has not been sighted an awful lot at the track since then. Was strong second up and has subsequently trialled well. Our Candidate gets the 3kg claim, and was strong at Grafton last start. Seems to be at peak fitness as well. Phillsburg jumps in trip after some consistent runs against solid horses like Wicklow and La Chevalee. Marakopa might prefer the slop but has been running well and gets in with 56kgs. Forest Diamond comes into this after some strong Melbourne runs, which typically proves to be the stronger staying form but I am not sure it will here.

Bet: No bet but prefer Our Candidate over Cadre.


Randwick Race 4 - 3&4yo BM72 1400m

Two progressive Waller horses come up against each other, both having trialled well and the winner will likely amount to something. Conqueror carries less weight but is younger so that cancels it out. Looked good in two trials and breeding suggests will enjoy it more. While Coodarady has looked less impressive to date, he has not put a foot wrong and being a little older makes me think he is more race ready but that is speculative. I've been trying could surprise but seems to relish the slop as does Cotton Fingers. Arnaqueur has been racing far better horses so far so he cannot be ignored.

Bet: No bet but an intriguing watch


Randwick Race 5 - BM78 1300m

A race I am not overly keen on but has a favourite that should win. Yet to miss the quinella and may prefer the sting out of the ground like today, but too early to tell. Daralina Belle found her last win in Victoria but jumps up 200m here, which I am not sure I like. Equation has been racing against far better horses and has a gun apprentice engaged and so does Grace and Harmony but both might be slightly better over further. Niffler is probably around this standard but also likely better over further.

Bet: I want to back the progressive Pizarro but with two horses who were both racing against far better horses who claim here, I find it hard to do so.


Randwick Race 6 - BM78 1000m

Maotoi has been gelded, which was likely the sensible decision having appeared to settle in a trial. Meets Smirnova 3.5kgs worse at WFA who is very solid in her own right but that form around Paulele, Mazu and In The Congo is so hard to ignore. Smirnova as discussed has ability but I think she will have to wait another start for a win. Clear top two in my eyes.

Bet: Maotoi win 1 Unit


Randwick Race 7 - Open 1800m

A reasonably strong open handicap here which should provide a guide for the spring. Alcyone will be carrying 50.5kgs here, a very low weight and should enjoy the step up in trip. He meets Lord Ardmore here second up who was huge last start but I think he benefitted from the heavy in a race which Francesco Guardi was in. La Chevalee also looked good but is a genuine mudlark who will need it heavy. Another horse that cannot be discounted is Realm of Flowers, one of the best stayers in Australia. Is likely not here to win and to put into some perspective, meets Alcyone 9.5kgs worse at WFA (including claim) but be watching for her to hit the line well. A place chance.

Bet: Alcyone 0.5 Units


Randwick Race 8 - G2 Missile Stakes 1200m SW+P

Forbidden Love is the best horse in this field, but typically hits her best at 1400m and is giving others weight here, plus it may be too dry. For that alone, I look elsewhere but will be no surprises if she wins. However, Belluci Babe is the top tip, being a proper sprinter running well in G1s, one of which was the TJ Smith. Has trialled well and should be respected. Count De Rupee is the other who has raced decent horses but not quite as strong at the top level. Prime Candidate is an outside place chance. Have to respect Hilal and Nimalee both both are likely better over further. Embracer ran in last years Everest and has since trialled up a storm.

Bet: Belluci Babe 0.5 Units


Randwick Race 9 - BM78 1600m

I do not like this race I must say. Feels very up in the air but First Light probably the top seed due to Nash being on an on pacer from barrier 1 who ran well last start. Bold Mac brings in two on the trot dropping in standard but carrying 60.5kgs fail. Il Affare, Contributing Factor and Fiordland also must be respected here.

Bet: No Bet


Randwick Race 10 - BM78 1200m

Another race I am not keen on to finish the day. Lady Banff top tip but no confidence. Could see others such as Glittery, Sunrise Ruby, Jal Lei, Lady Brook and Belsielle all deserve respect. Maybe others see it differently but it is a toss up in my eyes.

Bet: No Bet


Betting Strategy

- Flem R1: Blakmax 0.5 Units

- Flem R3: Veranskova 1 Unit

- Flem R6: He's Our Bonneval 1 Unit

- Flem R7: Through Irish Eyes 0.5 Units

- Flem R8: Winning Partner 0.25 Units

- Flem R9: Squid Game Place 1 Unit

- Rand R6: Maotoi 1 Unit

- Rand R7: Alcyone 0.5 Units

- Rand R8: Belluci Babe 0.5 Units

Using $20 units, this is a $125 outlay day. Will be using TAB Fixed Odds jump price.


TIPS

Flemington:

Race 1: 5 Blackmax - 4 Berkeley Square - 7 Palaggio - 9 Proscenium Arch

Race 2: 3 Quintello - 10 Star of Eden - 2 Night Passage - 9 Mrs Sippy

Race 3: 13 Veranskova - 17 Screwed Down - 1 Sixbysixtythree - 9 Grand Pope

Race 4: 10 Coolth - 3 Maximus Prince - 2 Blue Cup - 15 The Awesome Sun

Race 5: 4 Sirius Suspect - 3 King Of Sparta - 5 Shooting For Gold - 2 Stageman Race 6: 4 He's Our Bonneval - 8 Cashin' Chex - 5 Lyrical Lad - 6 Here To Shock

Race 7: 6 Through Irish Eyes - 7 High Emocean - 4 Teewaters - 5 Horrifying Race 8: 3 Winning Partner - 4 Nicolini Vito - 8 Zoltan - 5 Bam's On Fire Race 9: 7 Squid Game - 10 Fire - 9 Chain of Lightning - 3 Pioneer River


Randwick:

Race 1: 10 Mirror Queen - 2 Zadig - 9 Lord Desanimaux - 1 Relucent

Race 2: 5 Bazooka - 7 Adios Steve - 1 Highly Desired - 8 Butch'n'bugs

Race 3: 2 Our Candidate - 1 Cadre Du Noir - 7 Forest Diamond - 3 Philipsburg

Race 4: 10 Coodarady - 13 Conqueror - 6 Arnaqueur - 4 I've Been Trying

Race 5: 7 Pizarro - 2 Equation - 1 Grace and Harmony - 9 Daralina Belle Race 6: 1 Maotoi - 6 Smirnova - 2 Stoical - 10 Rita May

Race 7: 12 Alcyone - 6 Lord Ardmore - 2 Realm of Flowers - 8 Francesco Guardi Race 8: 10 Belluci Babe - 3 Forbidden Love - 7 Embracer - 1 Count De Rupee Race 9: 5 First Light - 1 Bold Mac - 4 Il Affare - 2 Contributing Factor

Race 10: 8 Lady Banff - 2 Jai Lei - 6 Belsielle - 7 Lady Brock


Doomben Race 1: 1 Spiritualised - 2 Hang Five - 4 Alert Five - 5 Demon Delivery

Race 2: 4 Without Thinking - 11 Za Ceibas - 8 Red Light Roxanne - 10 The Love Rocket Race 3: 7 Just Field - 8 Self Indulgent - 13 Ahika - 5 Rich Lips

Race 4: 1 Proper Rogue - 15 He's The News - 7 Land of Valens - 11 Vaporizing

Race 5: 7 Bold Pedro - 2 Get The Idea - 4 Ocean Treaty - 6 Couldn't Refuse

Race 6: 1 Giannis - 8 Broken Hero - 4 Jovality - 10 Jakama

Race 7: 15 Manhood - 10 Dark Dreamer - 3 Edit - 1 Gogol

Race 8: 8 Garibaldi - 3 Desert Lord - 9 Tavisan - 12 Snowzone

Race 9: 2 Bold Warrior - 17 Enterprise Mia - 12 Knight Mariner - 5 Rubamos


Murray Bridge

Race 1: 13 Party Princess - 3 Hit The Slopes - 6 Intrepid Eagle - 14 Pretty Reliable

Race 2: 2 Smiling Assassin - 1 Lord Bouzeron - 4 Capricorn Ridge - 3 Zoffala Race 3: 8 Quietly Discreet - 2 Thompsons Reward - 4 Aadelad - 7 Hidden Legend

Race 4: 4 Big Sue - 7 Yuri Royale - 8 Alpine Flyer - 3 Bolt By

Race 5: 7 So Say Angel - 2 Reckoning - 8 Unlaced - 9 Impossible Action

Race 6: 2 Lomax - 1 Dirt on Harry - 4 Rapid Raiser - 6 Take Me North

Race 7: 11 Glacius - 3 Taunting - 2 Wotuwant - 9 Somewatt Fabulous

Race 8: 10 Night Hussler - 2 Maximum Velocity - 15 Dawnburst - 13 My Khalifa

Race 9: 9 Rose Tycoon - 2 Fox Gem - I'm A Legend - 3 Classy Kenny


Belmont

Race 1: 2 Mocha Dream - 5 Fortune's Luck - 1 Duratime - 6 Invincible Ruby

Race 2: 1 Etomorp - 9 Patchwork - 10 Inahappydaze - 5 Eldorado River Race 3: 4 Arcadia Grace - 1 Keep Attacking - 2 She's A Sweet Deal - 5 English Heritage

Race 4: 3 Brave Dream - 2 No Apology - 6 Westriver Miracle - 5 Scorpion Stormz

Race 5: 7 The Velvet Queen - 4 Bold Success - 1 Reliable Star - 3 Sugar Cain

Race 6: 9 Jeanella - 1 Invisible String - 8 Mia Gusto - 6 Uncle Gerard

Race 7: 8 Skipping Digits - 6 Born To Rule - 4 Storm Commander - 2 Sockoff

Race 8: 4 Multinational - 1 Phanta - 8 Regal Music - 5 Blazing Away

Race 9: 3 Awesome Chatter - 2 Kohli - 1 Little Flirt - 4 Costa Del Santo

Race 10: 3 Mahaleo - 1 Catalpa - 6 Zero Consequence - 5 Mr Mt Walker

Race 11: 9 Savage One - 8 Ginger Flyer - 1 Dig Deep - 6 Nowhiteflag

Race 12: 5 Cold Shizzle - 1 False Statement - 4 Hibiscus Lady - 8 Abloh


Recent Posts

See All

The Weekend Preview - 05/11/2022

Welcome to the preview for Champions Day which is shaping up in its first rendition to be the most exciting day on the racing calendar. Three excellent G1s on display with good supporting roles. I wil

The 2022 Melbourne Cup Preview

Welcome to the Preview of the best race from a viewing, history, intrigue perspective this country and honestly, the world has in the Melbourne Cup. I will be writing up every runner (some more than m

Cup Day Preview - 01/11/22

Welcome to the Cup Day preview, the best race day on the Australian calendar in the best carnival in the world. Not from a quality perspective, but a 3200m G1 Hcp with 24 runners is beyond a fascinati

Comments


bottom of page