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Weekend Preview - 20/08/22

Updated: Aug 27, 2022

Welcome to the weekend preview for G1 Winx Stakes day. Like usual, we will be previewing every race at the main two tracks with a betting strategy.


Moonee Valley

Race 1 - Open 1200m 3yoF SW+P

Little Miss Kubi comes into this off a 2.8L win in a Moe maiden which is good enough to win this. Va Via probably brings in the best form into this but struggles to win. Clarity is a very interesting horse having won a trial on the heavy while also having solid breeding but will likely be better over further. Miss Subtly and Denied both deserve respect.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 2 - Open 1500m 3yo Hcp

Another tough race IMO. Promiscenium Arch appears to be the top seed, being by So You Think should relish the trip. Castillan probably next best (really backing in the Berkely Square form here). Final Overture has some class in her breeding, being closely related to Elephant and Rhinoceros. Islero being by Almanzor should also enjoy this trip.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 3 - Open 1500m Hcp

Forgot You is the class of the race who will go on to better things but he is carrying a fair bit more weight at WFA compared to his rivals so I might look elsewhere. Shot Of Irish is that elsewhere, as he loves the slop, will get forward in a race where there does not appear to be a stack of speed however, recent work has been iffy. Alana Kelly should try use the barrier and role forward on Proconsent. Rosseau has drawn widest but Kah on is a plus from there and should roll forward but likely wants further. Kiss Me If You Can and Cyclone Sally are not the worst place chances at odds, enjoying the wet but are jumping from benchmark 70 and 78 level. Lackeen does not like the wet.

Betting Strategy: Shot of Irish 0.5 Units Place

Race 4 - BM78 2500m Hcp

Mimi's Award has drawn barrier 2, and the claim with Lafferty on board suggests to me that she will go forward. She also enjoys the wet. Duke of Hasting is a promising galloper but faces his biggest test here. Rudhyar struggled against this class last start at the track and trip and hard to see her fighting it out with the top 2 in the market. Saracen Knight (Should try go forward) and Pure Deal (jumping in class but was lumping big weights) therefore round out my top 4.

Betting Strategy: Mimi's Award 0.5 Units Win


Race 5 - LR McKenzie Stakes 1200m 3yoC&G

A tough race to assess. I'll ignore Let'srollthedice as he is better over further and I am not convinced El Padrino is any good although, he did win a trial on heavy. Chester Warrior comes into this off a 4L win at Swan Hill on the soft. Foujita San is likely the class in this but being by Maurice, it is likely he wants further and good ground, not appealing to me at current odds at all. Fast Witness has been running well on heavy ground but only just scraped into his maiden. Shalaman was 4L off Alpha One which may actually not be the worst form.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 6 - BM78 1600m Hcp

I am shocked at Mayfair Spirits current odds (Kah effect). This is a horse that Fellows (original trainer stated) was struggling in Europe due to the ground. He has since came to Australia and underperformed on wet decks and while this field sucks, it is enough to make me ignore. Dirty Deeds is where I have landed, who improved second up and gets a heavy but little confidence. Nerone, Global Gift & Do You Reckon are others with a decent chance.

Betting Strategy: No Bet


Race 7 - Open 2040m Hcp

Shame Gold Trip was scratched as he was actually 3.5kgs better weighted than his rating. Mankayan is the class and should lead or box seat from that barrier. Irish Flame was far better 2nd up against a hot field. Loves the wet and is the best chance to beat Mankayan and very well could. Prix De Turn was solid resuming behind Jimmy The Bear on soft and has won at this track/trip before but is an unknown on heavy but is poorly weighted against Mankayan (should have another 2.5kgs off+ whatever the WFA rate is). Blue Cup was good last start but like Prix De Turn, is poorly weighted here.

Betting Strategy: No bet


Race 8 - LR Carlyon Sprint 1000m SW+P

Extremely Lucky is a serious horse but a little unders in my opinion as he has never struck heavy (Extreme Choice's tend to be fine though) but more as Bella Nipotina is a G1 Placed sprinter, albeit over a little further. Esta La Roca best of the rest as she enjoys the wet and trip but top two probably just a tad better. Roch N Horse is class but probably prefers it dry and 1200m.

Betting Strategy: No bet


Race 9 - BM84 1200m Hcp

The Garden is the top seed here for me as he has had some good form against reasonable horses around this grade and will likely see out the heavy. Sacred Palace not terrible at odds here. Sixbysixtythree, Sessions Road and Zakat all chances. Very open race.

Betting Strategy: No bet



Randwick

Race 1 - C2 Highway 1100m Hcp

I normally hate highways but feel the market has it close to right here. Bandi's Boy top seed as he appears to like the wet and already won in the city. Close to Shelby in a trial but not sure how much that means. Participator had some solid country form but came 4th at first go in the city. Optimo has been performing very consistenly at metro tracks in both NSW & Qld. Robage draws well here but yet to taste the city.

Betting Strategy: I was actually tempted by this highway but no bet.


Race 2 - BM78 2400m Hcp

Monfelicity was awesome last start and that is enough to deter us from pulling the trigger on our blackbooker in So United. Strawberry Road also brings in form around Mimi's Award who would likely be favourite here. Impulsar had a big win on the synthetic last start.

Betting Strategy: Not pulling the trigger on the blackbooker yet (Hope it does not bite me)


Race 3 - BM72 Midway 1600m Hcp

We tipped Bazooka last time and we will not tip him again here as My Truth won his maiden in very impressive fashion and is easily good enough to win a midway, just may not be today with the wide barrier. Scorched Land has been running consistently well, as has Bulba. Adios Steve also not a terrible chance.

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Race 4 - BM78 1600m Hcp

Equation was really good against a field that was superior to this and gets a gun claimer on board and somehow, is 9.50 compared to Niffler's 3.90 and while she may have more scope for improvement, the discrepancy in odds is ridiculous. Casino Prince was good last start at same grade and trip but has to carry 2.5kgs more now. I've Been Trying was good last start, but at an inferior grade and and on her preferred surface of heavy.

Betting Strategy: Equation 0.5 Units Place


Race 5 - G3 Show County Qlty 1200m Hcp

Showmanship to me is the best horse here and they have been very patient with him, waiting for the right race and hopefully, soft 5 is the right ground. Prime Candidate is ever consistent and has a favourable running style for consistency. King Of Sparta flopped last start but happy to ignore from a chance perspective. I think I might have backed Chat in this race last year but the top of the market seem stronger. Special Reward could also surprise but has too much weight for my liking for his quality.

Betting Strategy: Showmanship 1 unit win


Race 6 - G3 Premiers Cup 2000m Hcp

Le Don De Vie is the best horse in this race but is he 4kgs better than Lord Ardmore? Personally, I believe yes he is and he has managed to beat Tuvalu (bit unlucky) with more weight at the mile previously. Grove Ferry and Francesco Guardi both have been running well. A Waller first 4 is a real possibility with Toomuchtobear, Yiyi and Chalk Stream but Ciaron Maher will again, prove his superiority. Araphao a place chance.

Betting Strategy: Le Don De Vie 0.25 Units Win, 0.75 Units Place


Race 7 - G3 Toy Show Qlty 1100m Mares

A strong mares race here. Zapateo beat Jamaea in a trial and seems to be more progressive but overall, Jamaea has had stronger form and was clearly affected by the Sydney wet whereas Zapateo benefitted. If Belluci Babe can capture her form from the autumn, she is also right in this but I now suspect she was a big beneficiary of the tracks but she was very close in the Galaxy and about as competitve with Nature Strip as a horse of her profile could be. Dry ground here will certainly help Fituese and Smirnova is a horse with serious potential and little weight here.

Bet: No bet but an intriguing race


Race 8 - G1 Winx Stakes 1400m WFA

Anamoe has been trialling up a storm and is the best horse in this field (with the scratching of Duais) but he lost first up last prep, albeit kicks off at a more suitable distance. Mo'Unga in my eyes however is clearly the one to beat. Won this race last year defeating Verry Elleegant and was awesome behind a 1400m specialist in Sierra Sue in the Futurity. Forbidden Love is interesting because at her best, she wins this but she seems she needs it heavy 10 or roundabouts. Fangirl and Profondo were horses that did not enjoy the Sydney Heavy and both need to be considered here.

Bet: Mo'Unga 1 Unit Win


Race 9 - G2 Silver Shadow Stakes 1200m 3yoF

Another tough race to pick. I was very keen on Russian Conquest but she was scratched. Queen of the Ball was awesome any time she hit a dry deck, beating Revolutionary Miss by 4 here but the 2yo form so far has been sketchy. Snitcat is my next seed, who presents as a juicy place bet performing strongly against Coolangatta and Russian Conquest. Opal Ridge has had a strong start to her career only going down to Troach last start who was competitive in the Rosebud last week. In Secret is 2/2 on wet ground which is unusual as I Am Invincibles do not typically enjoy it. Willinga Beast however I suspect benefitted from the wet and the form around Revolutionary Miss so far has not been great. Also, Miyoshi beat Aft Cabin and is somehow 41s although, I am not sure I want a piece. Grace's Secret brings over very handy NZ form.

Bet: Queen of the Ball 0.5 Units Place, Snitcat 0.25 Units Place


Race 10 - BM78 1200m Hcp

Zarastro has had the ultimate gear change and strikes a good track back in Sydney. I tip this as the perfect bounce back race to show everyone he still has that ability. Pizarro was good last start against some solid horses and Arbitration is showing promise, albeit on wet decks. Larkspur Run has been in stronger grade but meets a strong BM78 here.

Bet: Zarastro 1 Unit Win


Betting Strategy

MV Race 3 - Shot of Irish 0.5 Units Place

MV Race 4 - Mimi's Award 0.5 Units Win

Rand Race 4 - Equation 0.5 Units Place

Rand Race 5 - Showmanship 1 Unit Win

Rand Race 6 - Le Don De Vie 0.25 Units Win, 0.75 Units Place

Rand Race 8 - Mo'Unga 1 Unit Win

Rand Race 9 - Queen Of The Ball 0.5 Units Place

Rand Race 9 - Snitcat 0.25 Units Place

Rand Race 10 - Zarastro 1 Unit Win

In total, that is 6.25 units outlayed for the 3rd week in a row. Just getting very consistent at this point. With $20 units, that is $125 outlayed.


Tipping

Moonee Valley

R1. 8 Little Miss Kubi - 10 Clarity - 1 Va Via - 9 Miss Subtly

R2. 7 Proscenium Arch - 5 Castillian - 8 Final Overture - 6 Islero

R3. 1 Forgot You - 8 Shot Of Irish - 6 Proconsent - 7 Rosseau

R4. 7 Mimi's Award - 8 Duke of Hastings - 2 Saracen Knight - 4 Pure Deal

R5. 9 Chester Warrior - 5 Foujita San - 8 Fast Witness - 2 El Padrino

R6. 5 Dirty Deeds - 7 Nerone - 2 Do You Reckon - 3 Global Gift

R7. 2 Mankayan - 6 Irish Flame - 10 Prix De Turn - Blue Cup

R8. 4 Extremely Lucky - 5 Bella Nipotina - 11 Esta La Roca - 3 Roch N Horse

R9. 6 The Garden - 2 Sacred Palace - 9 Zakat - 11 Sixbysixtythree


Randwick

R1. 5 Bandi's Boy - 4 Participator - 7 Optimo - 14 Robarge

R2. 6 Monfelicity - 4 So United - 2 Strawberry Rock - 3 Impulsar

R3. 17 My Truth - 1 Bazooka - 14 Scorched Land - 2 Buba

R4. 2 Equation - 5 Niffler - 8 Casino Kid - 12 I've Been Trying

R5. 6 Showmanship - 9 Prime Candidate - 2 King Of Sparta - 7 Chat

R6. 1 Le Don De Vie - 3 Lord Ardmore - 9 Grove Ferry - 8 Francesco Guardi

R7. 5 Jamaea - 10 Zapateo - 3 Fituese - 13 Smirnova

R8. 1 Mo'Unga - 3 Anamoe - 4 Profondo - 10 Fangirl

R9. 4 Queen Of The Ball - 7 In Secret - 8 Snitcat - Opal Ridge

R10. 5 Zarastro - 3 Pizarro - 13 Arbitration - 9 Larkspur Run


Doomben

R1. 5 Vaporizing - 14 Snappy Reply - 1 Carribean King - 7 Be Water My Friend

R2. 1 Hang Five - 4 Demon Delivera - 5 The Missionary - 2 Cool and Ready

R3. 4 Go Wandji - 8 Oakfield Twilight - 7 Wham - 5 Plenty

R4. 7 Za Ceibas - 9 Otyrar - 8 Contrition - 8 Brown Thomas

R5. 3 Daralina Belle - 6 Miss Divine Em - 12 Self Indulgent - 8 Miss McKinley

R6. 4 Get The Idea - 5 Aussie Nugget - 11 Silent Agenda - 8 Jakama

R7. 13 Merimee - 11 Vendidit - 5 Jack The Lad - 12 Count The Coin

R8. 12 Rubamos - 8 Caffrey - 14 Fleet Dove - 7 Renouf

R9. 17 Bundyandcoke - 3 Desert Dreamer - 11 Maximum Output - 10 Factory Warrior


Murray Bridge

R1. 3 Kusu - 4 Lancelotto - 2 Karaka Kiwi - 7 Lady Wairua

R2. 4 Minola - 1 Lord Bouzeron - 2 Sait Eustace - 3 Smiling Assassin

R3. 2 Big Sue - 8 Revue - 1 Yuri Royale - 6 Moscow Red

R4. 5 Speak No Eagle - 8 Desired - 10 Madam Furphy - 7 Night of Delight

R5. 7 Influential Jack - 10 Kenyan Wonder - 11 My Khalifa - 4 Lakes Folly

R6. 8 Stadium Of Light - 1 Montepulciano - 6 Race Against Time - 5 Dazzling Prospect

R7. 5 War Correspondent - 4 Thompsons Reward - 11 Wolflands - 9 Extra Mile

R8. 13 Intrepid Eagle - 1 Two Times Twice - 8 Maracourt - 9 Sugar and Sweet

R9. 1 Cheloon - 3 Disco Tilmorn - 9 Fields of Athenry - 5 Barbaline


Belmont

R1. 1 It's All A Rumour - 2 Rejuva King - 6 Uncle Gerrard - 5 Union Jack

R2. 1 Astro Warrior - 5 Keep Attacking - 2 Kick A Goal Son - 3 Reign of Fire

R3. 3 Mercanto - 1 Mood Swings - 5 Corn Cob - 6 Glasgow Girl

R4. 8 The Anvil - 1 Double Jeopardy - 7 Born To Rule - 3 Agent Jay

R5. 4 Crescent City - 7 Miss Maranta - 3 Sugar Cain - 6 Bold Success

R6. 7 Alsephina - 1 Lets Galahvant - 3 Strike Now - 5 Cold Shizzle

R7. 8 Advanced - 9 Kohli - 7 Little Flirt - 3 Position of Power

R8. 8 Savage One - 4 Ginger Flyer - 7 Phanta - 2 Tellem We're Coming

R9. 9 Arcadia Grace - 8 Seduce Me - 1 Catalpa - 2 Mr Mt Walker

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